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USA Inc.
About USA Inc.
Created and Compiled by Mary Meeker
February 2011
This report looks at the federal government as if it were a business, with the goal of informing the
debate about our nation’s financial situation and outlook. In it, we examine USA Inc.’s income
statement and balance sheet. We aim to interpret the underlying data and facts and illustrate
patterns and trends in easy-to-understand ways. We analyze the drivers of federal revenue and
the history of expense growth, and we examine basic scenarios for how America might move
toward positive cash flow.
Thanks go out to Liang Wu and Fred Miller and former Morgan Stanley colleagues whose
contributions to this report were invaluable. In addition, Richard Ravitch, Emil Henry, Laura
Tyson, Al Gore, Meg Whitman, John Cogan, Peter Orszag and Chris Liddell provided inspiration
and insights as the report developed. It includes a 2-page foreword; a 12-page text summary;
and 460 PowerPoint slides containing data-rich observations. There’s a lot of material – think of
it as a book that happens to be a slide presentation.
We hope the slides in particular provide relevant context for the debate about America’s
financials. To kick-start the dialogue, we are making the entire slide portion of the report
available as a single work for non-commercial distribution (but not for excerpting, or modifying or
creating derivatives) under the Creative Commons license. The spirit of connectivity and sharing
has become the essence of the Internet, and we encourage interested parties to use the slides to
advance the discussion of America’s financial present and future. If you would like to add your
own data-driven observations, contribute your insights, improve or clarify ours, please contact us
to request permission and provide your suggestions. This document is only a starting point for
discussion; the information in it will benefit greatly from your thoughtful input.
This report is available online and on iPad at www.kpcb.com/usainc
In addition, print copies are available at www.amazon.com
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USA Inc.
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Foreword
George P. Shultz, Paul Volcker, Michael Bloomberg, Richard Ravitch and John Doerr
February 2011
Our country is in deep financial trouble. Federal, state and local governments are deep in debt
yet continue to spend beyond their means, seemingly unable to stop. Our current path is simply
unsustainable. What to do?
A lot of people have offered suggestions and proposed solutions. Few follow the four key
guideposts to success that we see for setting our country back on the right path:
1) create a deep and widely held perception of the reality of the problem and the stakes involved;
2) reassure citizens that there are practical solutions;
3) develop support in key constituencies; and
4) determine the right timing to deliver the solutions.
USA Inc. uses each of these guideposts, and more; it is full of ideas that can help us build a
better future for our children and our country.
First, Mary Meeker and her co-contributors describe America’s problems in an imaginative way
that should allow anyone to grasp them both intellectually and emotionally. By imagining the
federal government as a company, they provide a simple framework for understanding our
current situation. They show how deficits are piling up on our income statement as spending
outstrips income and how our liabilities far exceed nominal assets on our balance sheet. USA
Inc. also considers additional assets – hard to value physical assets and our intangible wealth –
our creativity and energy and our tradition of an open, competitive society.
Additionally, the report considers important trends, pointing specifically to an intolerable failure to
educate many in the K-12 grades, despite our knowledge of how to do so. And all these
important emotional arguments help drive a gut reaction to add to data provided to reinforce the
intellectual reasons we already have.
Second, USA Inc. provides a productive way to think about solving our challenges. Once we
have created an emotional and intellectual connection to the problem, we want people to act and
drive the solution, not to throw up their hands in frustration. The authors’ ingenious indirect
approach is to ask what a turnaround expert would do and what questions he or she would ask.
The report describes how we first stumbled into this mess, by failing to predict the magnitude of
program costs, by creating perverse incentives for excessive behavior, and by missing important
trends. By pointing to the impact of individual responsibility, USA Inc. gives us reason to believe
that a practical solution exists and can be realized.
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Third, the report highlights how powerful bipartisan constituencies have emerged in the past to
tackle great issues for the betterment of our nation, including tax reform, civil liberties,
healthcare, education and national defense. Just as presidents of both parties rose to the
occasion to preside over the difficult process of containment during the half-century cold war, we
know we can still find leaders who are willing to step up and overcome political or philosophical
differences for a good cause, even in these difficult times.
Finally, the report makes an important contribution to the question of timing. Momentum will
follow once the process begins to gain support, and USA Inc. should help by stimulating broad
recognition and understanding of the challenges, by providing ways to think about solutions, and
by helping constituencies of action to emerge. As the old saying goes, “If not now, when? If not
us, who?”
With this pioneering report, we have a refreshing, business-minded approach to understanding
and addressing our nation’s future. Read on…you may be surprised by how much you learn. We
hope you will be motivated to help solve the problem!
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Table of Contents
About USA Inc. ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ii
Foreword ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ iii
Summary ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ vii
Introduction ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 5
High-Level Thoughts on Income Statement/Balance Sheet ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 25
Income Statement Drilldown ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 53
Entitlement Spending ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 72
Medicaid ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 94
Medicare ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 100
Unemployment Benefits ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 121
Social Security ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 129
Rising Debt Level and Interest Payments ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 142
Debt Level ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 145
Effective Interest Rates ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 161
Debt Composition ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 168
Periodic Large One-Time Charges ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 177
TARP ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 188
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 193
ARRA ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 200
Balance Sheet Drilldown ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 209
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What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 221
High-Level Thoughts on How to Turn Around USA Inc.’s Financial Outlook ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 237
Focus on Expenses ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 253
Reform Entitlement Programs ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 255
Restructure Social Security ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 256
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 268
Focus on Operating Efficiency ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 329
Review Wages & Benefits ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 335
Review Government Pension Plans ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 338
Review Role of Unions ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 342
Review Cost Structure & Headcount ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 345
Review Non-Core 'Business' for Out-Sourcing ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 349
Focus on Revenues ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 355
Drive Sustainable Economic Growth ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 356
Invest in Technology / Infrastructure / Education ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 366
Increase / Improve Employment ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 383
Improve Competitiveness ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 389
Consider Changing Tax Policies ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 395
Review Tax Rates ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 396
Reduce Subsidies / Tax Expenditures / Broaden Tax Base ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 400
Consequences of Inaction ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 413
Short-Term, Long-Term ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 415
Public Debt, Net Worth vs. Peers ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 416
Lessons Learned From Historical Debt Crisis ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 422
General Motors ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 431
Summary ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 437
Appendix ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ 453
Glossary ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ xix
Index
∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∙ xxvii
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Summary
Imagine for a moment that the United States government is a public corporation. Imagine
that its management structure, fiscal performance, and budget are all up for review. Now
imagine that you’re a shareholder in USA Inc. How do you feel about your investment?
Because 45% of us own shares in publicly traded companies, nearly half the country expects
quarterly updates on our investments. But although 100% of us are stakeholders in the United
States, very few of us look closely at Washington’s financials. If we were long-term investors,
how would we evaluate the federal government’s business model, strategic plans, and operating
efficiency? How would we react to its earnings reports? Nearly two-thirds of all American
households pay federal income taxes, but very few of us take the time to dig into the numbers of
the entity that, on average, collects 13% of our annual gross income (not counting another 15-
30% for payroll and various state and local taxes).
We believe it’s especially important to pay closer attention to one of our most important
investments.
As American citizens and taxpayers, we care about the future of our country. As investors, we’re
in an on-going search for data and insights that will help us make more informed investment
decisions. It’s easier to predict the future if one has a keen understanding of the past, but we
found ourselves struggling to find good information about America’s financials. So we decided to
assemble – in one place and in a user-friendly format – some of the best data about the world’s
biggest “business.” We also provide some historical context for how USA Inc.’s financial model
has evolved over decades. And, as investors, we look at trend lines which help us understand
the patterns (and often future directions) of key financial drivers like revenue and expenses.
The complexity of USA Inc.’s challenges is well known, and our presentation is just a starting
point; it’s far from perfect or complete. But we are convinced that citizens – and investors –
should understand the business of their government. Thomas Jefferson and Alexis de
Tocqueville knew that – armed with the right information – the enlightened citizenry of America
would make the right decisions. It is our humble hope that a transparent financial framework can
help inform future debates.
In the conviction that every citizen should understand the finances of USA Inc. and the plans of
its “management team,” we examine USA Inc.’s income statement and balance sheet and
present them in a basic, easy-to-use format. We summarize our thoughts in PowerPoint form and
in this brief text summary at www.kpcb.com/usainc. We encourage people to take our data and
thoughts and study them, critique them, augment them, share them, and make them better.
There’s a lot of material – think of it as a book that happens to be a slide presentation.
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There are two caveats. First, we do not make policy recommendations. We try to help clarify
some of the issues in a straightforward, analytical way. We aim to present data, trends, and facts
about USA Inc.’s key revenue and expense drivers to provide context for how its financials have
reached their present state. Our observations come from publicly available information, and we
use the tools of basic financial analysis to interpret it. Forecasts generally come from 3rd-party
agencies like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the nonpartisan federal agency charged
with reviewing the financial impact of legislation. Second, the ‘devil is in the details.’ For US
policy makers, the timing of material changes will be especially difficult, given the current
economic environment.
By the standards of any public corporation, USA Inc.’s financials are discouraging.
True, USA Inc. has many fundamental strengths. On an operating basis (excluding Medicare
and Medicaid spending and one-time charges), the federal government’s profit & loss statement
is solid, with a 4% median net margin over the last 15 years. But cash flow is deep in the red (by
almost $1.3 trillion last year, or -$11,000 per household), and USA Inc.’s net worth is negative
and deteriorating. That net worth figure includes the present value of unfunded entitlement
liabilities but not hard-to-value assets such as natural resources, the power to tax or mint
currency, or what Treasury calls “heritage” or “stewardship assets” like national parks.
Nevertheless, the trends are clear, and critical warning signs are evident in nearly every data
point we examine.
F2010 Cash Flow = -$1.3 Trillion; Net Worth = -$44 Trillion
With a Negative Trend Line Over Past 15 Years
USA Inc. Annual Cash Flow & Year-End Net Worth, F1996 – F2010
$400
$15,000
Annual Cash Flow ($Billion)
$0
-$400
-$800
-$1,200
One-Time Expenses*
Cash Flow (left axis)
$0
-$15,000
-$30,000
-$45,000
Year-End Net Worth ($Billion)
Net Worth (right axis)
-$1,600
-$60,000
F1996 F1998 F2000 F2002 F2004 F2006 F2008 F2010
Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September; Cash flow = total revenue – total spending on a cash basis; net worth includes unfunded future liabilities from
Social Security and Medicare on an accrual basis over the next 75 years. *One-time expenses in F2008 include $14B payments to Freddie Mac; F2009
includes $279B net TARP payouts, $97B payment to Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac and $40B stimulus spending on discretionary items; F2010E includes $26B
net TARP income, $137B stimulus spending and $41B payment to Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. F2010 net worth improved dramatically owing to revised
actuarial estimates for Medicare program resulted from the Healthcare reform legislation. For more definitions, see next slide. Source: cash flow per White
House Office of Management and Budget; net worth per Dept. of Treasury, “2010 Financial Report of the U.S. Government.”
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USA Inc. | Summary
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Underfunded entitlements are among the most severe financial burdens USA Inc. faces.
And because some of the most underfunded programs are intended to help the nation’s
poorest, the electorate must understand the full dimensions of the challenges.
F2010 USA Inc. Revenues + Expenses At A Glance
Unfunded Entitlement (Medicare + Social Security) + Underfunded
Entitlement Expenditures (Medicaid) =
Among Largest Long-Term Liabilities on USA Inc.'s Balance Sheet
Corporate
Income Tax
$191B
F2010
Revenues =
$2.2T
Other
$208B
10%
9%
41%
Individual
Income Tax
$899B
Discretionary
One-Time Items
$152B
Non-Defense
Discretionary
$431B
F2010 USA Inc. Expenses =
$3.5T
12%
20%
Net Interest
Payment
$196B
6%
4%
20%
Entitlement
Programs
22%
Social
Security
$707B
All
Other
Federal
Employee
Benefits
$1.6T $2.1T
Veteran
Benefits
USA Balance Sheet Liabilities Composition, F2010
Federal
Debt
Unfunded
Social
Security
$3.7T $9.1T $7.9T
Unfunded
Medicare
$22.8T
Medicaid*
$35.3T
40%
Social
Insurance Tax
$865B
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Defense
$694B
16%
Medicare +
Federal
Medicaid
$724B
Unemployment Insurance
+ Other Entitlements
$553B
Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September; *individual & corporate income taxes include capital gains taxes. Nondefense
discretionary includes federal spending on education, infrastructure, law enforcement, judiciary functions…
Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Summary
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Note: Medicaid funding is appropriated by Congress (from general tax revenue) on an as-needed basis every year, therefore,
there is no need to maintain a contingency reserve, and, unlike Medicare, the “financial status” of the program is not in question
from an actuarial perspective. Here we estimated the net present value of future Medicaid spending through 2085E, assuming a
3% discount rate. Data source: Dept. of Treasury, Dept. of Health & Human Services Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
USA Inc. | Summary
Some consider defense outlays – which have nearly doubled in the last decade, to 5% of GDP –
a principal cause of USA Inc.’s financial dilemma. But defense spending is still below its 7%
share of GDP from 1948 to 2000; it accounted for 20% of the budget in 2010, compared with
41% of all government spending between 1789 and 1930. The principal challenges lie
elsewhere. Since the Great Depression, USA Inc. has steadily added “business lines” and, with
the best of intentions, created various entitlement programs. They serve many of the nation’s
poorest, whose struggles have been made worse by the recent financial crisis. Apart from Social
Security and unemployment insurance, however, funding for these programs has been woefully
inadequate – and getting worse.
Entitlement expenses amount to $16,000 per household per year, and entitlement spending far
outstrips funding, by more than $1 trillion (or $9,000 per household) in 2010. More than 35% of
the US population receives entitlement dollars or is on the government payroll, up from ~20% in
1966. Given the high correlation of rising entitlement income with declining savings, do
Americans feel less compelled to save if they depend on the government for their future savings?
It is interesting to note that in China the household savings rate is ~36%, per our estimates
based on CEIC data, in part due to a higher degree of self-reliance – and far fewer established
pension plans. In the USA, the personal savings rate (defined as savings as percent of
disposable income) was 6% in 2010 and only 3% from 2000 to 2008.
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Millions of Americans have come to rely on Medicare and Medicaid – and spending has
skyrocketed, to 21% of USA Inc.’s total expenses (or $724B) in F2010, up from 5% forty
years ago.
Together, Medicaid and Medicare – the programs providing health insurance to low-income
households and the elderly, respectively – now account for 35% of total healthcare spending in
the USA. Since their creation in 1965, both programs have expanded markedly. Medicaid now
serves 16% of all Americans, compared with 2% at its inception; Medicare now serves 15% of
the population, up from 10% in 1966. As more Americans receive benefits and as healthcare
costs continue to outstrip GDP growth, total spending for the two entitlement programs is
accelerating. Over the last decade alone, Medicaid spending has doubled in real terms, with
total program costs running at $273 billion in F2010. Over the last 43 years, real Medicare
spending per beneficiary has risen 25 times, driving program costs well (10x) above original
projections. In fact, Medicare spending exceeded related revenues by $272 billion last year.
Amid the rancor about government’s role in healthcare spending, one fact is undeniable:
government spending on healthcare now consumes 8.2% of GDP, compared with just
1.3% fifty years ago.
Total Government* Healthcare Spending Increases are Staggering –
Up 7x as % of GDP Over Five Decades vs. Education Spending Only Up 0.6x
8%
USA Total Government Healthcare vs. Education Spending as % of GDP, 1960 – 2009
8.2%
Spending as % of GDP
6%
4%
2%
1.2%
Total Government (Federal + State + Local) Spending on Healthcare
Total Government (Federal + State + Local) Spending on Education
0%
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
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Note: *Total government spending on healthcare includes Medicare, Medicaid and other programs such as federal
employee and veteran health benefits; total government spending on education includes spending on pre-primary through
tertiary education programs. Source: Dept. of Education, Dept. of Health & Human Services.
USA Inc. | Summary
The overall healthcare funding mix in the US is skewed toward private health insurance due to
the predominance of employer-sponsored funding (which covers 157MM working Americans and
their families, or 58% of the total population in 2008 vs. 64% in 1999). This mixed private-public
funding scheme has resulted in implicit cross-subsidies, whereby healthcare providers push
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costs onto the private market to help subsidize lower payments from public programs. This
tends to help drive a cycle of higher private market costs causing higher insurance premiums,
leading to the slow erosion of private market coverage and a greater enrollment burden for
government programs.
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, enacted in early 2010, includes the biggest
changes to healthcare since 1965 and will eventually expand health insurance coverage by
~10%, to 32 million new lives. Increased access likely means higher spending if healthcare
costs continue to grow 2 percentage points faster than per capita income (as they have over the
past 40 years). The CBO sees a potential $143B reduction in the deficit over the next 10 years,
but this assumes that growth in Medicare costs will slow – an assumption the CBO admits is
highly uncertain.
Unemployment Insurance and Social Security are adequately funded...for now. Their
future, unfortunately, isn’t so clear.
Unemployment Insurance is cyclical and, apart from the 2007-09 recession, generally operates
with a surplus. Payroll taxes kept Social Security mainly at break-even until 1975-81 when
expenses began to exceed revenue. Reforms that cut average benefits by 5%, raised tax rates
by 2.3%, and increased the full retirement age by 3% (to 67) restored the system’s stability for
the next 25 years, but the demographic outlook is poor for its pay-as-you-go funding structure. In
1950, 100 workers supported six beneficiaries; today, 100 workers support 33 beneficiaries.
Since Social Security began in 1935, American life expectancy has risen 26% (to 78), but the
“retirement age” for full benefits has increased only 3%.
Regardless of the emotional debate about entitlements, fiscal reality can’t be ignored – if
these programs aren’t reformed, one way or another, USA Inc.’s balance sheet will go
from bad to worse.
Federal Government Spending Had Risen to 24% of GDP in 2010,
Up From an Average of 3% From 1790 to 1930
Federal Government Spending as % of GDP, 1790 – 2010
40%
35%
Federal Spending as % of GDP
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
3% Trendline Average
1790-1930
24% in 2010
5%
0%
1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
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Source: Federal spending per Series Y 457-465 in "Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, Part II“ and per
White House OMB. GDP prior to 1930 per Louis Johnston and Samuel H. Williamson, "What Was the U.S. GDP Then?"
MeasuringWorth, 2010. GDP post 1930 per White House OMB. Neither federal spending nor GDP data are adjusted for inflation.
USA Inc. | Summary
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USA Inc.
xi
Entitlement Spending Increased 11x
While Real GDP Grew 3x Over Past 45 Years
USA Real Federal Expenses, Entitlement Spending, Real GDP % Change, 1965 – 2010
% Change From 1965
1200%
1000%
800%
600%
400%
200%
Total Expenses
Entitlement Programs
Real GDP
Entitlement
Expenses
+10.6x
Total
Expenses
+3.3x
Real GDP
+2.7x
0%
1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
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Note: Data adjusted for inflation. Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Summary
Take a step back, and imagine what the founding fathers would think if they saw how our
country’s finances have changed. From 1790 to 1930, government spending on average
accounted for just 3% of American GDP. Today, government spending absorbs closer to 24% of
GDP.
It’s likely that they would be even more surprised by the debt we have taken on to pay for this
expansion. As a percentage of GDP, the federal government’s public debt has doubled over the
last 30 years, to 53% of GDP. This figure does not include claims on future resources from
underfunded entitlements and potential liabilities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the
Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs). If it did include these claims, gross federal debt
accounted for 94% of GDP in 2010. The public debt to GDP ratio is likely to triple to 146% over
the next 20 years, per CBO. The main reason is entitlement expense. Since 1970, these costs
have grown 5.5 times faster than GDP, while revenues have lagged, especially corporate tax
revenues. By 2037, cumulative deficits from Social Security could add another $11.6 trillion to
the public debt.
The problem gets worse. Even as USA Inc.’s debt has been rising for decades, plunging interest
rates have kept the cost of supporting it relatively steady. Last year’s interest bill would have
been 155% (or $290 billion) higher if rates had been at their 30-year average of 6% (vs. 2% in
2010). As debt levels rise and interest rates normalize, net interest payments could grow 20% or
more annually. Below-average debt maturities in recent years have also kept the Treasury’s
borrowing costs down, but this trend, too, will drive up interest payments once interest rates rise.
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USA Inc.
xii
Can we afford to wait until the turning point comes? By 2025, entitlements plus net
interest payments will absorb all – yes, all – of USA Inc.'s revenue, per CBO.
Entitlement Spending + Interest Payments Alone Should
Exceed USA Inc. Total Revenue by 2025E, per CBO
Entitlement Spending + Interest Payments vs. Revenue as % of GDP, 1980 – 2050E
Total Revenue & Entitlement + Net Interest
Payments as % of GDP
40%
30%
20%
10%
Revenue
Entitlement Spending + Net
Interest Payments
0%
1980 1990 2000 2010E 2020E 2030E 2040E 2050E
Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Long-Term Budget Outlook (6/10). Note that entitlement spending includes federal government expenditures on Social
Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Data in our chart is based on CBO’s ‘alternative fiscal scenario’ forecast, which assumes a continuation of today’s underlying
fiscal policy. Note that CBO also maintains an ‘extended-baseline’ scenario, which adheres closely to current law. The alternative fiscal scenario deviates from
CBO’s baseline because it incorporates some policy changes that are widely expected to occur (such as extending the 2001-2003 tax cuts rather than letting them
expire as scheduled by current law and adjusting physician payment rates to be in line with the Medicare economic index rather than at lower scheduled rates) and
that policymakers have regularly made in the past.
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USA Inc. | Summary
Less than 15 years from now, in other words, USA Inc. – based on current forecasts for revenue
and expenses - would have nothing left over to spend on defense, education, infrastructure, and
R&D, which today account for only 32% of USA Inc. spending, down from 69% forty years ago.
This critical juncture is getting ever closer. Just ten years ago, the CBO thought federal revenue
would support entitlement spending and interest payments until 2060 – 35 years beyond its
current projection. This dramatic forecast change over the past ten years helps illustrate, in our
view, how important it is to focus on the here-and-now trend lines and take actions based on
those trends.
How would a turnaround expert determine ‘normal’ revenue and expenses?
The first step would be to examine the main drivers of revenue and expenses. It’s not a pretty
picture. While revenue – mainly taxes on individual and corporate income – is highly correlated
(83%) with GDP growth, expenses – mostly entitlement spending – are less correlated (73%)
with GDP. With that as backdrop, our turnaround expert might try to help management and
shareholders (citizens) achieve a long-term balance by determining “normal” levels of revenue
and expenses:
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USA Inc.
xiii
• From 1965 to 2005 (a period chosen to exclude abnormal trends related to the recent
recession), annual revenue growth (3%) has been roughly in line with GDP growth, but
corporate income taxes have grown 2% a year. Social insurance taxes grew 5% annually and
represented 37% of USA Inc. revenue, compared with 19% in 1965. An expert might ask:
o What level of social insurance or entitlement taxes can USA Inc. support without reducing
job creation?
o Are low corporate income taxes important to global competitive advantage and stimulating
growth?
• Entitlement spending has risen 5% a year on average since 1965, well above average annual
GDP growth of 3%, and now absorbs 51% of all expenses, more than twice its share in 1965.
