File 026321
Email Chain Discussion on Ranked Choice Voting and Electoral Reform (File 026321)
Email correspondence between Larry Summers and Eric Maskin discussing ranked choice voting (RCV) systems, their potential impact on electoral outcomes, voter turnout, and candidate positioning in American elections.
Summary
Lawrence Summers and Eric Maskin exchange detailed emails analyzing ranked choice voting as an alternative electoral system. Maskin explains the theoretical advantages of RCV in promoting centrist candidates compared to plurality voting, while Summers raises practical concerns about voter turnout impacts on minority communities and whether RCV would genuinely reduce polarization. The conversation references a meeting with Adam Friedman regarding voting reform implementation, with Summers noting he contributed $10,000 to the initiative.
From: Larry SummersSent: 9/12/2018 3:01:20 AMTo: jeeyacation@gmail.comSubject: Fwd: This morningImportance: HighMore than u may want to knowSent from my iPhonePlease direct all scheduling inquiries to my office at:Follow me on twitter @lhsummerswww.larrysummers.comBegin forwarded message:From: "Maskin, Eric"Date: September 11, 2018 at 10:24:21 PM EDTTo: LHSSubject: RE: This morningI believe there are, but don't know how careful they are. I will try to get you references.From: LHS <Sent: Tuesday, September 11, 2018 10:23 PMTo: Maskin, Eric <11Cc: lhsofficeSubject: Re: This morningAre there empirical studies on turnout.Sent from my iPhonePlease direct all scheduling inquiries to my office at:Follow me on twitter @lhsummerswww.larrysummers.comOn Sep 11, 2018, at 10:20 PM, Maskin, Eric < > wrote:Yes, we can expect more extremists to run under RCV. But also more centrists (e.g., Bloomberg). Since the centrists arecloser to the median voter, they will defeat the extremists.The evidence I have seen suggests that RCV increases turn-out. [But it's important that voters be given the choice torank as many or few candidates as they like, so that a voter always has the option of voting for a single candidate (ineffect, he would be ranking all other candidates as tied for second). In practice, most voters choose to rank two or threecandidates, but a significant fraction just rank one]HOUSE OVERSIGHT 026321In fact the increase in the diversity of candidates under RCV is related to turn-out. If RCV had been used in 2016, BernieSanders could have run as an independent in the general election without fear of guaranteeing a Trump victory. Manyof the Bernie supporters who stayed home on election day might then have voted---and presumably would have rankedClinton second. This would have given her a victory over Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (and possiblyelsewhere).EricFrom: LHS ______________________________Sent: Tuesday, September 11, 2018 7:52 PMTo: Maskin, EricCc: lhsofficeSubject: Re: This morningI get that formal argumentWhat about aspects not quite in model.More folk will run from extremes if they can attract more First run votes. Candidates can position a bit.Separately I pitched this to someone today.He said he had heard that because of its greater complexity African American and lower income turnout was depressed.Is there evidence on turnout impacts?Sent from my iPhonePlease direct all scheduling inquiries to my office at:Follow me on twitter @lhsummerswww.larrysummers.comOn Sep 11, 2018, at 6:05 PM, Maskin, Eric ____________________________________ wrote:Hi Larry,Thank you very much for taking the meeting this morning. I'm glad you found it worthwhile, and I agree with you thatAdam Friedman's commitment to the project is impressive.I AM serious about working on this---it's a nice opportunity to make important practical use of some interesting theory.Voting rules may seem nerdy and dry, but they can make an enormous difference to actual politicsThe formal argument that RCV promotes centrism better than the current system (plurality rule) is straightforward.Suppose that most voters vote ideologically in the sense that the closer a candidate is to their own position on the left-right spectrum, the more like they are to vote for him. Then under majority rule (my favorite voting system)---in whichvoters rank candidates and the winner is the candidate who beats all other in pairwise comparisons----the winner will bethe median voter's favorite candidate -----in other words, the most centrist candidate gets elected (this assumes thatthere are enough candidates running so that there is one who is reasonably close to the median voter). Now observethat RCV is in between majority rule and plurality rule, and so will promote centrism better than plurality rule.Best wishes, EricHOUSE OVERSIGHT 026322From: LHS ._____________________________________Sent: Tuesday, September 11, 2018 4:16 PMTo: Maskin, EricCc: IhsofficeSubject: This morningIt was fun and interesting.I admire your friends determination.Are you serious about working on this?Has anyone done a full analysis of this and polarization.Seems like on one hand it might encourage Ralph Nader cuz he d get more first round votes and not elect Georgebush. This might be bad.On other hand, gore would not have to move left to take Nader vote.If I like centrism is it clear that this is better.I get that it avoids arbitrary outcomes but assume that a tea party nut is as likely to elect a dem as a lefty is to elect et arepublican.Anyway thanks for setting up.Btw I gave them 10,000.LarrySent from my iPadPlease direct all scheduling inquiries to my office at:Follow me on twitter @Ihsummerswww.larrysummers.comHOUSE OVERSIGHT 026323