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Paul Morris
7/2/2019 4:24:45 PM
jeevacation@gmail.com
Capital Market Outlook
Capital Market Outlook
Chief Investment Office
Capital Market Outlook from our Chief Investment Office
delivers a balanced mix of macroeconomic insights and
global market views, with in-depth analysis from the CIO's
investment strategists and analysts. It offers timely
commentary that can help you navigate markets and take
advantage of emerging trends across the globe.
This week's topics are:
• Macro Strategy: Why 2%? — While Federal
Reserve policy has always been focused on the goal of
price stability, the specific meaning of price stability has
been refined over the years from a general and non-
specified, vague concept to the current very specific
quantitative definition of a 2% long-run average for the
personal consumption expenditures deflator. We describe
the evolution and rationale for the more specific target.
• Global Market View: Global R&D: From Apollo,
to Apple, to Alibaba? — The recent unfolding tech cold
war between the U.S. and China will likely only accelerate
the pace of spending on global research and development
as the two parties vie for technological supremacy. China
faces significant technological hurdles, while the U.S.
needs to rethink and rebalance the role of public and
private sector research and development spending.
• Thought of the Week: A Golden Diversifier —
Gold's recent outperformance versus the U.S. dollar has
potentially triggered a bullish technical pattern. In our
Paul Morris
Managing Director
Private Wealth Manager
Merrill Private Wealth Management
ONE BRYANT PARK
STE 28TH FLOOR
NEW YORK, NY 10036
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view, the market's expectation for looser monetary policy
together with recent comments by President Trump
implying a desire for a weaker greenback have been
tailwinds. In addition to these drivers, we view gold as an
appealing diversifier in light of elevated geopolitical risks.
However, a comprehensive trade deal between the U.S.
and China would likely constitute a more significant
headwind for the yellow metal.
Find out more in this edition of Capital Market Outlook,
and feel free to contact us with any questions you have
about our market views.
Sincerely,
Paul
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