Defense and non-defense discretionary spending (including infrastructure, education, and law
enforcement) is up just 1-2% annually over that period. Questions for shareholders:
o Do USA Inc.’s operations run at maximum efficiency? Where are the opportunities for cost
savings?
o Should all expense categories be benchmarked against GDP growth? Should some grow
faster or slower than GDP? If so, what are the key determinants?
o Would greater investment in infrastructure, education, and global competitiveness yield
more long-term security for the elderly and disadvantaged?
With expenses outstripping revenues by a large (and growing) margin, a turnaround expert
would develop an analytical framework for readjusting USA Inc.’s business model and strategic
plans. Prudence would dictate that our expert assume below-trend GDP growth and above-trend
unemployment, plus rising interest rates – all of which would make the base case operating
scenario fairly gloomy.
This analysis can’t ignore our dependence on entitlements. Almost one-third of all
Americans have grown up in an environment of lean savings and heavy reliance on
government healthcare subsidies. It’s not just a question of numbers – it’s a question of
our responsibilities as citizens…and what kind of society we want to be.
Some 90 million Americans (out of a total population of 307 million) have grown accustomed to
support from entitlement programs; so, too, have 14 million workers in the healthcare industry
who, directly or indirectly, benefit from government subsidies via Medicare and Medicaid. Low
personal savings and high unemployment make radical change difficult. Political will can be
difficult to summon, especially during election campaigns.
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USA Inc.
xiv
At the same time, however, these numbers don’t lie. With our demographics and our
debts, we’re on a collision course with the future. The good news: Although time is
growing short, we still have the capacity to create positive outcomes.
Even though USA Inc. can print money and raise taxes, USA Inc. cannot sustain its financial
imbalance indefinitely – especially as the Baby Boomer generation nears retirement age. Net
debt levels are approaching warning levels, and some polls suggest that Americans consider
reducing debt a national priority. Change is legally possible. Unlike underfunded pension
liabilities that can bankrupt companies, USA Inc.’s underfunded liabilities are not legal contracts.
Congress has the authority to change the level and conditions for Social Security and Medicare
benefits; the federal government, together with the states, can also alter eligibility and benefit
levels for Medicaid.
Options for entitlement reform, operating efficiency, and stronger long-term GDP growth.
As analysts, not public policy experts, we can offer mathematical illustrations as a framework for
discussion (not necessarily as actual solutions). We also present policy options from third-party
organizations such as the CBO.
Reforming entitlement programs – Social Security.
The underfunding could be addressed through some or all of the following mechanical changes:
increasing the full retirement age to as high as 73 (from the current level of 67); and/or reducing
average annual social security benefits by up to 12% (from $13,010 to $11,489); and/or
increasing the social security tax rate from 12.4% to 14.2%. Options proposed by the CBO
include similar measures, as well as adjustments to initial benefits and index levels. Of course,
the low personal savings rates of average Americans – 3% of disposable income, compared with
a 10% average from 1965 to 1985 – limit flexibility, at least in the early years of any reform.
Reforming entitlement programs – Medicare and Medicaid.
Mathematical illustrations for these programs, the most underfunded, seem draconian: Reducing
average Medicare benefits by 53%, to $5,588 per year, or increasing the Medicare tax rate by
3.9 percentage points, to 6.8%, or some combination of these changes would address the
underfunding of Medicare. As for Medicaid, the lack of a dedicated funding stream (i.e., a tax
similar to the Medicare payroll tax) makes the math even more difficult. But by one measure
from the Kaiser Family Foundation, 60% of the Medicaid budget in 2001 was spent on so-called
optional recipients (such as mid- to low-income population above poverty level) or on optional
services (such as dental services and prescription drug benefits). Reducing or controlling these
benefits could help control Medicaid spending – but increase the burden on some poor and
disabled groups.
Ultimately, the primary issue facing the US healthcare system is ever-rising costs, historically
driven by increases in price and utilization. Beneath sustained medical cost inflation is an
entitlement mentality bolted onto a volume-based reimbursement scheme. All else being equal,
the outcome is an incentive to spend: Underlying societal, financial, and liability factors combine
to fuel an inefficient, expensive healthcare system.
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USA Inc.
xv
Improving operating efficiency.
With nearly one government civilian worker (federal, state and local) for every six households,
efficiency gains seem possible. A 20-year trend line of declining federal civilian headcount was
reversed in the late 1990s.
Resuming that trend would imply a 15% potential headcount reduction over five years and save
nearly $300 billion over the next ten years. USA Inc. could also focus intensively on local private
company outsourcing, where state and local governments are finding real productivity gains.
Improving long-term GDP growth – productivity and employment.
Fundamentally, federal revenues depend on GDP growth and related tax levies on consumers
and businesses. Higher GDP growth won’t be easy to achieve as households rebuild savings in
the aftermath of a recession. To break even without changing expense levels or tax policies,
USA Inc. would need real GDP growth of 6-7% in F2012-14 and 4-5% in F2015-20, according to
our estimates based on CBO data – highly unlikely, given 40-year average GDP growth of 3%.
While USA Inc. could temporarily increase government spending and investment to make up for
lower private demand in the near term, the country needs policies that foster productivity and
employment gains for sustainable long-term economic growth.
How Much Would Real GDP Need to Grow to Drive USA Inc. to Break-Even
Without Policy Changes? 6-7% in F2012E-F2014E & 4-5% in F2015-
F2020E…Well Above 40-Year Average of 3%
8%
CBO’s Baseline Real GDP Growth vs. Required Real GDP
Growth for a Balanced Budget Between F2011E and F2020E
6%
Real GDP Y/Y Growth (%)
4%
2%
0%
2009 2011E 2013E 2015E 2017E 2019E
-2%
-4%
Real GDP Annual Growth (CBO Baseline Forecast)
Real GDP Annual Growth Needed to Eliminate Fiscal Deficit
1970-2009 Average Real GDP Growth
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Source: CBO, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020,” 8/10.
USA Inc. | Summary
Productivity gains and increased employment each contributed roughly half of the long-term
GDP growth between 1970 and 2009, per the National Bureau of Economic Research. Since the
1960s, as more resources have gone to entitlements and interest payments, USA Inc. has
scaled back its investment in technology R&D and infrastructure as percentages of GDP.
Competitors are making these investments. India plans to double infrastructure spending as a
percent of GDP by 2013, and its tertiary (college) educated population will double over the next
ten years, according to Morgan Stanley analysts, enabling its GDP growth to accelerate to 9-
10% annually by 2015 (China’s annual GDP growth is forecast to remain near 8% by 2015).
USA Inc. can’t match India’s demographic advantage, but technology can help.
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USA Inc.
xvi
For employment gains, USA Inc. should minimize tax and regulatory uncertainties and
encourage businesses to add workers. While hiring and R&D-related tax credits may add to
near-term deficits, over time, they should drive job and GDP growth. Immigration reform could
also help: A Federal Reserve study in 2010 shows that immigration does not take jobs from
U.S.-born workers but boosts productivity and income per worker.
Changing tax policies.
Using another simple mechanical illustration, covering the 2010 budget deficit (excluding onetime
charges) by taxes alone would mean doubling individual income tax rates across the board,
to roughly 26-30% of gross income, we estimate. Such major tax increases would ultimately be
self-defeating if they reduce private income and consumption. However, reducing tax
expenditures and subsidies such as mortgage interest deductions would broaden the tax base
and net up to $1.7 trillion in additional revenue over the next decade, per CBO. A tax based on
consumption - like a value added tax (VAT) - could also redirect the economy toward savings
and investment, though there would be drawbacks.
These issues are undoubtedly complex, and difficult decisions must be made. But
inaction may be the greatest risk of all. The time to act is now, and our first responsibility
as investors in USA Inc. is to understand the task at hand.
Our review finds serious challenges in USA Inc.’s financials. The ‘management team’ has
created incentives to spend on healthcare, housing, and current consumption. At the margin,
investing in productive capital, education, and technology – the very tools needed to compete in
the global marketplace – has stagnated.
America’s Resources Allocated to Housing + Healthcare Nearly Doubled as a Percent
of GDP Since 1965, While Household and Government Savings Fell Dramatically
25%
20%
Healthcare + Housing Spending vs. Net Household +
Government Savings as % of GDP, 1965-2009
Housing + Healthcare Spending as % of GDP
Net Household + Government Savings as % of GDP
20%
As % of GDP
15%
10%
5%
11%
7%
0%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-5%
-10%
-9%
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Note: Housing includes purchase, rent and home improvement. Government savings occur when government runs a surplus.
Source: BEA, CMS via Haver Analytics.
USA Inc. | Summary
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USA Inc.
xvii
With these trends, USA Inc. will not be immune to the sudden crises that have afflicted others
with similar unfunded liabilities, leverage, and productivity trends. The sovereign credit issues in
Europe suggest what might lie ahead for USA Inc. shareholders – and our children. In effect,
USA Inc. is maxing out its credit card. It has fallen into a pattern of spending more than it earns
and is issuing debt at nearly every turn. Common principles for overcoming this kind of burden
include the following:
1) Acknowledge the problem – some 80% of Americans believe ‘dealing with our growing
budget deficit and national debt’ is a national priority, according to a Peter G. Peterson
Foundation survey in 11/09;
2) Examine past errors – People need clear descriptions and analysis to understand how the
US arrived at its current financial condition – a ‘turnaround CEO’ would certainly initiate a
‘no holds barred’ analysis of the purpose, success and operating efficiency of all of USA
Inc.’s spending;
3) Make amends for past errors – Most Americans today at least acknowledge the problems
at personal levels and say they rarely or never spend more than what they can afford (63%
according to a 2007 Pew Research study). The average American knows the importance
of managing a budget. Perhaps more would be willing to sacrifice for the greater good with
an understandable plan to serve the country’s long-term best interests;
4) Develop a new code of behavior – Policymakers, businesses (including investment firms),
and citizens need to share responsibility for past failures and develop a plan for future
successes.
Past generations of Americans have responded to major challenges with collective
sacrifice and hard work. Will ours also rise to the occasion?
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USA Inc. xviii
USA Inc. – Outline
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Introduction
High-Level Thoughts on Income Statement/Balance Sheet
Income Statement Drilldown
Balance Sheet Drilldown
What Might a Turnaround Expert – Empowered to Improve
USA Inc.’s Financials – Consider?
Consequences of Inaction
Summary
Appendix
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USA Inc.
2
This work is licensed for non-commercial distribution (but NOT for excerpting, or modifying or creating derivatives) under the Creative Commons
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported CC BY-NC-ND license. You can find this license at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-ncnd/3.0/legalcode
or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, CA, 94105, USA.
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USA Inc.
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USA Inc.
4
Introduction
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USA Inc. | Introduction
5
�About This Report
www.kpcb.com USA Inc. | Introduction 6
Presentation Premise
� For America to remain the great country it has been for the past 235 years,
it must determine the best ways to honor the government’s fundamental
mission derived from the Constitution:
� …to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility,
provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare and secure the
blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity.
� To this end, government should aim to help create a vibrant environment for
economic growth and productive employment. It should manage its operations
and programs as effectively and efficiently as possible, improve its financial
position by driving the federal government’s income statement to long-term
break-even, and reduce the unsustainable level of debt on its balance sheet.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Introduction
7
USA Inc. Concept
Healthy financials and compelling growth prospects are key to success for businesses
(and countries). So if the US federal government – which we call USA Inc. – were a
business, how would public shareholders view it? How would long-term investors evaluate
the federal government’s business model, strategic plans, and operating efficiency? How
would analysts react to its earnings reports? Although some 45% 1 of American households
own shares in publicly traded companies and receive related quarterly financial statements, not
many “stakeholders” look closely at Washington’s financials. Nearly two-thirds of all American
households 2 pay federal income taxes, but very few take the time to dig into the numbers of the
entity that, on average, collects 13% 3 of all Americans’ annual gross income (not counting
another 15-30% for payroll and various state and local taxes).
We drill down on USA Inc.’s past, present, and (in some cases) future financial dynamics and
focus on the country’s income statement and balance sheet and related trends. We isolate and
review key expense and revenue drivers. On the expense side, we examine the major
entitlement programs (Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security) as well as defense and other
major discretionary programs. On the revenue side, we focus on GDP growth (driven by labor
productivity and employment in the long run) and tax policies.
We present basic numbers-driven scenarios for addressing USA Inc.'s financial challenges. In
addition, we lay out the type of basic checklists that corporate turnaround experts might use as
starting points when looking at some of USA Inc.’s business model challenges.
Source: 1) 2008 ICI (Investment Company Institute) / SIFMA (Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) Equity
and Bond Owners Survey; 2) Number of tax returns with positive tax liability (91MM) divided by total number of returns filed (142MM), per Tax Foundation
calculations based on IRS data; 3) Total federal income taxes (ex. payroll taxes) paid divided by total adjusted gross income, per IRS 2007 data.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Introduction
8
Why We Wrote This Report
As American citizens / tax payers, we care about the future of our country.
As investors, we search for data and insights to help us make better
investment decisions. (It’s easier to predict the future with a keen
understanding of the past.)
We found ourselves searching for better information about the state of America’s
financials, and we decided to assemble – in one place and in a user-friendly format
– some of the best data about the world’s biggest “business.” In addition, we have
attempted to provide some historical context for how USA Inc.’s financial model has
evolved over decades.
The complexity of USA Inc.’s challenges is well known, and our presentation is just
a starting point; it’s far from perfect or complete. But we are convinced that citizens
– and investors – should understand the business of their government. Thomas
Jefferson and Alexis de Tocqueville knew that – armed with the right information –
the enlightened citizenry of America would make the right decisions. It is our
humble hope that a transparent financial framework can help inform future debates.
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USA Inc. | Introduction
9
What You’ll Find Here…
In the conviction that every citizen should understand the finances of
USA Inc. and the plans of its “management team,” we examine USA Inc.’s
income statement and balance sheet and present them in a basic, easy-touse
format.
In this document, a broad group of people helped us drill into our federal
government’s basic financial metrics. We summarize our thoughts in PowerPoint
form here and also have provided a brief text summary at www.kpcb.com/usainc.
We encourage people to take our data and thoughts and study them, critique them,
augment them, share them, and make them better. There’s a lot of material – think
of it as a book that happens to be a slide presentation.
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USA Inc. | Introduction
10
…And What You Won’t
We do not make policy recommendations. We try to help clarify some of the
issues in a simple, analytically-based way. We aim to present data, trends, and
facts about USA Inc.’s key revenue and expense drivers to provide context for
how its financials have reached their present state.
We did not base this analysis on proprietary data. Our observations come
from publicly available information, and we use the tools of basic financial
analysis to interpret it. Forecasts generally come from 3rd-party agencies like the
Congressional Budget Office (CBO). For US policy makers, the timing of material
changes will be especially difficult, given the current economic environment.
No doubt, there will be compliments and criticism of things in the
presentation (or missing from it). We hope that this report helps advance the
discussion and we welcome others to opine with views (backed up by data).
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Introduction
11
We Focus on Federal,
Not State & Local Government Data
� Federal / State & Local Governments Share Different Responsibilities
� Federal government is financially responsible for all or the majority of Defense, Social
Security, Medicare and Interest Payments on federal debt and coordinates / shares
funding for public investment in education / infrastructure.
� State & local governments are financially responsible for all or the majority of Education,
Transportation (Road Construction & Maintenance), Public Safety (Police / Fire
Protection / Law Courts / Prisons) and Environment & Housing (Parks & Recreation /
Community Development / Sewerage & Waste Management).
� Federal / state & local governments share financial responsibility in Medicaid and
Unemployment Insurance.
� We Focus on the Federal Government
� State and local governments face many similar long-term financial challenges and may
ultimately require federal assistance. To be sure, the size of state & local government
budget deficits ($70 billion 1 in aggregate in F2009) and debt-to-GDP ratio (7% 2 on
average in F2008) pales by comparison to the federal government’s ($1.3 trillion budget
deficit, 62% debt-to-GDP ratio in F2010). But these metrics may understate state & local
governments’ financial challenges by 50% or more 3 because they exclude the long-term
cost of public pension and other post employment benefit (OPEB) liabilities.
www.kpcb.com
Note: 1) Per National Conference of State Legislatures, State fiscal years ends in June. $70B aggregate excludes deficits
from Puerto Rico ($3B deficits in F2009). 2) Debt-to-GDP ratio per Census Bureau State & Local Government Finance; 3)
Calculation based on the claim that $1T of collective short fall in State & local government pension and OPEB funding
would be $2.5T using corporate accounting rules, per Orin S. Kramer, “How to Cheat a Retirement Fund,” 9/10.
USA Inc. | Introduction
12
�Summary
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USA Inc. | Introduction
13
Highlights from F2010 USA Inc. Financials
� Summary – USA Inc. has challenges.
� Cash Flow – While recession depressed F2008-F2010 results, cash flow has been negative
for 9 consecutive years ($4.8 trillion, cumulative), with no end to losses in sight. Negative
cash flow implies that USA Inc. can't afford the services it is providing to 'customers,' many
of whom are people with few alternatives.
� Balance Sheet – Net worth is negative and deteriorating.
� Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities – Off-balance sheet liabilities of at least $31 trillion (primarily
unfunded Medicare and Social Security obligations) amount to nearly $3 for every $1 of debt
on the books. Just as unfunded corporate pensions and other post-employment benefits
(OPEB) weigh on public corporations, unfunded entitlements, over time, may increase USA
Inc.’s cost of capital. And today’s off-balance sheet liabilities will be tomorrow’s on-balance
sheet debt.
� Conclusion – Publicly traded companies with similar financial trends would be pressed by
shareholders to pursue a turnaround. The good news: USA Inc.’s underlying asset base and
entrepreneurial culture are strong. The financial trends can shift toward a positive direction,
but both ‘management’ and ‘shareholders’ will need collective focus, willpower, commitment,
and sacrifice.
Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September; Cash flow = total revenue – total spending on a cash basis; net worth includes
unfunded future liabilities from Social Security and Medicare on an accrual basis over the next 75 years. Source: cash flow per
White House Office of Management and Budget; net worth per Dept. of Treasury, “2010 Financial Report of the U.S.
www.kpcb.com
Government,” adjusted to include unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare.
USA Inc. | Introduction
14
Drilldown on USA Inc. Financials…
� To analysts looking at USA Inc. as a public corporation, the financials are challenged
�
Excluding Medicare / Medicaid spending and one-time charges, USA Inc. has supported a 4% average net
margin 1 over 15 years, but cash flow is deep in the red by negative $1.3 trillion last year (or
-$11,000 per household), and net worth 2 is negative $44 trillion (or -$371,000 per household).
� The main culprits: entitlement programs, mounting debt, and one-time charges
�
�
�
Since the Great Depression, USA Inc. has steadily added “business lines” and, with the best of intentions,
created various entitlement programs. Some of these serve the nation’s poorest, whose struggles have
been made worse by the financial crisis. Apart from Social Security and unemployment insurance,
however, funding for these programs has been woefully inadequate – and getting worse.
Entitlement expenses (adjusted for inflation) rose 70% over the last 15 years, and USA Inc. entitlement
spending now equals $16,600 per household per year; annual spending exceeds dedicated funding by
more than $1 trillion (and rising). Net debt levels are approaching warning levels, and one-time charges
only compound the problem.
Some consider defense spending a major cause of USA Inc.’s financial dilemma. Re-setting priorities and
streamlining could yield savings – $788 billion by 2018, according to one recent study 3 – perhaps without
damaging security. But entitlement spending has a bigger impact on USA Inc. financials. Although
defense nearly doubled in the last decade, to 5% of GDP, it is still below its 7% share of GDP from 1948 to
2000. It accounted for 20% of the budget in 2010, but 41% of all government spending between 1789 and
1930.
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Note: 1) Net margin defined as net income divided by total revenue; 2) net worth defined as assets (ex. stewardship assets like national
parks and heritage assets like the Washington Monument) minus liabilities minus the net present value of unfunded entitlements (such as
Social Security and Medicare), data per Treasury Dept.'s “2010 Annual Report on the U.S. Government”; 3) Gordon Adams and Matthew
Leatherman, “A Leaner and Meaner National Defense,” Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2011)
USA Inc. | Introduction
15
…Drilldown on USA Inc. Financials…
� Medicare and Medicaid, largely underfunded (based on ‘dedicated’ revenue) and
growing rapidly, accounted for 21% (or $724B) of USA Inc.’s total expenses in F2010,
up from 5% forty years ago
� Together, these two programs represent 35% of all (annual) US healthcare spending; Federal Medicaid
spending has doubled in real terms over the last decade, to $273 billion annually.
� Total government healthcare spending consumes 8.2% of GDP compared with just
1.3% fifty years ago; the new health reform law could increase USA Inc.’s budget
deficit
� As government healthcare spending expands, USA Inc.’s red ink will get much worse if healthcare costs
continue growing 2 percentage points faster than per capita income (as they have for 40 years).
� Unemployment Insurance and Social Security are adequately funded...for now. The
future, not so bright
� Demographic trends have exacerbated the funding problems for Medicare and Social Security – of the
102 million increased enrollment between 1965 and 2009, 42 million (or 41%) is due to an aging
population. With a 26% longer life expectancy but a 3% increase in retirement age (since Social
Security was created in 1935), deficits from Social Security could add $11.6 trillion (or 140%) to the
public debt by 2037E, per Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
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USA Inc. | Introduction
16
…Drilldown on USA Inc. Financials
� If entitlement programs are not reformed, USA Inc.’s balance sheet will go from bad to
worse
� Public debt has doubled over the last 30 years, to 62% of GDP. This ratio is expected to surpass the
90% threshold* – above which real GDP growth could slow considerably – in 10 years and could near
150% of GDP in 20 years if entitlement expenses continue to soar, per CBO.
� As government healthcare spending expands, USA Inc.’s red ink will get much worse if healthcare costs
continue growing 2 percentage points faster than per capita income (as they have for 40 years).
� The turning point: Within 15 years (by 2025), entitlements plus net interest expenses
will absorb all – yes, all – of USA Inc.’s annual revenue, per CBO
� That would require USA Inc. to borrow funds for defense, education, infrastructure, and R&D spending,
which today account for 32% of USA Inc. spending (excluding one-time items), down dramatically from
69% forty years ago.
� It’s notable that CBO’s projection from 10 years ago (in 1999) showed Federal revenue sufficient to
support entitlement spending + interest payments until 2060E – 35 years later than current projection.
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Note: *Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff observed from 3,700 historical annual data points from 44 countries that the
relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 percent of GDP.
Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. We note that while
Reinhart and Rogoff’s observations are based on ‘gross debt’ data, in the U.S., debt held by the public is closer to the European
countries’ definition of government gross debt. For more information, see Reinhart and Rogoff, “Growth in a Time of Debt,” 1/10.
USA Inc. | Introduction
17
How Might One Think About Turning Around USA Inc.?...
� Key focus areas would likely be reducing USA Inc.’s budget deficit and improving /
restructuring the ‘business model’…
� One would likely drill down on USA Inc.’s key revenue and expense drivers, then develop a
basic analytical framework for ‘normal’ revenue / expenses, then compare options.
�
�
Looking at history…
Annual growth in revenue of 3% has been roughly in line with GDP for 40 years* while
corporate income taxes grew at 2%. Social insurance taxes (for Social Security / Medicare)
grew 5% annually and now represent 37% of USA Inc. revenue, compared with 19% in 1965.
Annual growth in expenses of 3% has been roughly in line with revenue, but entitlements are
up 5% per annum - and now absorb 51% of all USA Inc.’s expense - more than twice their
share in 1965; defense and other discretionary spending growth has been just 1-2%.
�
One might ask…
Should expense and revenue levels be re-thought and re-set so USA Inc. operates near
break-even and expense growth (with needed puts and takes) matches GDP growth, thus
adopting a ‘don’t spend more than you earn’ approach to managing USA Inc.’s financials?
Note: *We chose a 40-year period from 1965 to 2005 to examine ‘normal’ levels of revenue and expenses. We did not choose the most recent
40-year period (1969 to 2009) as USA was in deep recession in 2008 / 2009 and underwent significant tax policy fluctuations in 1968 /1969, so
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many metrics (like individual income and corporate profit) varied significantly from ‘normal’ levels.
USA Inc. | Introduction
18
…How Might One Think About Turning Around USA Inc.?
One might consider…
�
�
�
Options for reducing expenses by focusing on entitlement reform and operating efficiency
�
�
Formula changes could help Social Security’s underfunding, but look too draconian for Medicare/Medicaid;
the underlying healthcare cost dilemma requires business process restructuring and realigned incentives.
Resuming the 20-year trend line for lower Federal civilian employment, plus more flexible compensation
systems and selective local outsourcing, could help streamline USA Inc.’s operations.
Options for increasing revenue by focusing on driving long-term GDP growth and changing tax
policies
� USA Inc. should examine ways to invest in growth that provides a high return (ROI) via new investment in
technology, education, and infrastructure and could stimulate productivity gains and employment growth.
�
Reducing tax subsidies (like exemptions on mortgage interest payments or healthcare benefits) and
changing the tax system in other ways could increase USA Inc.’s revenue without raising income taxes to
punitive – and self-defeating – levels. Such tax policy changes could help re-balance USA’s economy
between consumption and savings and re-orient business lines towards investment-led growth, though
there are potential risks and drawbacks.
History suggests the long-term consequences of inaction could be severe
�
USA Inc. has many assets, but it must start addressing its spending/debt challenges now.
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USA Inc. | Introduction
19
Sizing Costs Related to USA Inc.’s Key Financial Challenges
& Potential AND / OR Solutions
� To create frameworks for discussion, the next slide summarizes USA Inc.’s various
financial challenges and the projected future cost of each main expense driver.
� The estimated future cost is calculated as the net present value of expected
‘dedicated’ future income (such as payroll taxes) minus expected future expenses
(such as benefits paid) over the next 75 years.
� Then we ask the question: ‘What can we do to solve these financial challenges?’
�
The potential solutions include a range of simple mathematical illustrations (such as
changing program characteristics or increasing tax rates) and/or program-specific
policy solutions proposed or considered by lawmakers and agencies like the CBO
(such as indexing Social Security initial benefits to growth in cost of living).
� These mathematical illustrations are only a mechanical answer to key financial
challenges and not realistic solutions. In reality, a combination of detailed policy
changes will likely be required to bridge the future funding gap.
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USA Inc. | Introduction
20
Overview of USA Inc.’s Key Financial Challenges
& Potential and/or Solutions
Rank
Financial
Challenge
Net Present Cost 1
($T / % of 2010 GDP)
Mathematical Illustrations
and/or Potential Policy Solutions 2
1 Medicaid $35 Trillion 3 / 239%
2 Medicare $23 Trillion / 156%
• Isolate and address the drivers of medical cost inflation
• Improve efficiency / productivity of healthcare system
• Reduce coverage for optional benefits & optional enrollees
• Reduce benefits
• Increase Medicare tax rate
• Isolate and address the drivers of medical cost inflation
• Improve efficiency / productivity of healthcare system
3
Social
Security
$8 Trillion / 54%
• Raise retirement age
• Reduce benefits
• Increase Social Security tax rate
• Reduce future initial benefits by indexing to cost of living growth rather
than wage growth
• Subject benefits to means test to determine eligibility
4
Slow GDP /
USA
Revenue
Growth
--
• Invest in technology / infrastructure / education
• Remove tax & regulatory uncertainties to stimulate employment growth
• Reduce subsidies and tax expenditures & broaden tax base
5
Government
Inefficiencies
--
• Resume the 20-year trend line for lower Federal civilian employment
• Implement more flexible compensation systems
• Consolidate / selectively local outsource certain functions
Note: 1) Net Present Cost is calculated as the present value of expected future net liabilities (expected revenue minus expected costs) for each program / issue over the
next 75 years, Medicare estimate per Dept. of Treasury, “2010 Financial Report of the U.S. Government,” Social Security estimate per Social Security Trustees’ Report
(8/10). 2) For more details on potential solutions, see slides 252-410 or full USA Inc. presentation. 3) Medicaid does not have dedicated revenue source and its $35T net
present cost excludes funding from general tax revenue, NPV analysis based on 3% discount rate applied to CBO’s projection for annual inflation-adjusted expenses.
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USA Inc. | Introduction 21
The Essence of America’s Financial Conundrum
& Math Problem?
While a hefty 80% of Americans indicate balancing the budget should
be one of the country’s top priorities, per a Peter G. Peterson
Foundation survey in 11/09…
…only 12% of Americans support cutting spending on Medicare or
Social Security, per a Pew Research Center survey, 2/11.
Some might call this ‘having your cake and eating it too…’
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USA Inc. | Introduction
22
The Challenge Before Us
Policymakers, businesses and citizens need to share responsibility for
past failures and develop a plan for future successes.
Past generations of Americans have responded to major challenges
with collective sacrifice and hard work.
Will ours also rise to the occasion?
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USA Inc. | Introduction
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USA Inc. | Introduction
24
High-Level Thoughts on
Income Statement/Balance Sheet
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USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
25
How Would You Feel if…
…your Cash Flow was NEGATIVE for
each of the past 9 years…
?
…your Net Worth* has been
NEGATIVE for as long as you can
remember…
… it would take 20 years of your
income at the current level to pay off
your existing debt – assuming you
don’t take on any more debt.
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Note: *See slide 30 for net worth qualifier.
USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
26
Welcome to the Financial Reality (& Negative Trend) of USA Inc.
F2010 Cash Flow = -$1.3 Trillion; Net Worth = -$44 Trillion
USA Inc. Annual Cash Flow & Year-End Net Worth, F1996 – F2010
$400
$15,000
Annual Cash Flow ($Billion)
$0
-$400
-$800
-$1,200
One-Time Expenses*
Cash Flow (left axis)
$0
-$15,000
-$30,000
-$45,000
Year-End Net Worth ($Billion)
-$1,600
Net Worth (right axis)
F1996 F1998 F2000 F2002 F2004 F2006 F2008 F2010
-$60,000
Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September; Cash flow = total revenue – total spending on a cash basis; net worth includes unfunded future liabilities from
Social Security and Medicare on an accrual basis over the next 75 years. *One-time expenses in F2008 include $14B payments to Freddie Mac; F2009
includes $279B net TARP payouts, $97B payment to Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac and $40B stimulus spending on discretionary items; F2010 includes $26B net
TARP income, $137B stimulus spending and $41B payment to Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. F2010 net worth improved dramatically owing to revised actuarial
estimates for Medicare program resulted from the Healthcare reform legislation. For more definitions, see next slide. Source: cash flow per White House Office
of Management and Budget; net worth per Dept. of Treasury, “2010 Financial Report of the U.S. Government.”
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USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
27
Think About That…
The previous chart is in
TRILLIONS of dollars. Just
because million, billion and
trillion rhyme, doesn’t mean
that they are even close
to the same quantity.
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USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
28
Only Politicians Work in Trillions of Dollars—
Here’s How Much That Is
1 Pallet
1 Football Field
$1 Million (MM)
217 Football Fields
$1 Billion (B)
$1 Trillion (T)
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USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
29
Net Worth Qualifier
• The balance sheet / net worth calculation does not include the power to tax
– the net present value of the sovereign power to tax and the ability to print the
world’s reserve currency would clearly bolster USA Inc.’s assets – if they could be
accurately calculated.
• Plant, Property & Equipment (PP&E) on USA Inc.’s balance sheet is valued
at $829B 1 (or 29% of USA Inc.’s total stated assets) – this includes tangible
assets such as buildings, internal use software and civilian and military
equipment.
• The PP&E calculation DOES NOT include the value of USA Inc.’s holdings in
the likes of public land (estimated to be worth $408B per OMB) 1 , highways,
natural gas, oil reserves, mineral rights (estimated to be worth $345B per OMB),
forest, air space, radio frequency spectrum, national parks and other heritage and
stewardship assets which USA Inc. does not anticipate to use for general
government operations. The good news for USA Inc. is that the aggregate value
of these heritage and stewardship assets could be significant.
Note: 1) USA Inc.’s holding of land is measured in non-financial units such as acres of land and lakes, and number of National Parks and National Marine
Sanctuaries. Land under USA Inc.’s stewardship accounts for 28% of the total U.S. landmass as of 9/10. Dept. of Interior reported 552 national wildlife refuges, 378
park units, 134 geographic management areas, 67 fish hatcheries under their management as of 9/10. Dept. of Defense reported 203,000 acres of public land and
16,140,000 acres withdrawn public land, the USDA’s Forest Service managed an estimated 155 national forests, while the Dept. of Commerce had 13 National
Marine Sanctuaries, which included near–shore coral reefs and open ocean, as of 9/10. Dept. of Treasury, “2010 Financial Report of the U.S. Government.”
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USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
30
A Word of Warning About Comparing
Corporate & Government Accounting…
� Government accounting standards do not report the present value of future
entitlement payments (such as Social Security or Medicare) as liabilities.
Instead, entitlement payments are recognized only when they are paid.
� Our analysis takes a different view: governments create liabilities when they
enact entitlements and do not provide for revenues adequate to fund them.
� We measure the entitlement liability as the present value of estimated
entitlement payments in excess of expected revenues for citizens of working age
based on Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds’ actuarial analysis.
� Government accounting standards also do not recognize the value of internallygenerated
intangible assets (such as the sovereign power to tax). We do not
recognize those assets either, as we have no basis to measure them. But the
US government has substantial intangible assets that should provide future
economic benefits.
Note: For more discussion on alternatives to corporate and official government accounting methods, see Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Alan J. Auerbach, and Jagadeesh
Gokhale, “Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Assess Generational Policy,” published on 12/94 in The Journal of Economic Perspectives.
Source: Greg Jonas, Morgan Stanley Research.
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USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
31
…and About Government Budgeting
� Federal government budgeting follows arcane practices that are very different
from corporate budgeting – and can neglect solutions to structural problems in
favor of short-term expediency.
� Federal government does not distinguish capital budget (for long-term
investment) from operating budget (for day-to-day operations). As a result, when
funding is limited, government may choose to reduce investments for the future
to preserve resources for day-to-day operations.
� Budget “scoring” rules give Congress incentives to hide the true costs...and help
Congressional committees defend their turf.*
Note: *For more detail, refer to slide 116 on congressional budget scoring rules related to recent Healthcare reform.
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USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
32
Metric Definitions & Qualifiers
� Cash Flow = ‘Cash In’ Minus ‘Cash Out’
� Calculated on a cash basis (which excludes changes in non-cash accrual of
future liabilities) for simplicity.
� One-Time Expenses = ‘Spending Minus Repayments’ for Non-Recurring
Programs
� Net costs of programs such as TARP, ARRA, and GSE bailouts.
� Net Worth = Assets Minus Liabilities Minus Unfunded Entitlement Liabilities
� Assets include cash & investments, taxes receivable, property, plant &
equipment (as defined by Department of Treasury).
� Liabilities include accounts payable, accrued payroll & benefits, federal
debt, federal employee & veteran benefits payable…
� Unfunded Entitlement Liabilities include the present value of future
expenditures in excess of dedicated future revenues in Medicare and Social
Security over the next 75 years.
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Note: USA Inc. accounts do not follow the same GAAP as corporations.
USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
33
Common Financial Metrics Applied to USA Inc. in F2010
� Cash Flow Per Share = -$4,171
� USA Inc.’s F2010 cash flow -$1.3 trillion, divided by population of ~310
million (assuming each citizen holds one share of USA Inc.).
� Net Debt to EBITDA Ratio = -8x
� USA Inc. net debt held by public ($9.1 trillion) divided by USA Inc.
F2010 EBITDA (-$1.1 trillion). It’s notable that the ratio compares with
S&P500 average of 1.4x in 2010.
Note: USA Inc. accounts do not follow the same GAAP as corporations. Refer to slide 31 for a word of warning about comparing
corporate and government accounting. EBITDA is Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortization. Source: Dept. of
Treasury, White House Office of Management and Budget, Congressional Budget Office, BEA, BLS.
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USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
34
Even Adjusting For Cyclical Impact of Recessions, USA Inc.’s 2010
Structural Operating Loss = -$817 Billion vs. -$78 Billion 15 Years Ago
Annual Federal Government Surplus / Deficit ($ Billion)
-$1,200
-$1,600
USA Inc. Annual Operating Surplus / Deficit, Structural vs. Cyclical 1 , F1996 – F2010
$400
$0
-$400
-$800
Structural
Cyclical
F1996 F1998 F2000 F2002 F2004 F2006 F2008 F2010
Note: 1) Congressional Budget Office defines a structural surplus or deficit as the budget surplus or deficit that would occur under current law if the influences of
the business cycle on the budget – the automatic stabilizers – were removed, and cyclical surplus or deficit as the automatic net changes in revenues and outlays
that are attributable to cyclical movements in real (inflation-adjusted) output and unemployment. CBO compiled this data from Dept. of Commerce’s Bureau of
Economic Analysis (BEA), which maintains the national income and product accounts (NIPA). An important difference between the official budget deficit and the
NIPA measure of net federal government saving is that the latter excludes such purely financial transactions as the sale of government assets, and most
transactions under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, because those transactions do not help to measure current production and income. In addition, historical
NIPA data are subject to significant revision; historical budget data, by contrast, are rarely revised significantly. Source: 1996-2006 data per CBO, “The Effects of
Automatic Stabilizers on the Federal Budget,” 5/10, 2007-2010 data per White House OMB F2012 Budget Analytical Perspective.
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USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
35
Understanding Differences Between
Economist Language vs. Equity Investor Translation
Economist Language
� Budget Deficit – The amount by which a
government's expenditures exceed its
receipts over a particular period of time.
� Structural Deficit – The portion of the
budget deficit that results from a
fundamental imbalance in government
receipts and expenditures, as opposed to
one based on the business cycle or onetime
factors.
� Cyclical Deficit – The portion of the
budget deficit that results from cyclical
factors such as economic recessions
rather than from underlying fiscal policy.
Equity Investor Approximate Translation*
� Cash Flow – ‘Cash in’ minus ‘cash out.’
� Cash Flow (ex. One-Time Items)* –
‘Cash in’ minus ‘cash out’ excluding
expenditures that are one-time in nature
(such as economic stimulus spending).
� One-Time Expenses* – TARP / GSE /
stimulus spending related to economic
recession.
� Federal Debt Held By the Public – The
accumulation of all previous fiscal years’
deficits.
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� Debt – Cumulative negative cash flow
financed by borrowing.
Note: *We acknowledge that while the concept of ‘cash flow ex. one-time items’ and ‘one-time expenses’ is similar to ‘structural deficit’ and
‘cyclical deficit,’ respectively, these terms are not interchangeable and have different definitions. Congressional Budget Office defines a
structural surplus or deficit as the budget surplus or deficit that would occur under current law if the influences of the business cycle on the
budget – the automatic stabilizers – were removed, and cyclical surplus or deficit as the automatic net changes in revenues and outlays that
are attributable to cyclical movements in real (inflation-adjusted) output and unemployment.
USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
36
How Did USA Inc.'s Financial Reality
Get to this Difficult Point?
USA Inc. Has Not Adequately Funded Its Entitlement Programs
Recessions come and go (and affect USA’s revenue), but future claims
(related to entitlement program commitments) on USA Inc. now
meaningfully exceed its projected cash flows.
For the last 40 years, management (the government) has committed
more long-term benefits through ‘entitlement’ programs like Medicaid /
Medicare / Social Security…without developing a sound plan to pay for
them.
Many of these programs provide important services to low-income,
unemployed, and disabled Americans in great need for help. But without
proper financing, support may dwindle.
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USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
37
USA Inc. Has Substantially Expanded
Its “Business Lines” Over Past 80 Years
From 1789 to 1930, 41% 1 of USA Inc.’s cumulative
budget was dedicated to defense spending (compared
with 20% 1 in F2010), per the Census Bureau.
This began to change in the 1930s, when the federal
government substantially expanded its role (in effect,
expanded its “business lines”) in response to the Great
Depression.
Note: 1) 41% is the cumulative defense spending (excluding veterans’ benefits and services) as % of cumulative total federal
spending from 1789 to 1930. Including veterans’ benefits and services, defense spending would have been 49% of cumulative
annual budget from 1789 to 1930 and would have been 22% in F2009. Source: Census Bureau, “Historical Statistics of the
United States, Colonial Times to 1970,” Data series Y 457-465.
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USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
38
USA Inc. “Business Lines” Have Expanded
From Defense to Insurance & Other Areas
USA Inc. Major ‘Business Line’ Spending as % of GDP, F1800 vs. F1900 vs. F2000
F1800
2.2%
F1900
2.5%
F2000
18.2%
Other
0.3%
Interest
Payment
0.7%
Defense
1.3%
Other
1.4%
Defense
0.9%
Other
5.1%
Defense
3.0%
Interest
Payment
2.3%
Interest
Payment
0.2%
Health
Insurance*
3.6%
Retirement +
Disability
Insurance*
4.2%
Note: Fiscal year 1800 / 1900 ended in June. Fiscal year 2000 ended in September. *Health insurance includes Medicare, Medicaid (federal portion)
and other federal health programs, retirement and disability insurance is Social Security. Other spending includes public sector employee and veteran
pension & benefits cost and spending on community development, law enforcement / education / public infrastructure / energy, etc. Source: 1800 /
1900 data per Census Bureau, 2000 per White House OMB.
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USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
39
USA Inc. First 155 Years (1776-1930) = Era of Defense
Dept. of Army + Navy = 41% 1 of Cumulative Spending From 1789-1930
USA Inc.’s Budget Outlays For the First 155 Years (1776-1930) 2
1789-1791 … 1800 … 1850 … 1900 … 1930
1789-1930
Cumulative
Total Federal Government Outlays ($MM) $4 $11 $40 $521 $3,320 $98,747
Defense $1 $6 $17 $191 $839 $40,332
% of Total Outlays 15% 56% 44% 37% 25% 41%
Dept. of the Army $1 $3 $9 $135 $465 $28,831
% of Total Outlays 15% 24% 24% 26% 14% 29%
Dept. of the Navy $0 $3 $8 $56 $374 $11,500
% of Total Outlays -- 32% 20% 11% 11% 12%
Interest on the Public Debt $2 $3 $4 $40 $659 $13,790
% of Total Outlays 55% 31% 10% 8% 20% 14%
Other* $1 $1 $18 $290 $1,822 $44,626
% of Total Outlays 30% 13% 47% 56% 55% 45%
Veteran Compensation and Pensions $0 $0 $2 $141 $221 $8,273
% of Total Outlays 4% 1% 5% 27% 7% 8%
Note: Data is rounded and not adjusted for inflation. 1) 41% is the cumulative defense spending (excluding veterans’ benefits and services) as % of
cumulative total federal spending from 1789 to 1930. Including veterans’ benefits and services, defense spending would have been 49% of cumulative
annual budget from 1789 to 1930. 2) Data not available from 1776 to 1789. * Other includes various spending on administration, legislation and veteran
compensation and pensions. Source: Census Bureau, “Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970,” Data series Y 457-465.
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USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
40
USA Inc. Next 80 Years (1931-2010) = Era of Expansion
Defense Down to 20% of Spending; Social Security + Healthcare Up to 44% in F2010
USA Inc.’s Budget Outlays For the Next 78 Years (1931-2010) 2
… … … … … … … …
1931 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Total Federal Government Outlays ($B) $4 $9 $43 $92 $196 $591 $1,253 $1,789 $3,456
Defense $1 $2 $14 $48 $82 $134 $299 $294 $694
% of Total Outlays 23% 20% 32% 52% 42% 23% 24% 16% 20%
Interest on the Public Debt $1 $1 $5 $7 $14 $53 $184 $223 $196
% of Total Outlays 17% 11% 11% 8% 7% 9% 15% 12% 6%
Retirement & Disability Insurance $0 $0 $1 $12 $30 $119 $249 $409 $707
% of Total Outlays 0% 0% 2% 13% 15% 20% 20% 23% 20%
Healthcare $0 $0 $0 $1 $12 $55 $156 $352 $821
% of Total Outlays 0% 1% 1% 1% 6% 9% 12% 20% 24%
Physical Resources (Energy / Housing…) $0 $2 $4 $8 $16 $66 $126 $85 $89
% of Total Outlays 5% 26% 9% 9% 8% 11% 10% 5% 3%
Other $2 $4 $19 $17 $42 $165 $239 $426 $950
% of Total Outlays 55% 42% 45% 18% 21% 28% 19% 24% 27%
Note: Data is rounded and not adjusted for inflation. Physical resources include energy, natural resources, commerce & housing credit, transportation
infrastructure, community and regional development. Other includes international affairs, agriculture, administration of justice, general government, education
and veterans’ benefits and services. Source: 1931-1939 data per Census Bureau, “Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970.” 1940-
2010 data per White House OMB.
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USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
41
USA Inc. “Business Line” Extensions: 1930 – 2010
1970’s
1960’s
1950’s
1940’s
1930’s
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“Business Line”
Extensions
F2010
Expense ($B)
Energy Policy $12
Community
Development
13
Healthcare 724
Education 97
Housing 36
Welfare 28
Agencies / Programs
Created (Year)
Department of Energy
(1977)
Community
Development Block
Grant* (1974)
Medicare / Medicaid
(1965)
Federal Subsidies for
K-12 & Higher
Education (1965)
Federal Housing
Administration (1937)
/ Fannie Mae (1938)
Aid to Dependent
Children (1935)
Goals
Establish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve /
mandate automobile fuel efficiency standards &
temporary oil price control
Provide federal grants to local governments for
projects like parking lots / museums / street repairs
Provide medical insurance program for the elderly
(Medicare) and welfare program for low-income
population (Medicaid)
Provide federal subsidies for student loans / school
libraries / teacher training / research / textbooks and
other items.
Reduce cost of mortgages and spur home building /
purchasing by offering federal mortgage insurance
and create secondary market for mortgage loans.
Provide cash assistance to low-income families with
children. Replaced by Temporary Assistance for
Needy Families program in 1996
Retirement 584** Social Security (1935) Provide retirement income to the elderly
TOTAL $1.5 Trillion Or 10% of F2010 GDP / 69% of USA Inc.’s Revenue / 43 of Expense
Note: *Community Development Block Grant was an effort to consolidate various pre-existing categorical community development
programs that started with "urban renewal" in the 1950’s. **Social Security’s F2010 expense excludes ~$123B payments to
disabled workers via Disability Insurance program (created in 1956). Source: CATO Institute, White House OMB.
USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts 42
Entitlement Programs Are the Largest & Growing Expense Items
on USA Inc.'s Income Statement in Peace Time
USA Inc. Spending as % of GDP, 1795 – 2010
45%
40%
All Other Spending Social Security Medicare + Medicaid
35%
World War II
Federal Spending As % of GDP
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
War of 1812
Civil War
Great Depression
World War I
5%
0%
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1795 1820 1845 1870 1895 1920 1945 1970 1995
Note: Medicaid spending only includes federal (not state) portion of spending.
Source: John Cogan, Stanford University.
USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
43
Perspective –
USA Entitlement Spending = India’s GDP
• With a population of 1.2 billion (vs. USA’s 310 million) and
2010 GDP growth of 10% (vs. USA’s 3%), India is a wellrecognized
emerging country on the global stage.
• It’s notable that India’s 2010 nominal GDP* of $1.43
trillion was equal to USA’s $1.43 trillion in federal
government spending on Social Security, Medicare, and
Medicaid.
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Note: *Nominal GDP is not adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP). Population and GDP data per IMF.
USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
44
The Original Estimates of Medicare’s Costs
Were Vastly Underestimated
• In 1965, the official estimate of Medicare’s costs was $500 million per year,
roughly $3 billion in 2005 dollars.*
• The actual cost of Medicare has turned out to be 10x that estimate.
• Medicare’s actual net loss (tax receipts + trust fund interest – expenditures)
has exceeded $3 billion (adjusted for inflation) every year since 1976 and
was $146 billion in 2008 alone. In other words, had the original estimate been
accurate, the cumulative 43-year cost since Medicare was created would
have been $129 billion, adjusted for inflation.
• In fact, the actual cumulative spending has been $1.4 trillion** (adjusted for
inflation)...in effect, 10x over budget.
• While calculations have been flawed from the beginning for some of USA Inc.’s
entitlement programs, little has been done to correct the problems.
� An accurate economic forecast might have sunk Medicare.
David Blumenthal and James Morone
“The Lessons of Success – Revisiting the Medicare Story”, November 2008
www.kpcb.com
Sources: * Lyndon B. Johnson Library & Museum. Medicare spending data per White House OMB.
**Dept. of Health & Human Services, CMS, data adjusted for inflation based on BEA’s GDP price index.
USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
45
Many Leaders Have Voiced Concerns About
Entitlement Program Math / Spending
� The entitlement programs are not self-funded…they are unfunded
liabilities. They are the single biggest component of spending going
forward.
� -- Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve
� Testimony before House Budget Committee, June 9, 2010
� The time we have is growing short…there are serious questions, most
immediately about the sustainability of our commitment to growing
entitlement programs.
� -- Paul Volcker, Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve
� Chairman of President Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board
� Speech at Stanford University, May 18, 2010
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
46
40-Year USA Inc. Data Points and Trends
1965 2005
‘65-’05
Change
National 1 Healthcare Spending as % of GDP 6% � 16% 167%
Federal 2 Healthcare Spending as % of GDP 1 � 5 --
Out-of-Pocket Healthcare Spending as % of GDP 3 � 2 --
% of Adult Population Considered Obese 13 � 32 146
% of Americans Receiving Govt. Subsidy 3 20 � 35 75
% of Americans that Pay No Federal Income Tax 20 � 33 65
National 1 Education Spending as % of GDP 5 � 7 48
Federal Education Spending as % of GDP 0 � 1 --
Gross Debt as % of GDP 47 � 64 36
Interest Payments as % of GDP 1.2 � 1.5 25
Gini Index of Income Inequality 4 0.34 4 � 0.41 20
Net Debt 5 as % of GDP 38 � 37 -3
People Below Poverty Level as % of Population 17 � 13 -26
Defense Spending as % of GDP 7 � 4 -33
% of Americans that Pay 50% of All Income Tax 10 6 � 4 -60
Federal Budget Surplus / Deficit as % of GDP -0.2 � -3 --
Note: 1) Includes all government and private spending. 2) Includes federal spending on Medicare, Medicaid and other healthcare programs, excludes state spending on Medicaid.
3) % of Americans receiving government subsidy include all recipients of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, as well as government employees (incl. federal / state / local /
military). Data excludes our estimated duplicates. 4) A Gini index of 0 implies perfect income equality and an index of 1 implies complete inequality, the higher the index, the more
inequality there is. Earliest data for USA was measured in 1967. 5) Net debt is federal debt held by the public. 6) Earliest data available in 1980. Source: White House Office of
Management and Budget, Department of Health & Human Services, Centers for Disease Control, Internal Revenue Service, Census Bureau.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
47
Summary: 40-Year USA, Inc. Trends*
� America is spending beyond its means, and the problem – with mounting
losses & increasing debt – is getting worse, not better
� Healthcare spending and obesity are rising dramatically.
� Education spending is growing slower than healthcare spending.
� Defense spending is declining on relative basis.
� More and more Americans are on the government payroll or receive
government subsidies for retirement income, medical care, housing, and
food.
� Inequality of income and wealth is rising, and fewer Americans pay income
taxes to support USA Inc.
� Government increasingly resorts to borrowing to fund rising spending
levels (primarily for entitlement programs)…
Note: *We chose a 40-year period from 1965 to 2005 to examine ‘normal’ levels of data points and trends. We did not
choose the most recent 40-year period (1969 to 2009) as USA was in deep recession in 2008 / 2009 and underwent
significant tax policy fluctuations in 1968 /1969 and subsequently many metrics (like individual income and corporate
profit as well as federal budget surplus / deficit and debt levels) were significantly off their ‘normal’ levels.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
48
What’s the Proper Level of This and That? What’s Normal?
We begin with the premise that for an enterprise (even a country
that can ‘print money’ and tax) to be sustainable, it cannot lose
money on an ongoing basis.
Successful businesses (and households) typically base their
expenses on their ability to generate present and future revenue
– in other words, they don’t spend unless they can pay.
We analyze the data and present scenarios and options for solving
the math and financial challenges facing USA Inc.
www.kpcb.com
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USA Inc. | High Level Thoughts
52
Income Statement Drilldown
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
53
Income Statement –
USA Inc. Shows -8% Median Net Margin Over 15 Years
USA Inc. Annual Net Income & Median Net Margin, F1996 – F2010
$400
40%
$0
0%
USA Inc. Net Income ($B)
-$400
-$800
-$1,200
Net Income ($B)
15-Year Median Net Margin (%)
-40%
-80%
-120%
Net Margin (%)
-$1,600
F1996 F1998 F2000 F2002 F2004 F2006 F2008 F2010
-160%
www.kpcb.com
Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September. Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
54
Income Statement –
F2010 USA Inc. Revenues + Expenses at a Glance
Corporate
Income Tax
$191B
F2010 Revenue =
$2.2 Trillion
Other
$208B
10%
9%
Individual
Income Tax
$899B
Non-Defense
Discretionary
$431B
Discretionary
One-Time Items
$152B
F2010 USA Inc. Expenses =
12%
$3.5 Trillion
Net Interest
Payment
$196B
6%
4%
20%
Entitlement
Programs
Social
Security
$707B
41%
20%
22%
Social
Insurance Tax
$865B
www.kpcb.com
40%
Defense
$694B
16%
Medicare +
Federal
Medicaid
$724B
Unemployment Insurance
+ Other Entitlements
$553B
Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September; *individual & corporate income taxes include capital gains taxes. Nondefense
discretionary includes federal spending on education, infrastructure, law enforcement, judiciary functions…
Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
55
Income Statement –
USA Inc. Supported -60% Net Margin in F2010
USA Inc. Profit & Loss Statement, F1995 / F2000 / F2005 / F2010
F1995 … F2000 … F2005 … F2010 Comments
Revenue ($B) $1,352 $2,026 $2,154 $2,163 On average, revenue grew 3% Y/Y
Y/Y Growth -- 11% 15% 3% over past 15 years
Individual Income Taxes* $590 $1,005 $927 $899 Largest driver of revenue
% of Revenue 44% 50% 43% 42%
Social Insurance Taxes $484 $653 $794 $865 Payroll tax on Social Security +
% of Revenue 36% 32% 37% 40% Medicare
Corporate Income Taxes*
% of Revenue
$157
12%
$207
10%
$278
13%
$191
9%
Fluctuates significantly with
economic conditions
Other
% of Revenue
$120
9%
$161
8%
$154
7%
$208
10%
Includes estate & gift taxes / duties &
fees; relatively stable
Expense ($B) $1,516 $1,789 $2,472 $3,456 On average, expense grew 6% Y/Y
Y/Y Growth -- 5% 8% -2% over past 15 years
Entitlement / Mandatory
% of Expense
$788
52%
$937
52%
$1,295
52%
$1,984
57%
Significant increase owing to aging
population + rising healthcare cost
Non-Defense Discretionary
% of Expense
$223
15%
$335
19%
$497
20%
$431
12%
Includes education / law enforcement
/ transportation…
"One-Time" Items
% of Expense
Defense
% of Expense
--
--
$272
18%
--
--
$294
16%
--
--
$495
20%
$152
4%
$694
20%
Includes discretionary spending on
TARP, GSEs, and economic stimulus
Significant increase owing to ongoing
War on Terror
Net Interest on Public Debt
% of Expense
$232
15%
$223
12%
$184
7%
$196
6%
Decreased owing to historic low
interest rates
Surplus / Deficit ($B) -$164 $237 -$318 -$1,293 USA Inc. median net margin
Net Margin (%) -12% 12% -15% -60% between 1995 & 2010 = -8%
www.kpcb.com
Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September; *individual & corporate income taxes include capital gains taxes. Nondefense
discretionary includes federal spending on education, infrastructure, law enforcement, judiciary functions…
Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 56
Income Statement – Excluding ‘Underfunded’ Medicare / Medicaid 1 + One-Time
Charges, USA Inc. Shows 4% Median Net Margin Over 15 Years
USA Inc. Annual Net Income & Median Net Margin
(Excluding Medicare / Medicaid & One-Time Charges), F1996 – F2010
$600
60%
$400
40%
USA Inc. Net Income ($B)
$200
$0
-$200
-$400
-$600
Net Income (ex. Medicare / Medicaid / One-Time Charges) ($B)
15-Year Median Net Margin (%)
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
Net Margin (%)
-$800
F1996 F1998 F2000 F2002 F2004 F2006 F2008 F2010
-80%
www.kpcb.com
Note: 1) Excludes both ‘dedicated’ revenue and spending for Medicare and Medicaid. USA federal fiscal year ends in
September. Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
57
Income Statement: USA Inc. Profit & Loss Statement Is Solid, Excluding
‘Underfunded’ Medicare / Medicaid Revenue and Spending + One-Time Charges
USA Inc. Profit & Loss Statement (ex. Medicare / Medicaid / One-Time Expense), F1995 / F2000 / F2005 / F2010
F1995 … F2000 … F2005 … F2010 Comments
Revenue ($B) $1,256 $1,890 $1,988 $1,983
Y/Y Growth -- 11% 15% 4%
Individual Income Taxes* $590 $1,005 $927 $899
% of Revenue 47% 53% 47% 45%
Social Insurance Taxes (ex. Medicare) $388 $517 $628 $685
% of Revenue 31% 27% 32% 35%
Corporate Income Taxes* $157 $207 $278 $191
% of Revenue 13% 11% 14% 10%
Other $120 $161 $154 $208
% of Revenue 10% 9% 8% 10%
Expense ($B) $1,248 $1,474 $1,992 $2,580
Y/Y Growth 5% 8% 7%
Entitlement (ex. Medicare / Medicaid) $520 $622 $815 $1,259
% of Expense 42% 42% 41% 49%
Non-Defense Discretionary $223 $335 $497 $431
% of Expense 18% 23% 25% 17%
Defense $272 $294 $495 $694
% of Expense 22% 20% 25% 27%
Net Interest on Public Debt $232 $223 $184 $196
% of Expense 19% 15% 9% 8%
Surplus / Deficit ($B) $8 $416 -$4 -$597
Net Margin (%) 1% 22% 0% -30%
On average, revenue (ex. Medicare)
grew 3% Y/Y over past 15 years
Largest driver of core revenue
Payroll tax on Social Security
Fluctuates significantly with
economic conditions
Includes estate & gift taxes / duties &
fees; relatively stable
Expenses(ex. Medicare Medicaid)
grew 5% Y/Y over past 15 years
Significant increase owing to aging
population
Includes education / law enforcement
/ transportation…
Significant increase owing to ongoing
War on Terror
Decreased owing to historic low
interest rates
USA Inc. core operations were in
surplus 9 out of the past 15 years
Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September; *individual & corporate income taxes include capital gains taxes. Non-defense discretionary includes
federal spending on education, infrastructure, law enforcement, judiciary functions… Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
58
100-Year Review of USA Inc.’s Basic Income Statement
Including Revenue & Expense Drivers as Percent of GDP
… … … … … … … … … …
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 2009 2010
Revenue ($B) $0.7 $7 $4 $7 $41 $92 $193 $517 $1,032 $2,025 $2,524 $2,105 $2,163
% of GDP 2% 8% 4% 7% 15% 18% 19% 19% 18% 21% 18% 15% 15%
Individual Income Taxes -- $1 $1 $1 $16 $41 $90 $244 $467 $1,004 $1,146 $915 $899
% of GDP -- 1% 1% 1% 6% 8% 9% 9% 8% 10% 8% 6% 6%
Social Insurance Taxes -- -- -- $2 $4 $15 $45 $158 $380 $653 $900 $891 $865
% of GDP -- -- -- 2% 2% 3% 4% 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6%
Corporate Income Taxes -- -- $1 $1 $10 $21 $33 $65 $94 $207 $304 $138 $191
% of GDP -- -- 1% 1% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Other* $0.7 $6 $3 $3 $10 $16 $24 $51 $92 $161 $174 $161 $208
% of GDP 2% 6% 3% 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Expense ($B) $0.7 $6 $3 $9 $43 $92 $196 $591 $1,253 $1,789 $2,983 $3,518 $3,456
% of GDP 2% 7% 4% 9% 16% 18% 19% 22% 22% 18% 21% 25% 24%
Defense $0.3 $2 $1 $2 $14 $48 $82 $134 $299 $294 $616 $661 $694
% of GDP 1% 3% 1% 2% 5% 9% 8% 5% 5% 3% 4% 5% 5%
Interest on the Debt $0 $1 $1 $1 $5 $7 $14 $53 $184 $223 $253 $187 $196
% of GDP 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Social Security -- -- -- $0 $1 $12 $30 $119 $249 $409 $617 $683 $707
% of GDP -- -- -- 0% 0% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5%
Healthcare -- -- -- $0 $0 $1 $12 $55 $156 $352 $671 $764 $821
% of GDP -- -- -- 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6%
Other** $0 $3 $2 $6 $23 $25 $57 $231 $365 $511 $825 $1,222 $1,039
% of GDP -- -- -- 6% 8% 5% 6% 8% 6% 5% 6% 9% 7%
Surplus / Deficit ($B) -$0 $0 $1 -$2 -$2 $0 -$3 -$74 -$221 $236 -$459 -$1,413 -$1,293
% of GDP 0% 0% 1% -2% -1% 0% 0% -3% -4% 2% -3% -10% -9%
Note: Data are not adjusted for inflation. *Other revenue includes customs and excise / estate taxes. **Other expenses include spending on law enforcement
/ education / public infrastructure / energy, etc. Source: 1910 – 1930 per Census Bureau, 1940-2010 per White House OMB.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
59
100-Year Review of USA Inc.’s Basic Income Statement
Including Revenue & Expense Drivers as Percent of Revenue & Expenses
… … … … … … … … … …
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 2009 2010
Revenue ($B) $0.7 $7 $4 $7 $41 $92 $193 $517 $1,032 $2,025 $2,524 $2,105 $2,163
% of GDP 2% 8% 4% 7% 15% 18% 19% 19% 18% 21% 18% 15% 15%
Individual Income Taxes -- $1 $1 $1 $16 $41 $90 $244 $467 $1,004 $1,146 $915 $899
% of Revenue -- 16% 28% 16% 38% 44% 47% 47% 45% 50% 45% 43% 42%
Social Insurance Taxes -- -- -- $2 $4 $15 $45 $158 $380 $653 $900 $891 $865
% of Revenue -- -- -- 25% 11% 16% 23% 31% 37% 32% 36% 42% 40%
Corporate Income Taxes -- -- $1 $1 $10 $21 $33 $65 $94 $207 $304 $138 $191
% of Revenue -- -- 31% 14% 26% 23% 17% 12% 9% 10% 12% 7% 9%
Other* $0.7 $6 $3 $3 $10 $16 $24 $51 $92 $161 $174 $161 $208
% of Revenue 100% 84% 72% 45% 25% 17% 13% 10% 9% 8% 7% 8% 10%
Expense ($B) $0.7 $6 $3 $9 $43 $92 $196 $591 $1,253 $1,789 $2,983 $3,518 $3,456
% of GDP 2% 7% 4% 9% 16% 18% 19% 22% 22% 18% 21% 25% 24%
Defense $0.3 $2 $1 $2 $14 $48 $82 $134 $299 $294 $616 $661 $694
% of Expense 45% 37% 25% 20% 32% 52% 42% 23% 24% 16% 21% 19% 20%
Interest on the Debt $0 $1 $1 $1 $5 $7 $14 $53 $184 $223 $253 $187 $196
% of Expense 3% 16% 20% 11% 11% 8% 7% 9% 15% 12% 8% 5% 6%
Social Security -- -- -- $0 $1 $12 $30 $119 $249 $409 $617 $683 $707
% of Expense -- -- -- 0% 2% 13% 15% 20% 20% 23% 21% 19% 20%
Healthcare -- -- -- $0 $0 $1 $12 $55 $156 $352 $671 $764 $821
% of Expense -- -- -- 1% 1% 1% 6% 9% 12% 20% 23% 22% 24%
Other** $0 $3 $2 $6 $23 $25 $57 $231 $365 $511 $825 $1,222 $1,039
% of Expense 52% 47% 55% 68% 54% 27% 29% 39% 29% 29% 28% 35% 30%
Surplus / Deficit ($B) -$0 $0 $1 -$2 -$2 $0 -$3 -$74 -$221 $236 -$459 -$1,413 -$1,293
% of GDP 0% 0% 1% -2% -1% 0% 0% -3% -4% 2% -3% -10% -9%
Note: Data are not adjusted for inflation. *Other revenue includes customs and excise / estate taxes. **Other expenses include spending on law enforcement /
education / public infrastructure / energy, etc. Source: 1910 – 1930 per Census Bureau, 1940-2010 per White House OMB.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
60
Conclusions: 100-Year Review of USA Inc. Income Statement
• America’s government has grown dramatically - USA Inc.’s revenue as percent of
GDP has risen from 2% to 15%. Individual / social insurance (Social Security +
Medicare) taxes have risen dramatically while customs / excise / estate taxes
have declined in relative importance. In addition, USA Inc.’s spending as percent
of GDP has risen to 24% in 2010, up from 3% average between 1790 and 1930.
• USA Inc.’s average operating income was at or near breakeven for most of the
periods from 1910 to 1970.
• In the 1970s, as healthcare expenses (related to Medicare and Medicaid) began
to surge, USA Inc. reported more frequent – and bigger – losses. Since 1970,
USA Inc. showed a profit just 4 times (F1998-F2001, when economic growth was
especially robust and defense spending was relatively low).
• General expense trends since 1970: non-defense discretionary spending has
been flattish (except in recessions with material one-time charges), healthcare
spending (largely Medicare + Medicaid) has risen materially, Social Security
spending has been flattish, defense spending has been down to flattish, and
interest payments varied with interest rates.
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
61
Operations of USA Inc. Are Solid,
Excluding Medicare / Medicaid and One-Time Charges
� Revenues of USA Inc. (largely from individual and corporate income and
payroll taxes) can fund most expenses (largely spending on defense,
Social Security, unemployment insurance, education, law enforcement,
transportation, energy, infrastructure, federal employee & veteran
benefits, and interest payments).
In fact, for USA Inc.'s operations besides Medicare / Medicaid and
one-time expenses, there’s ample scope to increase spending for
defense, education, law enforcement, transportation, infrastructure
and energy by ~4%* in aggregate and still remain break-even.
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Excluding Medicare / Medicaid revenue & expenses, USA Inc.’s expenses are, on average, 4% below revenue levels
from F1996 to F2010 based on our calculation of White House OMB data.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
62
Defense Spending Is The Second-Largest Expense Item After
Entitlements, But Below Long-Term Trend as Share of GDP
• With budget deficits rising, some advocate cutting back on defense spending, the
second-largest expense item after entitlements.
• Defense spending has risen substantially in recent years, due to the wars in
Afghanistan and Iraq, and other costs related to the Global War on Terror. As a
percentage of GDP, however, defense spending in the U.S. remains below its 60-
year trend.
• On an inflation-adjusted basis, U.S. defense spending is at its highest level since
World War II. With overhead ~40% of all spending, the Defense Business Board
found DoD consistently pays “more for less” and fails to attack overhead as the
private sector would. 1
• The Esquire Commission to Balance the Federal Budget, a group of four former
Republican and Democratic senators, found over $300 billion 2 in defense
restructuring opportunities, and other analysts proposed gradual cuts to reduce
the defense budget by 14% by 2018. 3
Notes: 1) The Defense Business Board , “Reducing Overhead and Improving Business Operations, “July 2010, http://dbb.defense.gov; 2) see Esquire
Commission to Balance the Federal Budget, http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/federal-budget-statistics-1110.; 3) Gordon Adams and Matthew
Leatherman, “A Leaner and Meaner National Defense,” Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2011)
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
63
Defense Spending Has Risen,
Driven by Wars in Afghanistan + Iraq…
USA Inc. Inflation-Adjusted* Defense Spending by Type, F1948 - F2010
$800B
U.S. Inflation-Adjusted Defense Spending ($B)
$600B
$400B
$200B
Korean War
Vietnam War
Cold War
Gulf War
Afghanistan
/ Iraq
Other
RDT&E**
Procurement
Operations &
Maintenance
Personnel
$B
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Adjusted for inflation using GDP price index. **RDT&E is Research, Development, Test & Evaluation.
Source: White House OMB.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
64
…While Defense Spending Rose to 5% of GDP in F2010 &
Is Up from All-Time Historical Low of 3% in F1999
But It Is Still Well Below Post-World War II (1948-2000) Average of 7%
20%
USA Inc. Defense Spending as % of GDP, F1948 - F2010
U.S. Defense Spending as % of GDP
15%
10%
5%
1948-2000 Average = 7%
5%
0%
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Source: White House OMB.
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
65
$950 Billion = Cumulative Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan &
Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11/01 Attacks
Cumulative Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan & Global War on Terror
Operations of $950 Billion, as Percent of F2001-F2009 Spending:
4% of Total F2001-F2009 Federal Spending
� 22% of Total F2001-F2009 Defense Spending
� 28% of Total F2001-F2009 Federal Budget Deficit
Cumulative Cost of:
$685 Billion = War in Iraq
$231 Billion = War in Afghanistan
$34 Billion = Other Related Operations
www.kpcb.com
Source: White House OMB, Congressional Research Service, “The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror
Operations Since 9/11,” 9/2/2010.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 66
While USA Inc. Ranks # 1 in Defense Spending…
$700
Top 25 Countries by 2009 Defense Spending, 2009
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$-
Singapore
Iran
Taiwan
Colombia
Poland
Netherlands
UAE
Greece
Israel
Turkey
Spain
Australia
Canada
Brazil
South Korea
India
Italy
Saudi Arabia
Japan
Germany
Russia
France
UK
China
Defense Spending ($B)
USA
www.kpcb.com
Note: Data for North Korea unavailable.
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
67
…USA Inc. Ranks # 6 in Defense Spending as Percent of GDP
10%
Top 25 Countries* by Defense Spending as Percent of GDP, 2009
Defense Spending as % of GDP
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
China
Taiwan
Turkey
Egypt
France
UK
Pakistan
India
Ukraine
Iran
South Korea
Algeria
Kuwait
Morocco
Chile
Russia
Greece
Colombia
Singapore
USA
Iraq
UAE
Israel
Oman
Saudi Arabia
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Ranking among countries with 2009 defense spending of $3 billion or higher; data for North Korea unavailable.
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
68
While USA Inc. Ranks # 2 in Number of Troops…
2,500
Top 20 Countries by Active Number of Troops, 2008
2,000
Active Troops (000)
1,500
1,000
500
0
Saudi Arabia
France
Japan
Germany
Colombia
Syria
Indonesia
Thailand
Brazil
Egypt
Vietnam
Turkey
Iran
Pakistan
South Korea
Russia
North Korea
India
USA
China
www.kpcb.com
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute; Center for Strategic and International Studies, Business Monitor International.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
69
…USA Inc. Ranks # 21 in Number of Troops Per Capita
50
Top 25 Countries by Active Number of Troops per 1000 Citizen, 2008
Active Troops per 1000 Citizen
40
30
20
10
0
France
Pakistan
Malaysia
Croatia
USA
Kuwait
Thailand
Belarus
Russia
Vietnam
Colombia
Egypt
Iraq
Iran
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Libya
South Korea
Greece
Syria
Singapore
Jordan
Israel
North Korea
www.kpcb.com
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute; Center for Strategic and International Studies, Business Monitor International.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
70
Drill Down on USA Inc.
Entitlement + Interest + One-Time Expenses for F2010
1
Entitlement
Spending
Medicaid
(-$273B Net Loss*)
Medicare
(-$272B Net Loss* 1 )
Unemployment
Benefits
(-$115B Net Loss*)
Social Security
(-$75B Net Loss* 1 )
2
Rising Debt
Level & Interest
Payments
Debt Level
($9T Outstanding)
Effective Interest
Rates
(2.2%)
Debt Composition
3
Periodic Large
One-Time
Charges
TARP
($26B Net Profit* 2 )
Fannie Mae /
Freddie Mac
(-$41B Net Loss*)
ARRA
(-$137B Net Loss*)
Note: *denotes F2010 net income / net loss of respective programs, data per White House OMB. 1) Medicare and Social Security net loss excludes Trust
Fund interest income. 2) TARP net loss includes proceeds from sale of warrants. TARP is Troubled Asset Relief Program; ARRA is American Recovery &
Reinvestment Act programs.
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
71
1
Drill Down on USA Inc.
Entitlement Spending for F2010
2
3
Entitlement
Spending
Medicaid
(-$273B Net Loss*)
Medicare
(-$272B Net Loss* 1 )
Unemployment
Benefits
(-$115B Net Loss*)
Social Security
(-$75B Net Loss* 1 )
Rising Debt
Level & Interest
Payments
Debt Level
($9T Outstanding)
Effective Interest
Rates
(2.2%)
Debt Composition
Periodic Large
One-Time
Charges
TARP
($26B Net Profit* 2 )
Fannie Mae /
Freddie Mac
(-$41B Net Loss*)
ARRA
(-$137B Net Loss*)
Note: *denotes F2010 net income / net loss of respective programs, data per White House OMB. 1) Medicare and Social Security net loss
excludes Trust Fund interest income. 2) TARP net loss includes proceeds from sale of warrants. TARP is Troubled Asset Relief Program; ARRA
is American Recovery & Reinvestment Act programs.
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
72
Entitlement Spending: Lacks Sufficient Dedicated Funding
� Entitlement programs were created with the best of intentions by
the Government. They serve many of the nation’s poorest, whose
struggles have been made worse by the financial crisis.
�
However, with the exception of Social Security (which was developed
with a pay-as-you-go funding plan and constructed to be legally flexible if
conditions change) and unemployment insurance (which was designed
to be flexible at State level), other entitlement plans (including Medicaid
and Medicare) were developed without sufficient dedicated funding.
Here we drill down on the funding trends for entitlement plans …
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
73
Entitlement Spending: Expenses Up 2x Over 15 Years
Annual Entitlement Spending Per Household = $16,600 per Year
USA Inc. Annual Entitlement Programs’ Total & Per-Household Expenses, F1995 – F2010
$2,400
$20,000
Entitlement Programs Annual Expenses ($B)
USA Inc. Entitlement Total Expenses ($B)
$2,000
$1,600
$1,200
$800
$400
Entitlement Expenses per Household ($)
$16,000
$12,000
$8,000
$4,000
Entitlement Expenses per Household ($)
$0
F1995 F1997 F1999 F2001 F2003 F2005 F2007 F2009
$0
www.kpcb.com
Note: Data are not adjusted for inflation. Entitlement programs include Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,
unemployment benefits, food & nutrition assistance, housing assistance and other. USA federal fiscal year ends in
September; Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 74
Entitlement Spending: Expenses Up 169%
Over Past 15 Years, While Dedicated Funding Up Only 70%**
…
…
F1995 F2000 F2005 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010
Entitlement Revenue ($B) $484 $653 $794 $838 $870 $900 $891 $865
Y/Y Growth -- 7% 8% 6% 4% 4% -1% -3%
Social Security $351 $481 $577 $608 $635 $658 $654 $632
% of Revenue 72% 74% 73% 73% 73% 73% 73% 73%
Medicare $96 $136 $166 $177 $185 $194 $191 $180
% of Revenue 20% 21% 21% 21% 21% 22% 21% 21%
Medicaid $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Unemployment Insurance $29 $28 $42 $43 $41 $40 $38 $45
% of Revenue 6% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5%
Other* $8 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $8 $8
% of Revenue 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Entitlement Expense ($B) $788 $937 $1,295 $1,357 $1,462 $1,582 $1,834 $1,984
Y/Y Growth -- 5% 6% 5% 8% 8% 16% 8%
Social Security $336 $409 $523 $549 $586 $617 $683 $707
% of Expense 43% 44% 40% 40% 40% 39% 37% 36%
Medicare $160 $197 $299 $330 $375 $391 $430 $452
% of Expense 20% 21% 23% 24% 26% 25% 23% 23%
Medicaid $108 $118 $182 $181 $191 $201 $251 $273
% of Expense 14% 13% 14% 13% 13% 13% 14% 14%
Unemployment Benefits $24 $23 $35 $34 $35 $45 $123 $160
% of Expense 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 7% 8%
Other* $161 $189 $256 $264 $275 $328 $347 $392
% of Expense 20% 20% 20% 19% 19% 21% 19% 20%
Entitlement Surplus / Deficit ($B) -$304 -$284 -$501 -$519 -$592 -$682 -$943 -$1,119
Net Margin (%) -63% -43% -63% -62% -68% -76% -106% -129%
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Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September; Medicaid is jointly funded by federal and state governments, and as a social welfare program (unlike a
social insurance program like Medicare), there is no dedicated trust fund. *Other expenses include family & other support assistance, earned income tax
credit, child tax credit and payments to states for foster care / adoption assistance. **We exclude Social Security & Medicare Part A trust funds interest
income as they are accounting gains rather than real revenue. Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
75
Entitlement Spending: Observation About Social Security & Medicare
Part A Trust Fund – More Like Accounting Values Than Real Dollars
�
�
�
�
Social Security Trust Fund balance (accumulated annual surpluses + interest income) = $2.5 trillion as of
2009; Medicare Part A Trust Fund balance = $304 billion as of 2009. These surpluses were invested in a
special (non-marketable) series of U.S. Treasury securities, which were then used to finance budget deficits
in other parts of USA Inc. like Medicaid & Nutrition Assistance.
As a result, many observers have argued that Social Security and Medicare Part A Trust Funds’ balances
are no more than accounting gains on paper owing to: 1) no ‘real’ assets (such as tradable stocks / real
estates…) in these Trust Funds as the special U.S. Treasury securities are non-marketable and 2) the
Treasury Department needs to raise taxes / cut other programs’ spending / borrow more money in the future
to meet any withdrawal requests.
We think that for Social Security and Medicare Part A programs, their Trust Funds’ balances have legal
value as USA Inc. is legally obliged to repay the principal and interest on the Treasury securities held in
respective Trust Funds.
However, we think that these Trust Fund balances have NO economic value as these cumulative surpluses
have been spent by USA Inc. to reduce the borrowing need in the past. When Social Security & Medicare
begin net withdrawal from their Trust Funds (likely in 2017E), USA Inc.’s debt levels + interest payments
growth could accelerate, owing to the double whammy of: 1) loss of revenue source (previous surpluses)
and 2) additional Treasury redemption costs related to Trust Funds’ withdrawal requests.
�
Consequently, we exclude Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds’ balances and interest income
from our financial models and calculate their liabilities on a net basis.
Data source: Social Security Administration, Dept. of Health & Human Services, CBO. Note: the economic value of Social Security Trust Fund is subject
www.kpcb.com
to debate, for a different perspective, refer to Peter Dimond and Peter Orszag, “Saving Social Security: A Balanced Approach,” p51 Box 3-5.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
76
Entitlement Spending: Non-Partisan CBO Advises Excluding Social Security /
Medicare Trust Funds’ Balances + Interest Income in Fiscal Analysis
� Trust funds can be useful mechanisms for monitoring the balance between
earmarked receipts and a program's spending, but they are basically an
accounting device, and their balances, even if "invested" in Treasury securities,
provide no resources to the government for meeting future funding commitments.
When those payments come due, the government must finance them in the
same way that it finances other commitments -- through taxes or borrowing from
the public. Thus, assessing the state of the federal government's future finances
requires measuring such commitments independently of their trust fund status or
the balance recorded in the funds.
� -- Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
� “Measures of the U.S. Government’s Fiscal Position Under Current Law,” 8/04
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
77
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Entitlement Spending: Funding Patterns of Some
Entitlement Programs Work Better than Others
Have Worked Relatively Well Financially:
• Social Security – Has operated at close to break-even - so far - thanks to sufficient payroll
tax income from a relatively large working-age population. In fact, Social Security has
worked so well, that its surplus net income has been used to finance other government
activities such as Medicaid.
• Unemployment Insurance – Has operated at close to break-even thanks to accumulated
net incomes during ‘good years’ (though expenses spiked to $123 billion / $160 billion in
2009 / 2010 from $45 billion in 2008 owing to recession).
Have Worked Relatively Poorly Financially:
• Medicaid – Has operated at an average annual loss of $160 billion with, in effect, an
average net margin of -100% over past 15 years; the annual dollar loss has risen from $108
billion to $273 billion because of rising healthcare costs and expanded enrollment.
• Medicare – Has operated at an average annual loss of $123 billion with, in effect, an
average net margin of -83% over past 15 years; the margin has fallen from -66% to -154%
(or -$64 billion in annual loss to -$272 billion) because of rising healthcare costs +
expanding coverage (added Part D prescription drug benefits through legislation in 2003,
rolled out in 2006).
Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
78
Entitlement Spending: What The Programs Are and
How They Have Evolved
Social Security Act signed into law by
President Roosevelt. Created during the
height of the Great Depression, the Act
provides monetary support to retired
people from payroll taxes paid by current
workers and employers.
Medicare Part D signed
into law to provide
federal subsidies to
prescription drugs for
Medicare beneficiaries.
Medicare cash
flow (incl. Trust
Fund interest)
turned negative
(-$5 billion).
Social Security Trust Fund
cash flow = $766 million.
Social Security Trust Fund
balance started to decline.
1935 1937 1965 1975 1983 2003 2008 2010E
Unemployment Insurance
signed into law as part of
the Social Security Act,
setting up a joint federalstate
program (funded via
taxing employers) to
provide temporary
monetary support to laidoff
workers.
Medicare & Medicaid
created to provide
hospital & medical
insurance to elderly
& disabled.
Amendments to
Social Security Act
raising taxes to
shore up funding
for the Social
Security Trust
Fund.
Social Security
cash flow (ex.
Trust Fund
interest)
projected to
turn negative by
Congressional
Budget Office.
www.kpcb.com
Source: Social Security Administration, Dept. of Health & Human Services.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
79
Entitlement Spending: 76% Is Directed to Social Security +
Medicare + Medicaid
Dedicated Entitlement Revenue
Breakdown, F2010
Total = $0.87T
Entitlement Spending Breakdown,
F2010
Total = $1.98T
Unemployment
Insurance
5%
Medicare
21%
Other
Social
Security
$632B
73% of
Total
Housing Assistance
Food & Nutrition
Assistance
Unemployment
Benefits
8%
Medicaid
14%
Other
Medicare
23%
Social
Security
$707B
36% of
Total
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Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September; Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
80
Entitlement Spending: Observations from Previous Slide
� Entitlement revenue was $0.87 trillion, yet entitlement
spending was $1.98 trillion in F2010.
� Entitlement spending exceeded entitlement revenue by
129% in F2010.
� Social Security (ex. Trust Fund interest income) accounted
for 73% of dedicated entitlement revenue yet only 36% of
entitlement spending in F2010 while Medicare accounted for
21% of revenue and 23% of spending and Medicaid
accounted for 0% of revenue and 14% of spending.
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
81
Entitlement Spending: Clarification On
‘Unfunded’ / ‘Net Responsibilities’…
� There is debate about the semantics of using words like unfunded / net
responsibilities to describe the financial status of entitlement programs like Social
Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
� ‘Unfunded’ – We define ‘unfunded’ liabilities for Social Security and Medicare as
the present value of future expenditures in excess of dedicated future revenue.
We call Social Security and Medicare ‘partially unfunded’ entitlement programs
as their future expenditures are projected to exceed dedicated future revenue.
� ‘Net Responsibilities’ – USA Inc. does not record these ‘unfunded’ financial
commitments as explicit liabilities on balance sheet, owing to Federal accounting
standards. 1
� USA Inc.’s Dept. of Treasury calls these commitments ‘net responsibilities’
or ‘net expenditures’ in its annual Financial Report of the U.S. Government.
� Medicaid – We view Medicaid as an ‘unfunded’ liability as there is no dedicated
revenue source to match expected expenses in our financial analysis. Medicaid
is jointly funded on a pay-as-you go basis by Federal and State general tax
revenue.
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Note: 1) per Dept. of Treasury, “2004 Financial Report of the United States Government.”
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
82
…Entitlement Spending: Clarification On
‘Unfunded’ / ‘Net Responsibilities’
� Unless they are reduced, USA Inc.’s financial liabilities -- whether they are actual
debt or the present value of future promises, whether called ‘unfunded’ liabilities or
‘net responsibilities’ and whether funded by dedicated taxes or general revenue –
represent significant claims on USA Inc.’s future economic resources.
� To be sure, the projected unfunded liabilities are not the same as debt, because
Congress can change the laws that are behind those future promises. With a few
exceptions, however, over the past 60 years, lawmakers have acted to boost rather
than reduce them.
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
83
Entitlement Spending: Social Security Funding Has Worked, So Far While
Medicare/Medicaid Are Underfunded by $5.6 Trillion Since Inception in 1965
Annual Net Income of Social Security / Medicare / Medicaid ($B)
$150
$100
$50
$0
-$50
-$100
-$150
-$200
-$250
Annual Real Net Income of Social Security / Medicare / Medicaid, 1940 – 2009
Social Security
Medicare (Part A / B / D)
Medicaid
Social Security Reform of 1983
Raised taxes by 2.3%
Reduced benefits by 5%
2003
Medicare Part D
(Prescription Drug
Benefits) Signed
into Law
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Note: Real net income are inflation-adjusted using White House OMB’s GDP price index (based on BEA’s data); calculated as total revenue (tax receipts,
excluding trust fund interest revenue) minus total expenditures; Medicare Part B / D and Medicaid do not have dedicated funding source. Source: Social
Security Administration, White House Office of Management and Budget.
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
84
Entitlement Spending: Medicare & Medicaid Payments per Beneficiary
Have Risen Faster than Social Security Payments
Owing to Rising Healthcare Costs + Expanded Coverage
% Change from 1966
2500%
2000%
1500%
1000%
500%
0%
Percent Change in Real* Annual Social Security / Medicare / Medicaid
Payments per Beneficiary From 1966
Medicaid
Social Security
Medicare
1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
1966-2009
CAGR
Medicare
+8%
Medicaid
+3%
Social Security
+2%
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Note: Data are inflation adjusted using White House OMB’s GDP price index (based on BEA’s data).
Source: Social Security Administration, Dept. of Health & Human Services.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
85
Entitlement Spending: Program Beneficiaries (Now 29%* of Population vs.
13%* in 1966) Have Grown Faster than Population
Owing to Aging Population + Expanded Eligibility
Social Security / Medicare / Medicaid Enrollment & as % of Total Population, 1966 - 2009
160
140
120
Social Security
Medicare
Medicaid
% of Total Population*
40%
30%
Total Enrollment (MM)
100
80
60
40
20%
10%
As % of Population
20
0
1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
0%
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Note: *Excludes our estimated dual / triple enrollees in Social Security / Medicare / Medicaid. Source: Social Security
Administration, Dept. of Health & Human Services.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
86
Entitlement Spending: While Beneficiaries From Aging Population
Rose 2x From 1966 to 2009, Beneficiaries From Expanded Eligibility
(Low-Income / Disabled) Rose 10x
Combined Social Security + Medicare + Medicaid Enrollment
by Old Age Group vs. Expanded Eligibility Group, 1966 - 2009
Total Enrollment (MM)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
Expanded Eligibility (Low Income / Disabled)
Old Age
% of Total Population
40%
30%
20%
10%
As % of Population
20
0
1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
0%
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Note: *Excludes our estimated dual / triple enrollees in Social Security / Medicare / Medicaid. Source: Social Security
Administration, Dept. of Health & Human Services.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
87
Entitlement Spending: Entitlement Program + Government Employee
Beneficiaries Are Now 36%* of Population vs. 20%* in 1966
200
Social Security / Medicare / Medicaid Enrollment + Government Employees
& as % of Total Population, 1966 - 2009
40%
Number of People in Entitlement
Programs + on Governemnt Payroll (MM)
160
120
80
40
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
As % of Population
0
0%
1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Medicaid
Medicare
Social Security
Federal Government (ex. Military)
Military
State & Local Government
% of Total Population*
Note: *Excludes our estimated dual / triple enrollees in Social Security / Medicare / Medicaid. Source: Social Security
Administration, Dept. of Health & Human Services, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
88
Entitlement Spending per Beneficiary: Inflation-Adjusted Average Pre-Tax
Income from Entitlement Programs Has Gone Up 3x Since 1966
to $12K in 2008, or 15% of Average Pre-Tax Income
Inflation-Adjusted Pre-Tax Income from Entitlement Programs 1 per Beneficiary
& As % of Average Pre-Tax Income, 1966 - 2008
Annual Pre-Tax Income from Entitlement
Programs per Beneficiary ($ / year)
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Entitlement Income as % of Average Pre-Tax
Income
Average Pre-Tax Income from Entitlement Programs
As % of Total Pre-Tax Income
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Note: 1) Entitlement Income calculated as Government Social Benefits to persons less Veterans benefits.
Source: Social Security Administration, Dept. of Health & Human Services, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
89
Entitlement Spending: Rising Entitlement Income Is
Highly Correlated (82%) with Falling Personal Savings
24%
Personal Savings vs. Entitlement 1 Income
as % of Average Disposable Income, 1970 - 2010
Savings as % of Average Disposable Income
Entitlement Income / Personal Savings
as % of Disposable Income
20%
16%
12%
8%
4%
Entitlement / Welfare Income as % of Average Disposable Income
1970 - 2010
Correlation: -82%
0%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
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Note: 1) Entitlement Income calculated as Government social benefits to persons in the NIPA
series Table 2.1. Savings rate is the amount of money saved divided by income after taxes.
Sources: BEA
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 90
Entitlement Spending: Observation from Previous Slide
� Clearly, lower interest rates have allowed Americans to
borrow more and save less. But given the high correlation
between rising entitlement income for beneficiaries and
declining savings rates, one might also wonder if Americans
feel less compelled to save money as they feel that they can
depend on the government to give them money.
Note: Savings rate is the amount of money saved divided by income after taxes.
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
91
Entitlement Spending: Social Security Now Provides
37% of an Average Retiree’s Income, Up From 31% in 1962
Sources of Retirement Income for Average Americans, 1962 - 2008
50%
40%
Personal
Earnings*
% Total Pension
30%
20%
10%
Social
Security
Pensions +
IRAs +
401(k)s**
0%
1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004
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Note: *Personal earnings include income from investment & assets + salaries; ** occupational pensions include regular payments from private
pensions, government employee pensions, IRAs, 401(k)s. Source: Social Security Administration Office of Retirement and Disability Policy
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
92
Next, We Drill Down on Entitlement Programs…
• We begin with the programs with the least sound
financials (Medicaid and Medicare) and end with the
programs with the most sound financials
(Unemployment Insurance and Social Security), as of
today.
• We then move to a drilldown of rising healthcare costs
after the Medicaid and Medicare drilldowns.
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
93
1
Entitlement
Spending
Medicaid
(-$273B Net Loss*)
Medicare
(-$272B Net Loss* 1 )
Unemployment
Benefits
(-$115B Net Loss*)
Social Security
(-$75B Net Loss* 1 )
2
Rising Debt
Level & Interest
Payments
Debt Level
($9T Outstanding)
Effective Interest
Rates
(2.2%)
Debt Composition
3
Periodic Large
One-Time
Charges
TARP
($26B Net Profit* 2 )
Fannie Mae /
Freddie Mac
(-$41B Net Loss*)
ARRA
(-$137B Net Loss*)
Note: *denotes F2010 net income / net loss of respective programs, data per White House OMB. 1) Medicare and Social Security net loss
excludes Trust Fund interest income. 2) TARP net loss includes proceeds from sale of warrants. TARP is Troubled Asset Relief Program; ARRA
is American Recovery & Reinvestment Act programs.
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
94
Medicaid: Facing Accelerating Cash Flow Deficits
� Social Welfare Program – Created in 1965 to provide health insurance to low-income
population (2% of Americans under coverage then and 16% now*).
� No Dedicated Funding – Federal funding comes from general revenue (all forms of tax
receipts).
� Ever-Growing Expenses – $273 billion in F2010, up 2x from 10 years ago.
� Rising Healthcare Costs – Owing to aging population + unhealthy life styles +
technology advances.
�
�
Growing Beneficiary + Benefits – Covered beneficiaries expanded beyond lowincome
group in 1980s to include additional groups (like individuals who have high
medical expenses and have spent down their assets, and some of those who lost
their employer-sponsored healthcare insurance coverage in recession), while
covered benefits expanded to include prescription drugs / dental services. Total
expenditures on these new groups and benefits represented ~60% of Medicaid
program’s spending in 2001, per Kaiser Family Foundation estimates. See
slide 319-322 for more details.
Moral Hazard – As a “free good,” Medicaid reduced demand for private long-term
insurance 1 while regulation loopholes + need-based benefit policies created
incentives to abuse the Medicaid reimbursement system.
Note: 1) for more information, please see Jeffrey Brown and Amy Finkelstein, “The Interaction of Public and Private Insurance: Medicaid and the Long-Term
Care Insurance Market,” 2006. *Medicaid enrollment was 4MM (population 196MM) in 1966 and 50MM (population 305MM) in 2009. Source: National Center
for Health Statistics, Kaiser Family Foundation, World Bank, Social Security Administration.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 95
Medicaid: Underfunded by $3.7 Trillion Over 45 Years,
With No Dedicated Funding
$0
USA Federal Real Medicaid Expenses & NPV of Liabilities, F1966 – F2010
$0
USA Inc. Medicaid Net Income ($B)
-$50
-$100
-$150
-$200
-$250
Real Medicaid Expenses
Net Present Value of Medicaid Liabilities
-$5
-$10
-$15
-$20
-$25
-$30
-$35
Net Present Value of Medicaid Liabilities ($T)
-$300
1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September; Data are inflation adjusted. Calculation of net present value of liability based on 75-year Medicaid spending
projections from CBO, assuming a 3% discount rate (long-run average of real 10-yr treasury yields). Source: White House Office of Management and Budget,
Congressional Budget Office.
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 96
-$40
Medicaid: Enrollment Is Up 12x to 49 Million While Annual Payments per
Beneficiary Are Up 4x to $5K From 1966 to 2009
Real Annual Medicaid Payments per Beneficiary & Enrollment, 1966 - 2009
$5,000
50
$4,500
Enrollment
Payments per Beneficiary ($/year)
$4,000
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
Annual Benefits per Enrollee
40
30
20
10
Enrollment (MM)
$500
$0
1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
0
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Note: Data are inflation adjusted. Source: Dept. of Health & Human Services.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
97
Medicaid: Observations
� 49 million (26MM low-income children / 12MM low-income adults / 7MM
disabled / 4MM elderly) Americans (16% of population) received an
average of $4,684 in tax-payer funded payments from the federal
government for healthcare in 2009. For context, $6,872 in healthcare
benefits is 13% of average annual per-capita income for Americans.
� When Medicaid was created in 1965 to provide health insurance to lowincome
Americans, 1 in 50 Americans received Medicaid, now 1 in 6
Americans receives Medicaid.
� That said, Medicaid is an important benefit for recipients as it provides
access to healthcare for low-income adults and their children. In recent
years, Medicaid beneficiaries and benefit payments have risen faster than
population and per-capita income growth owing to expanded coverage,
economic difficulties and associated sluggish wage growth for low- and
lower-middle-income families, and continued healthcare cost inflation.
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Note: Data are inflation adjusted. Source: Dept. of Health & Human Services.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
98
Medicaid: While We Focus on Federal Government Dynamics, It’s Notable
that State Government Medicaid Funding Also Faces Significant Challenges
�
�
Medicaid = Major and Growing Expense Line Item for State Governments
�
�
�
Medicaid funding responsibility is shared between federal & state governments. States with higher
per-capita income (like New York) pay ~50% of total Medicaid cost while states with lower per-capita
income (like Mississippi) pay ~22%.
On average, Medicaid accounted for 21% of total state spending in F2009 (ranging from Missouri at
35% to Alaska at 8%). Enrollment growth has been accelerating, in part, owing to more people losing
employer-sponsored health insurance in the recession, and thus overall Medicaid costs jumped ~11%
Y/Y from October, 2009 to June, 2010.
State governments (which unlike the federal government must balance their annual budgets) cannot
pay for such elevated levels of Medicaid and maintain normal spending levels for other services (like
education and public safety).
Enter the Federal Government
�
ARRA (2009 economic stimulus) provided ~$100 billion in support for the states to pay for elevated
levels of Medicaid costs and to avoid large budget cuts in education and public safety. This went a
long way toward holding down the states’ contribution, but it is a one-time unsustainable fix.
� Federal Support May Be Expiring by June, 2011
�
If no action is taken, the Medicaid-related cost burden on the states will rise dramatically in coming
years. As a result, many states are on the verge of implementing Medicaid cost containment plans
that include cuts in doctor payments, benefit limitations, higher patient co-payments, etc. Moreover,
many states are fearful that the recently enacted healthcare reform will lead to additional Medicaidrelated
costs when it goes into full effect in 2014.
www.kpcb.com
Data Source: National Conference of State Legislatures, “State Budget Update: July 2009.”
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
99
1
Entitlement
Spending
Medicaid
(-$273B Net Loss*)
Medicare
(-$272B Net Loss* 1 )
Unemployment
Benefits
(-$115B Net Loss*)
Social Security
(-$75B Net Loss* 1 )
2
Rising Debt
Level & Interest
Payments
Debt Level
($9T Outstanding)
Effective Interest
Rates
(2.2%)
Debt Composition
3
Periodic Large
One-Time
Charges
TARP
($26B Net Profit* 2 )
Fannie Mae /
Freddie Mac
(-$41B Net Loss*)
ARRA
(-$137B Net Loss*)
Note: *denotes F2010 net income / net loss of respective programs, data per White House OMB. 1) Medicare and Social Security net loss
excludes Trust Fund interest income. 2) TARP net loss includes proceeds from sale of warrants. TARP is Troubled Asset Relief Program; ARRA
is American Recovery & Reinvestment Act programs.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 100
Medicare: Complex Social Insurance Program
With Insufficient Funding
� Social Insurance Program – Created in 1965 to provide health insurance to the elderly (65+).
� Four Parts – A) Hospital Insurance (to cover inpatient expenses, introduced in 1965); B)
Medical Insurance (optional outpatient expenses, 1965); C) Medicare Advantage Plans
(private alternative to A&B, 1997) and D) Prescription Drug Coverage (enacted 2003).
� Funding Mechanism Varies
� Part A has dedicated funding via payroll taxes (2.9% of total payroll), though has been
running at an annual deficit since 2008 as related payments exceed taxes; Trust Fund is
expected to be depleted by 2017E, per Social Security Administration.
� Part B & D has no dedicated funding (75% of funding came from government allocation /
25% came from enrollees’ premium payments).
� Part C funding came Part A & Part B.
� Ever-Growing Expenses – $452 billion expenses in F2010, up 2x from 10 years ago
� Rising Healthcare Costs – Owing to aging population + unhealthy life styles + technology
advances.
� Moral Hazard – As a “free good,” Medicare reduced demand for private long-term
insurance 1 while loopholes in the regulations + need-based benefit policies created
incentives to abuse the system.
Note: 1) for more information, please see Jeffrey Brown and Amy Finkelstein, “The Interaction of Public and Private Insurance: Medicaid and the Long-Term
Care Insurance Market,” 2006. Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Kaiser Family Foundation, World Bank, Social Security Administration.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 101
Medicare: Underfunded by $1.9 Trillion Over 45 Years
USA Inc. Real Annual Medicare Revenue & Expenses, 1966 – 2009
$300
$200
Medicare Revenue / Expenses ($B)
$100
$0
-$100
-$200
-$300
-$400
Medicare Part B / D Expenditure
Medicare Part A Expenditure
Medicare Part A Tax Receipts
Total Medicare Net Income
-$500
1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Note: Medicare Part A (hospital insurance) has dedicated trust fund while Part B (medical insurance) and Part D (prescription
drug benefits) do not have dedicated funding. Data are inflation adjusted. Source: Dept. of Health & Human Services..
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 102
Medicare: Enrollment Up 2x to 46 Million While Annual Payments per
Beneficiary Up 26x to $8,325 From 1966 to 2009
Real Annual Medicare Payments per Beneficiary & Enrollment, 1966 – 2009
$10,000
50
Medicare Payments per Beneficiary ($/year)
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
Enrollment
Annual Per Cap Benefits (in 2005 dollars)
40
30
20
10
Enrollment (MM)
$0
1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
0
www.kpcb.com
Note: Data are inflation adjusted using BEA’s GDP price index. Source: Dept. of Health & Human Services.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
103
Medicare: Observations
� 46 million elderly Americans (15% of population) received an average
of $8,325 in tax-payer funded payments for healthcare in 2009 ($5,079
for hospital care; $3,246 for medical insurance & prescription drugs).
� On the surface, $8,325 in free healthcare benefits every year certainly
seems like a high number – 23% of annual per-capita income –
(although working Medicare recipients do pay Medicare taxes).
� As with employer-sponsored health insurance plans, if people, in effect, get
a free benefit (with little personal financial commitment), they may not be
especially diligent and frugal about how they ‘spend’ it. The same concept
extends beyond healthcare recipients to the healthcare providers.*
� When Medicare was created in 1965 to provide health insurance to elderly
Americans, 1 in 10 Americans received Medicare, now 1 in 7 Americans receives
Medicare…above the initial ‘plan.’
www.kpcb.com
Note: *The issue that people overuse services for which they do not have personal financial commitment applies to most
private insurance as well. For a more detailed discussion, see slide 293. Data are inflation adjusted using BEA’s GDP price
index. Source: Dept. of Health & Human Services.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 104
Total Government* Healthcare Spending Increases are Staggering –
Up 7x as % of GDP Over Five Decades vs. Education Spending, Only Up 0.6x
8%
USA Total Government Healthcare vs. Education Spending as % of GDP, 1960 – 2009
8.2%
Spending as % of GDP
6%
4%
2%
1.2%
Total Government (Federal + State + Local) Spending on Healthcare
Total Government (Federal + State + Local) Spending on Education
0%
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Total government spending on healthcare includes Medicare, Medicaid and other programs such as federal
employee and veteran health benefits; total government spending on education includes spending on pre-primary through
tertiary education programs. Source: Dept. of Education, Dept. of Health & Human Services.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
105
Since Their Creation in 1965, Medicare + Medicaid Have Grown
to 35% of Total USA, Inc. Healthcare Spending in 2008 from 0%
USA Total Healthcare Spending by Funding Source, 1960 vs. 2009
Other Private Funds
Consumer
Out-of-pocket
Payments
1960
Total Healthcare
Spending = $187B*
47%
7%
Other Government
Funds**
25%
21%
Private Health
Insurance
Consumer
Out-of-pocket
Payments
Private Health
Insurance
Other Private Funds
2009
Total Healthcare
Spending = $2.5T*
12%
32%
8%
20%
13%
Medicare
15%
Medicaid
(Federal
+ State +
Local)
Other Government
Funds**
Note: *Adjusted for inflation, in 2005 dollars. ** Other government funds include those from Dept. of Defense, Veterans’ Administration and federal funding
for healthcare research and public health activities. Source: U.S. Department of Health & Human Services.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 106
Think About That…
� Total government spending on healthcare (including Medicare, Medicaid and
other programs) has risen 7x from 1.2% of GDP in 1960 to 8.2% in 2009 while
total government spending on education has risen only 0.6x from 4% of GDP in
1960 to 6% in 2009.
� Medicare and Medicaid, which did not exist in 1960, rose to 35% of total healthcare
spending in 2009, while out-of-pocket spending declined to 12% of total healthcare
spending in 2009 (or $894 per person per year*), down from 47% in 1960 (or $478
per person*).
� Lifetime healthcare costs for the average American are $631,000, of which the
government pays for an estimated 48% while private insurers (like UnitedHealth and
Blue Cross Blue Shield) pay 32% and consumers pay just 12%.
� When citizens don’t need to pay directly for something (like healthcare) and are given
an expensive good / service for free (or well below cost), they tend to consume more
of it – it’s basic supply and demand economics.
� This approach faces increasing challenges as USA, Inc. has gone deeper and
deeper in debt to pay for it…
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Adjusted for inflation, in 2005 dollars. Nominal amount would be $972 out-of-pocket healthcare spending per person in
2008 and $70 per person in 1960. Source: U.S. Department of Health & Human Services.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 107
USA Healthcare Spending Is Higher Than All Other OECD Countries Combined
(with 35% of Other OECD Countries’ Combined Population)
Total Health Spending ($B)
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
Total Expenditure* on Health Among OECD Countries, 2007
Public Private
USA Spending on Healthcare in 2007 = $2.2T
All Other OECD Countries’ Combined Spending = $2.2T
Iceland
Luxembourg
Slovak Republic
New Zealand
Ireland
Finland
Hungary
Czech Republic
Denmark
Norway
Portugal
Greece
Sweden
Austria
Switzerland
Belgium
Poland
Turkey
Netherlands
Australia
Korea
Mexico
OECD average
Spain
Canada
Italy
UK
France
Germany
Japan
USA
Note: OECD data adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity. *Total expenditure on health measures the final consumption of health goods and services (i.e., current
health expenditure) plus capital investment in healthcare infrastructure. This includes spending by both public and private sources (including households) on medical
services and goods, public health and prevention programs, and administration. Excluded are health-related expenditures such as training, research, and
environmental health. Source: OECD, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development is an international organization of 31 developed and emerging
countries with a shared commitment to democracy and the market economy.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 108

USA Per Capita Spending on Healthcare =
3x OECD Average
Annual Per Capita Health Spending ($)
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
Annual Per Capita Expenditure* on Health Among OECD Countries, 2007
Public
Private
Turkey
Mexico
Poland
Hungary
Slovak Republic
Korea
Czech Republic
Portugal
New Zealand
Japan
Greece
Spain
Italy
OECD average
Finland
UK
Ireland
Belgium
Iceland
Sweden
Australia
Denmark
Netherlands
Germany
France
Austria
Canada
Switzerland
Norway
Luxembourg
USA
Note: OECD data adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity. *Total expenditure on health measures the final consumption of health goods and services (i.e.,
current health expenditure) plus capital investment in healthcare infrastructure. This includes spending by both public and private sources (including
households) on medical services and goods, public health and prevention programs, and administration. Excluded are health-related expenditures such as
training, research, and environmental health. Source: OECD.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 109
USA Spending on Healthcare as % of GDP =
2x OECD Average
Total Health Spending as % of GDP
16%
12%
8%
4%
0%
Total Healthcare Spending as % of GDP Health Among OECD Countries, 2007
Public
Private
Turkey
Mexico
Korea
Poland
Czech
Luxembourg
Hungary
Ireland
Slovak
Japan
Finland
UK
Spain
Italy
OECD
Australia
Norway
Netherlands
New
Sweden
Iceland
Greece
Denmark
Belgium
Portugal
Canada
Austria
Germany
Switzerland
France
USA
Note: OECD data adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity. *Total expenditure on health measures the final consumption of health goods and services (i.e., current
health expenditure) plus capital investment in healthcare infrastructure. This includes spending by both public and private sources (including households) on
medical services and goods, public health and prevention programs, and administration. Excluded are health-related expenditures such as training, research, and
environmental health. Source: OECD.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 110

USA Spending on Healthcare IS NOT Performance-Based
and IS NOT Correlated to Longer Life Expectancy
85
Healthcare Spending per capita vs. Average Life Expectancy Among OECD Countries, 2007
Average Life Expectancy at Birth (Years)
80
75
Mexico
S. Korea
Hungary
Japan
UK
Linear Trend line (ex. USA)
�
USA
70
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Total Expenditure on Health per capita, $US (PPP Adj.)
www.kpcb.com
Source: OECD.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
111
In Addition to Life Expectancy, USA Falls Behind
OECD Averages in Many Other Health Indicators
2007 Health Indicators
USA
OECD
Median
USA Ranking
(1 = Best, 30 = Worst)
RED = Below Average
Obesity (% of total population) 34 15 30
Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births) 7 4 27
Medical Resources Available (per 1,000 population)
Total Hospital Beds 3 6 25
Practicing Physicians 2 3 22
Doctors’ Consultations per Year 4 6 19
MRI Machines* (per million population) 26 9 1
Cause of Death (per 100,000 population)
Heart Attack 216 178 22
Respiratory Diseases 60 45 21
Diabetes 20 12 20
Cancer 158 159 14
Stroke 33 45 8
www.kpcb.com
Note: *MRI is Magnetic Resonance Imaging. Source: OECD.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 112
Think About That…
� USA per capita healthcare spending is 3x OECD average, yet the
average life expectancy and a variety of health indicators in the US
fall below average.
� But if you spend way more than everyone else, shouldn’t your
results (a.k.a. ‘performance’) be better than everyone else’s, or at
least near the top?
� Should you examine sources of waste/inefficiency given lower
output despite greater input?
� Definition of ‘Performance’ = Amount of useful work accomplished
given certain amount of time and resources.
� Definition of ‘Efficient’ = Obtains maximum benefit from a given
level of input of cost, time, or effort.
www.kpcb.com
Note: OECD data adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity. * Lifetime healthcare costs = life expectancy (years) x per capita
healthcare spending ($ per year, 2006). Source: OECD, US Dept. of Health & Human Services.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
113
Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA)
PPACA – America’s new healthcare reform legislation, signed into law on
3/23/10 – creates some reason for concern that it could become an
unfunded entitlement.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 114
PPACA: A Detailed Drilldown into Costs of Recent Healthcare Reform Is Key
as it May Increase Budget Deficit…
� Congressional Budget Office expects Reform to lower the deficit by $143
billion during 2010-19
�
Gross cost of $938 billion for expanded coverage, per CBO.
� Less: $511 billion in spending cuts from lower Medicare reimbursement rate + $420
billion in tax revenues (excl. excise tax) from higher payroll tax rates on high-income
families and indoor tanning services + $149 billion in penalty payments by
employers/individuals and excise tax on “Cadillac” insurance plans with annual cost
exceeding $10,000 for individual / $28,000 for families.
Source: CBO.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
115
� Issues With Official Cost Estimates to Consider
�
�
�
�
Deficit neutral status somewhat reliant on future lawmakers’ willingness to implement Medicare
savings/reimbursement reductions:
� Reductions in payment rates for many types of Healthcare providers relative to the rates that
would have been paid under prior law (always a politically difficult decision).
� However the good news is that recommendations from the Independent Payment Advisory
Board focused on reducing growth in per capita Medicare spending if it exceeds target
automatically become the law without congressional intervention if Congress allows IPAB to
operate as planned.
CBO estimates the effects of proposals as written: CBO acknowledges that it is unclear whether
reform can actually reduce the annual growth rate in Medicare spending from 4% (historical
average) to 2% for the next two decades, as PPACA estimates assume.
Relies on excise taxes on sectors of the healthcare industry that could be passed through to
consumers via price increases.
Starting in 2018, assumes taxation of high premium employment-based health insurance plans.
� Opportunities For Cost Savings to Consider
�
�
Increased access to preventative care could potentially slow down overall healthcare cost growth.
Such potential effect is not captured in CBO scoring.
Investments in information technology and new provider & consumer incentives can drive better
and more efficient care.
www.kpcb.com
PPACA –
Verdict Is Still Out on Eventual Costs / Deficit Impact
Source: Morgan Stanley Healthcare Research.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 116
PPACA –
There Is Potential for ‘Unintended’ Consequences
� The new law changes some system incentives, which may lead to new behavior
patterns, many of which are complex and hard to predict.
� The market may adapt to new MLR (Medical Loss Ratio) rules that incentivize
and reward a very specific (but ultimately arbitrary) cost structure.
� The cost/benefit analysis for employers and consumers may change, and
some may opt to re-evaluate their current employer-sponsored coverage
offerings.
� Health plans that are no longer economically viable may exit markets, potentially
adding to the uninsured problem prior to 2014.
� Likely acceleration in consolidation of payers as well as providers.
www.kpcb.com
Source: Doug Simpson, Morgan Stanley Healthcare Research.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
117
Historical Anecdote – “An Accurate Economic Forecast Might Have
Sunk Medicare & Medicaid [in 1965]”
• In 1965, the official estimate of Medicare’s costs was $500 million per year,
roughly $3 billion in 2005 dollars.*
• The actual cost of Medicare has turned out to be 10x that estimate.
• Medicare’s actual net loss (tax receipts + trust fund interest – expenditures)
has exceeded $3 billion (adjusted for inflation) every year since 1976 and
was $146 billion in 2008 alone. In other words, had the original estimate been
accurate, the cumulative 43-year cost since Medicare was created would
have been $129 billion, adjusted for inflation.
• In fact, the actual cumulative spending has been $1.4 trillion** (adjusted for
inflation)...in effect, 10x over budget.
• While calculations have been flawed from the beginning for some of USA Inc.’s
entitlement programs, little has been done to correct the problems.
� An accurate economic forecast might have sunk Medicare.
David Blumenthal and James Morone
“The Lessons of Success – Revisiting the Medicare Story”, November 2008
www.kpcb.com
Sources: * Lyndon B. Johnson Library & Museum. Medicare spending data per White House OMB.
**Dept. of Health & Human Services, CMS, data adjusted for inflation based on BEA’s GDP price index.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 118
If History is a Guide, There is Potential for Estimates to Understate
Eventual Costs – Medicare Is 10x Higher Than Spending Forecast
120
Actual vs. Estimated Spending on Medicare
In reality, total
spending
increased 61.1x
Annual Medicare Spending ($MM adjusted for
inflation)
100
80
60
40
20
In the first year of
Medicare, total
spending was
$1.8bn
In 1967, the House
Ways & Means
Committee estimated
spending would
increase 6.7x by 1990
$12B
$110B
0
www.kpcb.com
$2B
1966A 1990E (in 1967) 1990A
Source: Senate Joint Economic Committee Report, 7/31/09
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
119
However, More Recent Healthcare Entitlement Such as Medicare
part D Has Cost Less Than Expected
� Medicare Part D (the 2006 outpatient drug benefit for seniors) was projected to
cost $111 billion annually.
� In 2009, Medicare Part D’s actual cost = $61 billion, 45% below projection.
� The government originally projected 43 million beneficiaries in 2009, but only 33
million seniors (23% below projection) elected to participate in 2009.
� Medicare Part D was outsourced to the private sector, and seniors elected to
enroll in plans operated primarily by managed care organizations, which utilize a
variety of techniques to reduce costs and improve the quality of care.
� The Washington Times stated on August 16 th 2010 – "The lower cost - a result of
slowing demand for prescription drugs, higher use of generic drugs and fewer
people signing up - has surprised even some of the law's most pessimistic
critics."
� The Part D experience has given some observers hope that PPACA will not cost
more than anticipated.
www.kpcb.com
Source: Morgan Stanley Healthcare Research.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 120
1
Entitlement
Spending
Medicaid
(-$273B Net Loss*)
Medicare
(-$272B Net Loss* 1 )
Unemployment
Benefits
(-$115B Net Loss*)
Social Security
(-$75B Net Loss* 1 )
2
Rising Debt
Level & Interest
Payments
Debt Level
($9T Outstanding)
Effective Interest
Rates
(2.2%)
Debt Composition
3
Periodic Large
One-Time
Charges
TARP
($26B Net Profit* 2 )
Fannie Mae /
Freddie Mac
(-$41B Net Loss*)
ARRA
(-$137B Net Loss*)
Note: *denotes F2010 net income / net loss of respective programs, data per White House OMB. 1) Medicare and Social Security net loss
excludes Trust Fund interest income. 2) TARP net loss includes proceeds from sale of warrants. TARP is Troubled Asset Relief Program; ARRA
is American Recovery & Reinvestment Act programs.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 121
Unemployment Benefits: Long-Term Break-Even,
Though Prone to Cyclicality
� Social Insurance Program – Created in 1935 as part of the Social Security Act
to provide temporary financial assistance to eligible workers who are
unemployed through no fault of their own (via layoffs or natural disasters).
� Funded via Taxing Employers – Employers pay federal government 0.8% of
payroll (in addition to various levels of state unemployment insurance taxes) to
fund the Federal Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund.
� Funding = Pro-Cyclical – Rising employment increases revenue and reduces
benefit payments, generally leading to surpluses, while falling employment
reduces revenue and increases benefits payments, leading to periodically large
deficits during recessions.
� Flexible at the State Level by Design – State governments set policies on
unemployment benefit eligibility / duration / tax levels, while federal government
provide financial and legal oversight.
� Generally Break-Even – In 29 of the past 49 years, Federal unemployment
insurance programs have had surpluses. Excluding the 2009 / 2010 loss,
unemployment insurance had a cumulative surplus of $53 billion from 1962 to
2008.
www.kpcb.com
Source: White House OMB.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 122
Unemployment Benefits: Solid, Though Cyclical, Funding
But Underfunded by $150B Over 49 Years Owing to -$115B* Deficits in 2010
USA Inc. Real Annual Unemployment Insurance Revenue & Expenses, F1962 – F2010
$70
Unemployment Insurance Revenue / Expenses ($B)
$20
-$30
-$80
-$130
Unemployment Insurance Expenses
Unemployment Insurance Revenue
Unemployment Insurance Net Income
-$180
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September; *all data inflation-adjusted, based on 2005 dollars.
Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
123
Unemployment Benefits: In the Past, Benefits Paid
Have High (70%) Correlation to Unemployment Rate
Real Unemployment Benefits ($B)
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Real Unemployment Benefits & Unemployment Rates, 1962 – 2010
Real Unemployment Benefits
Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Unemployment Rates (%)
0
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
0%
www.kpcb.com
Note: Fiscal year ends in September. Source: White House Office of Management & Budget, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 124
Unemployment Benefits: Good News—Unemployment Change In the Past
Has Strong (71%) Inverse Correlation with Real GDP Change, so Economic
Growth Should Reduce Unemployment
Q/Q Unemployment Rate Change & Real GDP Change, CQ1:48 – CQ4:10
-20%
200%
Quarterly Unemployment Change
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Quarterly Unemployment Rate Change
Quarterly Real GDP Change (Inverse Scale)
20%
1Q48 1Q53 1Q58 1Q63 1Q68 1Q73 1Q78 1Q83 1Q88 1Q93 1Q98 1Q03 1Q08
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
-150%
Quarterly Real GDP Change (Inverse Scale)
www.kpcb.com
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
125
Unemployment Benefits: Bad News—Newly Extended Unemployment Benefits
Could Cost USA Inc. $34 Billion in Next Two Years
Net Cost of Extended Unemployment Benefits to Federal Government, F2010-2011E
$30,000
Cost of Extended Unemployment Benefits ($MM)
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
$9B
F2010E
$25B
F2011E
www.kpcb.com
Note: Net cost of the Unemployment Compensation Extension Act of 2010 is expected to decline substantially in F2012E
because the deadline to file for extended unemployment benefits expires in November 2010 and federal extended
unemployment insurance provides benefits for up to 99 weeks (less than two years). Source: Congressional Budget Office, 7/10.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 126
Unemployment Benefits: Bad News—Structural Problems in Labor Force
Could Lead to Prolonged Duration/Increased Rate of Unemployment
� Structural Problems in USA Labor Force
� Healthcare costs may be a barrier to hiring for employers
� Healthcare benefits = 8% of average total employee compensation; grew at
6.9% CAGR from 1998 to 2008 compared with 4.5% CAGR in salaries.
� Healthcare benefits are fixed costs as they are paid on an annual per-worker
basis and do not vary with hours worked.
� As employers try to lower fixed costs to right-size to their reduced revenue
levels, layoffs are the only way to reduce fixed healthcare costs.
� Skills mismatch may be a barrier to hiring for employers
� A large portion of the long-term unemployed may lack requisite skills.
� 14% of firms reported difficulty filling positions due to the lack of suitable talent,
per 5/10 Manpower Research survey.
� Labor immobility resulting from the housing bust may be a barrier to hiring
� One in four homeowners are “trapped” because they owe more than their
houses are worth, so they cannot move to take another job – until they sell or
walk away.
www.kpcb.com
Source: Richard Berner, “Why is US Employment So Weak” (7/23/10), Morgan Stanley Research.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
127
Unemployment Benefits: Bad News
Although economists have shown that extended availability of UI
[unemployment insurance] benefits will increase unemployment duration, the
effect in the latest downturn appears quite small compared with other
determinants of the unemployment rate. Our analyses suggest that extended
UI benefits account for about 0.4 percentage point of the nearly 6 percentage
point increase in the national unemployment rate over the past few years. It is
not surprising that the disincentive effects of UI would loom small in the midst
of the most severe labor market downturn since the Great Depression.
Despite the relatively minor influence of extended UI, it is important to note that
the 0.4 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate represents about
600,000 potential workers who could become virtually unemployable if their
reliance on UI benefits were to continue indefinitely.
Rob Valletta and Katherine Kuang, Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco
“Extended Unemployment and UI Benefits,” April 19, 2010.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 128
1
Entitlement
Spending
Medicaid
(-$273B Net Loss*)
Medicare
(-$272B Net Loss* 1 )
Unemployment
Benefits
(-$115B Net Loss*)
Social Security
(-$75B Net Loss* 1 )
2
Rising Debt
Level & Interest
Payments
Debt Level
($9T Outstanding)
Effective Interest
Rates
(2.2%)
Debt Composition
3
Periodic Large
One-Time
Charges
TARP
($26B Net Profit* 2 )
Fannie Mae /
Freddie Mac
(-$41B Net Loss*)
ARRA
(-$137B Net Loss*)
Note: *denotes F2010 net income / net loss of respective programs, data per White House OMB. 1) Medicare and Social Security net loss
excludes Trust Fund interest income. 2) TARP net loss includes proceeds from sale of warrants. TARP is Troubled Asset Relief Program; ARRA
is American Recovery & Reinvestment Act programs.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 129
Social Security: In Good Shape Now, Yet Challenged in Future
by Aging Population
� Social Insurance Program Created in 1935 – During height of the Great
Depression to help elderly (65+*) and disabled people avoid poverty.
� Pay-as-You-Go Funding – Social Security taxes deducted from current payrolls
to pay out to current eligible recipients of Social Security.
� For Most of its 8 Decades (1935-1970; 1985 - 2009), Annual Social Security
Payments Have Been Funded by Annual Social Security Taxes – However,
based on estimates from Congressional Budget Office (CBO), beginning in 2016
(or earlier), Social Security will begin running an annual deficit as payments
exceed taxes (at unchanged flat tax rate of 12.4% 1 of annual gross wages) – this
is a problem!
� Social Security Has Been Struck by Annual Deficit Crisis Before – From
1975 to 1981, Social Security expenses exceeded revenue every year, which
caused a 45% reduction in the Social Security Trust Fund balance. Legislation
recommended by the Greenspan Commission in 1983 reduced average benefits
by ~5% 2 and raised social insurance tax rates for individuals by ~2.3%. 3 But the
Greenspan Commission fix will run out soon as Social Security turns to operating
loss in 2016.
Note: *Early retirees (62+) could receive partial benefits between 62 and 65. 1) 6.2% taxes paid by employees and matched by employers on gross wages up to
but not exceeding the Social Security wage base of ~$100K; 2) total benefit cuts included $27B savings from benefit taxation for the wealthy and $66B savings
from delay in cost of living adjustments over 1984-1989; 3) average increase in entitlement payroll tax rates between 1982 and 1988, includes Medicare payroll
www.kpcb.com
taxes, per estimates from CBO. Source: Social Security Administration.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 130
Social Security: Financially Sound – So Far – Owing to
Increased Revenue / Reduced Spending Post 1983 Reform,
But ‘Operating Loss’ Resumed in 2009
150
Real Social Security Operating Income, 1957 – 2010
Real Net Income of Social Security Program ($B)
100
50
0
-50
Operating Income (Tax Receipts - Expenditures)
-100
1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Data is adjusted for inflation using White House OMB’s GDP price index (based on BEA’s data).
USA federal fiscal year ends in September; Source: Social Security Administration.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
131
Social Security: Enrollment Up 5x to 52 Million While Inflation-Adjusted
Annual Payments per Beneficiary Up 2x to $12K From 1957 to 2009
Real Annual Social Security Payments per Beneficiary & Enrollment, 1957 – 2009
$14,000
Enrollment
60
Annual Payments per Beneficiary ($/year)
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
Annual Per Cap Benefits (in 2005 dollars)
50
40
30
20
10
Enrollment (MM)
$0
1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
0
www.kpcb.com
Note: Data are inflation adjusted using BEA’s GDP price index. Source: Social Security Administration.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 132
Social Security: Observations
� 52 million retired Americans (17% of population) received an
average of $11,826 (in 2005 dollars) in Social Security payments
(32% of USA per-capita income) in 2009.
� By comparison, 10 million retired Americans (6% of population)
received an average of $5,447 (in 2005 dollars) in Social Security
payments (51% of per-capita income) in 1957.
� When Social Security was created in early 20 th century to provide
retirement income to elderly Americans, 1 in 127 Americans 1 (<1% of
population) received Social Security payments. Now 1 in 6 Americans
(17%) receive Social Security payments…well above the initial ‘plan.’
www.kpcb.com
Note: 1) Social Security was created in 1935, full data on enrollees not available until 1945.
Source: Social Security Administration.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
133
Social Security: America is Aging, and USA, Inc. Workers Are Required to
Support 5x More Beneficiaries (and Rising) than They Did in 1950!
1950 2010
6
33
Social Security
Beneficiaries
Supported by
100 Workers
Social Security
Beneficiaries
Supported by
100 Workers
www.kpcb.com
Source: Social Security Administration.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 134
Social Security: Each Retiree Was Supported by
42 Workers in 1945 & Just 3 Workers in 2009
Supporting Workers per Social Security Beneficiary, 1945 – 2030E
45
40
Forecast
Supporting Workers per Beneficiary
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015E 2025E
www.kpcb.com
Source: Social Security Administration.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
135
Think About That…
If you are a worker in USA, Inc.
(as 81 million tax-paying
Americans are), in effect, you have
5 times more ‘dependents*’ than
your parents had and 15 times
more than your grandparents.
www.kpcb.com
Note: * ‘Dependents’ = retirees who receive Social Security benefits primarily funded via payroll taxes on current working population.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 136
Analysts Often Think of Things as Math Problems…
So, how about
this one…
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
137
Americans Are Living 26% Longer, But Social Security ‘Retirement Age’ Has
Increased Only 3% Since Social Security Was Created in 1935…
USA Life Expectancy at Birth, 1935 & 2009 USA Full Retirement Age, 1935 & 2009
USA Life Expectancy at Birth (Years)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
62
+26%
78
USA Full Retirement Age (Years)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
65
+3%
67
10
10
0
1935 2009
0
1935 2009
Note: Full retirement age is 65 for people born in 1930; 67 for people born in 2009; Social Security Amendments of 1961 allowed early retirement to start at
62+ with reduced benefits. Source: National Center for Health Statistics, World Bank, Social Security Administration.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 138
That’s a Math Problem…
� If an expense rises by 26% and the ability to pay rises by only 3%,
the math doesn’t work. A computer in a science fiction movie might
blurt out, ‘does not compute…does not compute…’
� ‘’Something’s Gotta Give…’ as the 2003 film put it.
� A mathematician or economist would say, ‘the expense must go down or
the ability to pay must rise to match the expense.’
� Simple math implies that the age for collecting full benefits should rise
from 67 to 72, so that expenses more closely match workers’ ability to
pay. Under this scenario, while Americans are living 30% longer, the
‘retirement’ age would rise just 7%, still well below the increase in life
expectancy since Social Security was created.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
139
Social Security: Unless The Program Is Restructured, Cash Flow
Will Turn Negative by 2015E Owing to Aging Population
Real Social Security Annual Operating Income, 1982 – 2036E
Annual Social Security Net Cash Flow ($B)
$200
$100
$0
-$100
-$200
-$300
2015+
Permanent
Negative Cash Flow
Projection
-$400
1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012E 2017E 2022E 2027E 2032E
www.kpcb.com
Note: Data adjusted for inflation in real 2009 dollars. Includes Disability Insurance. Projection by Social Security Administration
in 8/10. Source: Social Security Administration.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 140
In Sum…
Heretofore, Social Security and Unemployment Insurance
have been effectively funded, but two significant entitlement
programs (Medicaid and Medicare) were created without
effective funding plans / programs. Only one of these
(Medicaid) is means-tested (indicating that one is eligible for
Medicaid only if he / she does not sufficient financial means).
Left unchanged, Unemployment Insurance funding should
improve as economic growth resumes, but Social Security will no
longer be self-funded within 5-10 years, and the underfunding of
Medicaid and Medicare will simply go from bad to worse.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
141
Drill Down on USA Inc.
Rising Debt Level and Interest Payments
1
2
3
Entitlement
Spending
Medicaid
(-$273B Net Loss*)
Medicare
(-$272B Net Loss* 1 )
Unemployment
Benefits
(-$115B Net Loss*)
Social Security
(-$75B Net Loss* 1 )
Rising Debt
Level & Interest
Payments
Debt Level
($9T Outstanding)
Effective Interest
Rates
(2.2%)
Debt Composition
Periodic Large
One-Time
Charges
TARP
($26B Net Profit* 2 )
Fannie Mae /
Freddie Mac
(-$41B Net Loss*)
ARRA
(-$137B Net Loss*)
www.kpcb.com
Note: *denotes F2010 net income / net loss of respective programs, data per White House OMB. 1) Medicare and Social
Security net loss excludes Trust Fund interest income. 2) TARP net loss includes proceeds from sale of warrants. TARP is
Troubled Asset Relief Program; ARRA is American Recovery & Reinvestment Act programs.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 142
Interest Payments:
3 Determinants = Debt Level + Interest Rates + Maturity
Interest
Payments
Debt
Level
Effective
Interest
Rates
Debt Level
• 62% of GDP in 2010, up 2x over 30 years
• Projected to rise to ~146% of GDP by 2030E
owing to diminishing surpluses from Social
Security and rising expenses from Medicaid and
other entitlement spending
Effective Interest Rates
• At historic low of 2.2% in 2010, vs. 30-year
average of 6.4%
• Will rise with federal funds target rate & long-term
Treasury yield as economy recovers
Maturity
• Shorter debt maturities imply less leverage to
Maturity reduce future interest payments via inflation
• Long-term debt (10+ year) only 10% of total in
2010, down from 15% in 1985
• Short-term debt (0-1 year) especially large in 2009
Source: Historical debt level / effective interest rates data per White House OMB; Debt projection per CBO; Maturity and composition per Dept. of Treasury.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
143
Drill Down on Debt Levels & Related Expenses
We begin with a simple study of current and historical debt
levels and key drivers of why debt has risen so much, then
we look at interest rates (which are low by historical
standards) and the impact they have on interest expense,
then we look at the short-term vs. long-term composition of
USA Inc.’s debt.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 144
1
Entitlement
Spending
Medicaid
(-$273B Net Loss*)
Medicare
(-$272B Net Loss* 1 )
Unemployment
Benefits
(-$115B Net Loss*)
Social Security
(-$75B Net Loss* 1 )
2
Rising Debt
Level & Interest
Payments
Debt Level
($9T Outstanding)
Effective Interest
Rates
(2.2%)
Debt Composition
3
Periodic Large
One-Time
Charges
TARP
($26B Net Profit* 2 )
Fannie Mae /
Freddie Mac
(-$41B Net Loss*)
ARRA
(-$137B Net Loss*)
Note: *denotes F2010 net income / net loss of respective programs, data per White House OMB. 1) Medicare and Social Security net loss
excludes Trust Fund interest income. 2) TARP net loss includes proceeds from sale of warrants. TARP is Troubled Asset Relief Program; ARRA
is American Recovery & Reinvestment Act programs.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 145
Debt Level: Highest (as % of GDP) Since World War II
and Rising Rapidly
USA Federal Debt Held by the Public 1 as % of GDP, 1940 – 2010
120%
100%
World War II
Public Debt As % of GDP
80%
60%
40%
2010 Public Debt = 62% of GDP
20%
0%
1940 1946 1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006
www.kpcb.com
Note: 1) For a more-detailed discussion about net debt (Federal debt held by the public) vs. gross debt, see slide 455 to 463
in Appendix. Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 146
Why Has Debt
Risen So Much?
Public Debt Up 2x Over
Past 3 Decades
www.kpcb.com
Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
147
Debt Level: Why It Has Risen
Answer Part 1: Expenses (Entitlement + One-Time Items*) Grew Faster Than GDP
USA Real Federal Expenses vs. Real GDP % Change, 1965 – 2010
% Change From 1965
1200%
1000%
800%
600%
400%
200%
Total Expenses
Entitlement Programs
Non-Defense Discretionary
Defense
Net Interest Payments
Real GDP
0%
-200%
1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
Note: *One-time items could not be shown in chart because % change from 1965 is not available. For context, one-time items totaled $377B in 2009 and
$152B in 2010 (both in 2005 constant dollars), both of which are the 3 rd largest line item after entitlement expenses and defense spending. Data adjusted
for inflation. Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 148
Debt Level: Entitlement Spending Increased 11x (1965 to 2010),
While Real GDP Grew 3x
USA Real Federal Expenses, Entitlement Spending, Real GDP % Change, 1965 – 2010
% Change From 1965
1200%
1000%
800%
600%
400%
200%
Total Expenses
Entitlement Programs
Real GDP
Entitlement
Expenses
+10.6x
Total
Expenses
+3.3x
Real GDP
+2.7x
0%
1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
www.kpcb.com
Note: Data adjusted for inflation. Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
149
Debt Level: Why It Has Risen
Answer Part 2: Revenue (Esp. Corporate Taxes) Fell Below GDP Growth
USA Real Federal Revenue vs. Real GDP % Change, 1965 – 2010
% Change From 1965
600%
500%
400%
300%
200%
100%
Individual Income Taxes
Corporate Income Taxes
Social Insurance Taxes
Other Taxes & Fees
Total Revenue
Real GDP
0%
-100%
1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
www.kpcb.com
Note: All data adjusted for inflation. Source: White House Office of Management and Budget, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 150
Debt Level: Recessions + Corporate Tax Accounting Changes
Led to Revenue Underperformance (Relative to GDP Growth)
1,200
USA Federal Receipts by Type ($B in 2005 Constant Dollars), 1965 – 2010
Individual & Corporate Income Taxes (in 2005 $B)
1,000
800
600
400
200
Individual Income Taxes
Corporate Income Taxes
Recessions
1981
Tax Cuts
1981
Accelerated Cost
Recovery System
� Lower Corporate
Taxes*
2001 / 2003
Tax Cuts
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Note: * The adoption of Accelerated Cost Recovery System allowed companies to utilize accelerated depreciation on capital investments, leading to
higher depreciation costs and lower taxable income. Source: White House Office of Management and Budget. Note that recession-related tax cuts can be
doubled edged – reducing tax revenue but enhancing GDP growth.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 151
Debt Level: In the Past, Social Security’s Surpluses Have Masked
USA Inc.’s True Borrowing Needs by $1.4T
� Social Security tax receipts exceeded outlays in every year between 1984 and 2008,
leading to a cumulative surplus of $1.4 trillion.
� These surpluses have been used to fund other parts of federal government operations
(including Medicaid, infrastructure and defense...) under the unified budget accounting
rules.
� Without these past Social Security surpluses, USA Inc. would have to have issued $1.4
trillion more debt (or 16% higher than current level of debt) to fund its operations.
Social Security Operating Income ($B)
$120
$80
$40
$0
-$40
-$80
Social Security Cumulative Real Operating Surpluses / Deficits, 1982-2010
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
www.kpcb.com
Note: Surpluses & deficits exclude Trust Fund interest income, adjusted for inflation.
Data source: Congressional Budget Office.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 152
Why Will Debt Level
Continue to Rise?
Public Debt Projected
to Rise 2x Over
Next 3 Decades
www.kpcb.com
Source: Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Budget Outlook (6/10), Alternative Fiscal Scenario (assuming a continuation
of today’s underlying fiscal policy. This scenario deviates from CBO’s baseline because it incorporates some policy changes
that are widely expected to occur and that policymakers have regularly made in the past).
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 153
Debt Level: Projected to Rise 3x Over Next 2 Decades,
per USA Inc.’s Own Estimates
USA Public Federal Debt as % of GDP, 1982 – 2030
160%
Net Federal Debt As % of GDP
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
2010 Federal Debt = 62% of GDP
2030E Federal Debt =
146% of GDP
20%
0%
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010E 2014E 2018E 2022E 2026E 2030E
Source: Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Budget Outlook (6/10), Alternative Fiscal Scenario (assuming a continuation of today’s underlying fiscal
policy. This scenario deviates from CBO’s baseline because it incorporates some policy changes that are widely expected to occur and that policymakers
have regularly made in the past).
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 154
Debt Level: Why Will It Continue to Rise?
Answer Part 1: Notional Social Security “Trust Fund” Surpluses Likely
Turning Into Deficits Owing to Aging Population
$200
Social Security Cumulative Real Operating Surpluses / Deficits, 1982-2037E
Social Security Operating Income ($B)
$0
-$200
-$400
-$600
-$800
Cumulative Surpluses
(1982-2008) Reduced
Federal Debt by
$1.4T
Projected Cumulative
Deficits (2009-2037E)
Could Increase Federal
Debt by $11.6T
-$1,000
1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012E 2017E 2022E 2027E 2032E 2037E
www.kpcb.com
Note: Surpluses & deficits exclude Trust Fund interest income, adjusted for inflation in 2009 dollars.
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
155
Debt Level: Why Will It Continue to Rise?
Answer Part 2: Notional Medicare* “Trust Fund” Surpluses Likely
Turning Into Deficits Owing to Aging Population
$100
Medicare Part A* Cumulative Real Operating Surpluses / Deficits, 1982-2037E
Medicare Part A Operating Income ($B)
$0
-$100
-$200
-$300
Cumulative Surpluses
(1982-2008) Reduced
Federal Debt by
$21B
Projected Cumulative
Deficits (2009-2037E)
Could Increase Federal
Debt by $5T
-$400
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013E 2018E 2023E 2028E 2033E
Note: Data are adjusted for inflation in 2009 dollars. *Only Medicare Part A (hospital insurance) has a trust fund (funded by payroll taxes), Part B (medical
insurance) and Part D (prescription drug benefits) are primarily funded by general tax revenue and premium / co-payments. Source: Medicare Trustees.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 156
Debt Level: Why Will It Continue to Rise?
Answer Part 3: Potential Loss on Guarantees on Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac
Originations Could Rise
$9,000
Government-Sponsored Enterprises Gross Debt Composition, 1971 – 2008
Total GSE Debt Outstanding ($B)
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Freddie Mac
RMBS*
Fannie Mae
RMBS*
Freddie Mac
Corporate Debt
Fannie Mae
Corporate Debt
Other Debt
www.kpcb.com
Note: *RMBS is residential mortgage-backed securities. Other debt includes those issued by other federal agencies such as
Federal Home Loan Banks and Student Loan Marketing Association (Sallie Mae). Source: FHFA Report to the Congress 2009.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
157
Debt Level: GSEs’ Expansion Into ‘Non-Conventional’ Mortgage Lending
Business Has Proved to Be Costly So Far
Fannie Mae Credit Losses by Type of Mortgage Product, 1Q08 – 2Q10
$8,000
Quarterly Credit Losses ($MM)
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
Other Non-Conventional
Subprime
Alt A
Interest Only
Conventional
Non-
Conventional
Mortgages =
30% of Fannie
Mae’s Total
Loan Guarantee
Balance, But
Causing 70-80%
of Losses
Owing to Lower
Loan Quality
$0
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10
www.kpcb.com
Source: Fannie Mae, Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley Research.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 158
Debt Level: Fannie Mae + Freddie Mac =
Latest Estimated Ultimate Cost to Taxpayers Varies*
Base-Case
Estimated Ultimate
Net Loss**
$389 Billion
Source
Congressional
Budget Office
(CBO)
Comments / Assumptions
Net accrued loss to be borne by taxpayers, including
net cash infusions (with implied default rate of ~5-
10%) and risk premiums associated with federal
government’s implicit guarantee on GSEs’ credit.
Bulk of the net loss ($291B) occurred prior to and
during F2009.
On a cash basis, CBO’s estimate would have been in
line with White House OMB’s estimate.
$160 Billion
White House
Office of
Management and
Budget (OMB)
Net cash outlay to be borne by Treasury Dept. (and
ultimately taxpayers), including Treasury Dept.’s cash
outlays to purchase Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac
preferred stock (with implied default rate of ~5-10%),
minus cash received from dividends.
Bulk of the net cash outlay ($112B) occurred prior to
and during F2009.
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Latest estimated cost to taxpayers varies and continues to rise. **By F2019E. Source: CBO, OMB.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
159
Debt Level: Scenario Math – What Various Default Rates Could Mean for
Taxpayer Ultimate Cash Cost of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac
Outstanding Loan Guarantees
Default Rate
Loss Severity*
Ultimate Cash Cost
to Taxpayer
Outstanding
Loan Guarantees
Default
Rate
Loss Severity*
Ultimate Cash Cost
to Taxpayer
$5 Trillion 1
(before
government
conservatorship in
9/08)
2%
$50 Billion
5% $125 Billion
10% $250 Billion
50%
15% $375 Billion
20% $500 Billion
25% $625 Billion
$160 Billion
Current CBO /
OMB Forecasts
of Ultimate Cash
Cost of Fannie
Mae / Freddie
Mac
www.kpcb.com
Note: * Loss severity is liquidation value (foreclosure auction or other means) as a % of the loan amount adjusted for any
advances and fees. Source: 1) Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 160
1
Entitlement
Spending
Medicaid
(-$273B Net Loss*)
Medicare
(-$272B Net Loss* 1 )
Unemployment
Benefits
(-$115B Net Loss*)
Social Security
(-$75B Net Loss* 1 )
2
Rising Debt
Level & Interest
Payments
Debt Level
($9T Outstanding)
Effective Interest
Rates
(2.2%)
Debt Composition
3
Periodic Large
One-Time
Charges
TARP
($26B Net Profit* 2 )
Fannie Mae /
Freddie Mac
(-$41B Net Loss*)
ARRA
(-$137B Net Loss*)
Note: *denotes F2010 net income / net loss of respective programs, data per White House OMB. 1) Medicare and Social Security net loss
excludes Trust Fund interest income. 2) TARP net loss includes proceeds from sale of warrants. TARP is Troubled Asset Relief Program; ARRA
is American Recovery & Reinvestment Act programs.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 161
Effective Interest Rates: While USA Debt Has Risen Steadily Since 1981,
Rates Have Fallen Steadily, so the Cost of Debt Has
Potentially Been Held Artificially Low
USA Net Federal Debt Outstanding & Effective Interest Rates, 1980 – 2010
$10,000
$8,000
Net Debt Outstanding
Effective Interest Rates
30-Year Avg. Effective Interest Rate
10%
8%
Net Debt Outstanding ($B)
$6,000
$4,000
6%
4%
Effective Interest Rates (%)
$2,000
2%
$0
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
0%
www.kpcb.com
Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 162
Effective Interest Rates: While USA Debt Has Risen,
Net Interest Payments Have Fallen
USA Net Federal Debt Outstanding & Net Interest Payments, 1980 – 2010
$10,000
$500
$8,000
Net Debt Outstanding
Net Interest Payments
$400
Net Debt Outstanding ($B)
$6,000
$4,000
$300
$200
Net Interest Payments ($B)
$2,000
$100
$0
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
$0
www.kpcb.com
Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
163
Effective Interest Rates: Hypothetical Exercise – If USA 2009 Cost of Debt
Was Paid at 30-Year Average Interest Rate Level of 6% vs. Current 2%,
Annual Interest Cost Would Rise 3x to $566 Billion from $196 Billion
$600
USA Actual & Hypothetical Net Interest Payments*, 1980 – 2010
Net Interest Payments ($B)
$500
$400
$300
$200
Hypothetical Net Interest Payments, Assuming
30-Year Average Effective Interest Rate of 6.25%
Actual Net Interest Payments
Would have
been $370B
higher
$100
$0
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
www.kpcb.com
Note: * Hypothetical net interest payments calculation assumes all other variables (such as GDP, revenue, spending, debt
levels, etc.) are held constant. Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 164
Effective Interest Rates: But Cost of Debt Unlikely to Continue to Decline
For Extended Period If Economy Improves
USA Federal Debt Weighted Average Yields, 1980 – 2010
14%
Weighted Average Treasury Yields (%)
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
30-Year Average Yield
7%
0%
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
www.kpcb.com
Source: US Treasury.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
165
Effective Interest Rates: If Debt Levels & Interest Rates Rise Dramatically
Beyond 2010, Net Interest Payments Could Soar…
USA Federal Net Debt Outstanding / Effective Interest Rates / Net Interest Payments, 2009 – 2016E
11-16E
2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E CAGR
Net Debt Outstanding ($B) $7,545 $9,019 $10,856 $11,881 $12,784 $13,562 $14,301 $15,064 7%
Y/Y Growth 30% 20% 20% 9% 8% 6% 5% 5%
Effective Interest Rate (%) 2.5% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 2.5% 3.1% 3.5% 3.7% --
Net Interest Payments ($B) $187 $196 $207 $242 $321 $418 $494 $562 22%
Y/Y Growth -26% 5% 5% 17% 33% 30% 18% 14%
% of Federal Tax Receipts 9 9 10 9 11 13 14 15
www.kpcb.com
Note: CAGR is compound annual growth rate. Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 166
Effective Interest Rates: If Debt Levels & Interest Rates Rise Dramatically
Beyond 2010, Net Interest Payments Could Soar
USA Net Federal Debt Outstanding & As Percent of Total Revenue, 1980 – 2016E
$600
30%
$500
Net Interest Payment ($B)
As % of Total Revenue
24%
Net Interest Payment ($B)
$400
$300
$200
$100
18%
12%
6%
As % of Total Revenue (%)
$
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013E 2016E
0%
www.kpcb.com
Note: CAGR is compound annual growth rate. Source: White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
167
1
Entitlement
Spending
Medicaid
(-$273B Net Loss*)
Medicare
(-$272B Net Loss* 1 )
Unemployment
Benefits
(-$115B Net Loss*)
Social Security
(-$75B Net Loss* 1 )
2
Rising Debt
Level & Interest
Payments
Debt Level
($9T Outstanding)
Effective Interest
Rates
(2.2%)
Debt Composition
3
Periodic Large
One-Time
Charges
TARP
($26B Net Profit* 2 )
Fannie Mae /
Freddie Mac
(-$41B Net Loss*)
ARRA
(-$137B Net Loss*)
Note: *denotes F2010 net income / net loss of respective programs, data per White House OMB. 1) Medicare and Social Security net loss
excludes Trust Fund interest income. 2) TARP net loss includes proceeds from sale of warrants. TARP is Troubled Asset Relief Program; ARRA
is American Recovery & Reinvestment Act programs.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 168
Debt Composition: Average Debt Maturity Declining Since 2000, Combined
With Declining Interest Rate, Leading to “Artificially Low” Interest Payments
USA Inc. Debt Maturity vs. Short-Term Interest Rate, 1980 – 2010
Average Treasury Securities Maturity (Years)
7
6
5
4
Average Treasury Securities Maturity
Short-Term Interest Rate
30-Year Average
Maturity
20%
15%
10%
5%
Short-Term Interest Rate (%)
3
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
0%
www.kpcb.com
Source: Dept. of Treasury.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
169
Debt Composition: Maturity – Temporary High Mix (32%) of
Short-Term Treasury Bills in 2009 Took Advantage of Historic Low Interest
Rates to Reduce Interest Payments
USA Inc. Outstanding Debt Breakdown by Type & Maturity, 2000 - 2010
% of Total Marketable Debt Outstanding
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Interest Rate (%)
TIPS
Treasury Inflation
Protected Securities
Bonds
- Long-Term (10+
Year Maturity)
Notes
- Medium-Term (2-
10 Year Maturity)
Bills
- Short-Term (0-1
Year Maturity)
Short-Term
Interest Rate (Fed
Funds Rate)
10-Year Average
Share of T-Bills
www.kpcb.com
Note: Data as of March each year; composition excludes nonmarketable securities. Source: Dept. of Treasury.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 170
Debt Composition: Foreign Investors & Governments
Hold ~46% of USA Inc. Public Debt
1989 Total Public Debt
Outstanding
$2 Trillion
2010 Total Public Debt
Outstanding
$9 Trillion
Foreign Investors &
Government
Federal Reserve
28%
18%
10%
Mutual Funds
State & Local
Governments
3%
3%
19%
46%
6%
11%
5%
6%
17%
Private Pension Funds
Depository Institutions
6%
6%
Insurance Companies
7% 10%
Other Investors
www.kpcb.com
Note: Public debt ownership excludes Government Accounts Series (such as Social Security Trust Fund) as those holdings
are intra-government and not tradable in public. Source: Dept. of Treasury, as of CQ2:10.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
171
Debt Composition: Foreign Investors & Governments Hold 46% of USA Inc.
Public Debt, Up From 4% in 1970 – How Much Higher Should It Go?
Foreign Ownership of US Treasury Securities, CQ1:1970 – CQ2:2010
Foreign Ownership of USA Inc's Debt (%)
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Top Foreign Owners, CQ2:10
China 10%
Japan 9%
UK 3%
Oil Exporters* 3%
Brazil 2%
All Other 18%
0%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Oil exporters include Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria.
Source: Dept. of Treasury, as of CQ2:10.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 172
And – You Guessed It – Here’s the Punch Line…
By USA Inc.'s Own
Forecast…
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
173
Entitlement Spending + Interest Payments Alone Should
Exceed USA Inc. Total Revenue by 2025E!
Entitlement Spending + Interest Payments vs. Revenue as % of GDP, 1980 – 2050E
Total Revenue & Entitlement + Net Interest
Payments as % of GDP
40%
30%
20%
10%
Revenue
Entitlement Spending + Net
Interest Payments
0%
1980 1990 2000 2010E 2020E 2030E 2040E 2050E
Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Long-Term Budget Outlook (6/10). Note that entitlement spending includes federal government expenditures on Social
Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Data in our chart is based on CBO’s ‘alternative fiscal scenario’ forecast, which assumes a continuation of today’s underlying
fiscal policy. Note that CBO also maintains an ‘extended-baseline’ scenario, which adheres closely to current law. The alternative fiscal scenario deviates from
CBO’s baseline because it incorporates some policy changes that are widely expected to occur (such as extending the 2001-2003 tax cuts rather than letting them
expire as scheduled by current law and adjusting physician payment rates to be in line with the Medicare economic index rather than at lower scheduled rates) and
that policymakers have regularly made in the past.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 174

CBO’s Projection from 10 Years Ago (in 1999) Showed Federal Revenue
Sufficient to Support Entitlement Spending + Interest Payments Until 2060E
– 35 Years Later than Current Projection
CBO’s Projection in the ‘1999 Long-Term Budget Outlook’ on
Entitlement Spending + Interest Payments vs. Revenue as % of GDP, 1980 – 2070E
Total Revenue & Entitlement + Net Interest
Payments as % of GDP
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Revenue
Entitlement Spending + Net Interest Payments
1980 1990 2000 2010E 2020E 2030E 2040E 2050E 2060E 2070E
www.kpcb.com
Source: Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Budget Outlook (1999).
Note that there was no alternative fiscal scenario in CBO’s forecast back then.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
175
If the Previous Two Slides…
aren’t a
wake-up call,
we don’t know
what is…
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 176
Drill Down on USA Inc. Periodic Large One-Time Charges
1
Entitlement
Spending
Medicaid
(-$273B Net Loss*)
Medicare
(-$272B Net Loss* 1 )
Unemployment
Benefits
(-$115B Net Loss*)
Social Security
(-$75B Net Loss* 1 )
2
Rising Debt
Level & Interest
Payments
Debt Level
($9T Outstanding)
Effective Interest
Rates
(2.2%)
Debt Composition
3
Periodic Large
One-Time
Charges
TARP
($26B Net Profit* 2 )
Fannie Mae /
Freddie Mac
(-$41B Net Loss*)
ARRA
(-$137B Net Loss*)
www.kpcb.com
Note: *denotes F2010 net income / net loss of respective programs, data per White House OMB. 1) Medicare and Social
Security net loss excludes Trust Fund interest income. 2) TARP net loss includes proceeds from sale of warrants. TARP is
Troubled Asset Relief Program; ARRA is American Recovery & Reinvestment Act programs.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 177
One-Time Charges: Unusually High in F2009 & F2010 with
Financial + Economic Crisis
Net One-Time Charges to USA Inc. ($B)
F2011 Net Sum of
F2008 F2009 F2010 YTD* 4 Years
Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) $14 $97 $41 -- $152
Fannie Mae -- 60 23 -- 83
Freddie Mac $14 37 18 -- 69
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)* -- $261 -$26 -$23 $213
Banks -- 134 -85 -28 21
Automakers -- 78 -6 -14 58
AIG -- 49 -- 20 69
Individual Homeowners -- 0 39 -1 38
Other Financial Institutions -- -- 22 -- 22
Consumers & Small Businesses -- -- 4 -- 4
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)** -- $40 $137 -- $177
Education -- 21 50 -- 71
Nutrition Assistance -- 5 11 -- 16
Transportation -- 4 15 -- 19
Tax Credits -- 2 33 -- 35
Energy -- 1 5 -- 6
Other -- 7 23 -- 30
Net Total One-Time Charges ($B) $14 $398 $152 -$23 $542
Note: Federal fiscal year ends in September. *TARP one-time charges include repayments & dividends; F2011 TARP data as of 2/11, per US Treasury;
F2011 YTD GSE & ARRA data not available. **ARRA one-time charges exclude funds used by entitlement programs such as Social Security / Medicare /
Medicaid / Unemployment. Source: Congressional Budget Office, Dept of Treasury.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 178
One-Time Charges: What Charges from F2008-F2010
May Look Like on Net Basis Over Next 10 Years
One-Time Charges from the ‘Financial Crisis’ are Not Created Equal – While TARP Was the
Headliner, When All’s Said & Done, TARP may be Smallest Component, by a Long Shot
Current Cost
($B, as of 2/11)
Ultimate Cash Cost
($B, by F2020E) Comments
TARP $213B <$51B 1 less 1 as banks continue to pay back their loans
and automakers / AIG seek IPOs / sales to
May fall from net $213 billion to $51 billion or
realize value of USA Inc.’s equity stake.
GSE $152 ~$160 2 (or higher) 2 as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
losses on loan guarantees stabilize and they
May grow from net $152 billion to ~$160 billion
continue to pay dividends on USA Inc.’s shares.
ARRA $177 $417
Should rise from $177 billion to $417 billion 3
based on commitments…and a payback plan
was never factored into these payments.
Note: 1) Latest Treasury estimate as of 12/10, includes net profits from banks of $16B, net costs from AIG ($5B) / Automakers ($17B) / Consumers & Housing
programs ($-46B) and other. AIG net costs excludes potential gains from selling AIG’s common shares held by the Treasury, which could turn out to be a $22B profit
for the Treasury based on 10/1/10 closing price. Including this potential gain, TARP ultimate cost to the Treasury would be $29B. 2) White House OMB estimates
ultimate cash cost of Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac at $165B while the CBO estimates the ultimate cash costs at $160B. Both estimates imply an average default rate of
5-10% on Fannie Mae + Freddie Mac’s $5T loan guarantee portfolio and a loss severity of 50%. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) estimates ultimate
costs to range from $142B to $259B. 3) Net cash costs are limited to discretionary spending items in ARRA. Source: CBO, U.S. Dept of Treasury, White House
OMB, FHFA.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 179
Recipients of $ from USA One-Time Charges (F2008-2011YTD)
Total Net 2008-2011 One-Time Charges = $542 Billion (as of 2/11)
Other
Transportation + Energy + Other
Banks
700 Banks received funds,
100 repaid so far
Automakers
11%
5% 10%
30%
Consumers
Homeowners + Consumers
& Small Businesses +
Education + Nutrition + Tax
credits
Insurers / Other
Financial Institutions
AIG + Other Financial
Institutions
17%
28%
Government-
Sponsored
Enterprises
Fannie Mae + Freddie Mac
www.kpcb.com
Source: Dept. of Treasury, as of 2/11.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 180
Drill Down on One-Time Charges
Most of USA Inc.’s recent one-time charges are directly or
indirectly related to America’s real estate bubble and
aggressive borrowing.
First we look at the drivers of the real estate bubble (we call it
‘anatomy of a real estate bubble’), then we drill down on the
past / present / future financial impact of the three types of
one-time charges and the recipients:
1) TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program)
2) GSEs (Government-Sponsored Enterprises)
2) ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act)
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
181
What created the
real estate bubble?
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 182
Real Estate Bubble: Root Causes—Government Home Ownership Push +
Declining Interest & Savings Rates + Aggressive Borrowing and Lending
Led to 10+ Years of Rising Home Ownership
70%
USA Home Ownership Rates vs. Interest Rates vs. Personal Savings Rates, 1965 - 2010
June 2004: US home ownership = 73MM
20%
U.S. Home Ownership Rate
68%
66%
64%
62%
60%
January 1993: HUD began promoting
broader home ownership. US home
ownership = 62MM
16%
12%
8%
4%
U.S. Interest Rate & Personal Savings Rate
58%
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
0%
www.kpcb.com
U.S. Home Ownership Rate
U.S. Interest Rate
U.S. Home Ownership Rate 30-year (1965-1995) Trendline
U.S. Personal Savings Rate Note: HUD is Dept. of Housing & Urban Development. Interest rate is the overnight
federal funds rate. Data as of CQ1:10. Savings rate is amount of saving divided by income after taxes.
Data source: Federal Reserve, DOC Bureau of Economic Analysis.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 183
Real Estate Bubble: Home Prices Rose Dramatically (7% Annually) for
10 Years – Up ~2x Over 10-Year Period Ending 2007
USA Real Home Price & Building Cost Indexes, % Change 1965 – 2008
% Change from 1965 Level
80%
60%
40%
20%
USA Real Home Price Index
USA Real Building Cost Index
0%
-20%
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
www.kpcb.com
Note: Real home prices & building costs are inflation-adjusted. Source: Robert Shiller, Yale University.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 184
Banks & Other Mortgage Originators Helped Fuel Housing Bubble as They
Originated Lower Quality Mortgages –
Alt-A & Subprime Origination Volumes Up 374% & 94% in 2006 vs. 2003
USA Residential Mortgage Origination by Product Type, 2001 – 2010
Total Residential Mortgage Origination ($B)
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Conventional
Jumbo
Subprime
Alt-A
Home Equity
FHA / VA
Total Non-Conventional as % of Total
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Subprime + Home Equity + Alt-A as % of Total
www.kpcb.com
Source: Inside Mortgage Finance.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
185
Real Estate Bubble: Investors Helped Fuel It, Too, as They Reached For Yield
Without Questioning AAA Ratings of A Subprime-Backed Investments
Investors picked up 25-35bps over U.S. Treasuries with comparable maturity, typically levered
10:1 and generated 2.5-3.5% yield, meaningful against an 8% annual yield target
Illustrative AAA-Rated Subprime RMBS Yield Spread* with 10x Leverage, 2/05 – 2/07
4.0%
Subprime RMBS Yield Spread vs. 7-Year Swap Rate
3.6%
3.2%
2.8%
2.4%
2.0%
2/05 4/05 6/05 8/05 10/05 12/05 2/06 4/06 6/06 8/06 10/06 12/06
Note: Illustrative AAA-rated subprime RMBS spread represented as Mezzanine CDO spread vs. 7-year swap rate.
Source: Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley Research.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 186
Investors Struggle with Today’s Low ~4% Risk Free Rate
• Pension funds & other investors look for ~8% annual returns
in order to meet promised payouts.
• The challenge is far greater than before given:
• Rising obligations relative to income
• Lower interest rates
• Promises (e.g., pension, healthcare) made during an 8%
interest rate environment are much harder to meet when the
risk free rate has fallen from 8% to 3.6%. 1
• The choice is either to reduce obligations…
or
…Invest in riskier assets.
www.kpcb.com
Note: 10-year Treasury coupon rate as of 2/18/2010. Source: Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley Research.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
187
1
Entitlement
Spending
Medicaid
(-$273B Net Loss*)
Medicare
(-$272B Net Loss* 1 )
Unemployment
Benefits
(-$115B Net Loss*)
Social Security
(-$75B Net Loss* 1 )
2
Rising Debt
Level & Interest
Payments
Debt Level
($9T Outstanding)
Effective Interest
Rates
(2.2%)
Debt Composition
3
Periodic Large
One-Time
Charges
TARP
($26B Net Profit* 2 )
Fannie Mae /
Freddie Mac
(-$41B Net Loss*)
ARRA
(-$137B Net Loss*)
Note: *denotes F2010 net income / net loss of respective programs, data per White House OMB. 1) Medicare and Social Security net loss
excludes Trust Fund interest income. 2) TARP net loss includes proceeds from sale of warrants. TARP is Troubled Asset Relief Program; ARRA
is American Recovery & Reinvestment Act programs.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 188
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP):
Recipient of 38% of Net Government (Taxpayer) Funding*
� In TARP, the financial rescue program (created in October, 2008),
USA Inc. purchased assets and equity from financial institutions to
provide the capital and liquidity needed during the 2008 financial
crisis (which followed the real estate bubble).
In 2009, TARP recipients were broadened to include automakers, an
insurance company (AIG), individual homeowners, small & mediumsized
businesses and other non-bank financial institutions.
To date, USA Inc. loaned these institutions $464 billion and received
$250 billion in repayment and warrant proceeds for a net outstanding
loan balance of $214 billion.
www.kpcb.com
Note: *As of 2/11, numbers are rounded. Source: Dept. of Treasury.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
189
TARP Distribution –
Equally Distributed Among Financial Institutions / Automakers / Insurer / Individuals as of 2/11
Outstanding Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) Balance of $214B 1 as of 2/11
Insurance
Company
AIG 2
$69B
Homeowners
$38B
Individuals
Auto
Companies
Automakers
$58B
Banks
$23B
Consumers &
Small Businesses 4
$4B
Toxic Asset Holders 3
$22B
Financial
Institutions
SunTrust Banks - $5B
Regions Financial - $3.5B
….
Note: 1) #s are rounded, includes warrant proceeds of $10B from banks. 2) Total principal + accrued interest on AIG preferred stock purchased by U.S. Treasury prior
to 1/11 = $49B, on 1/14/11, AIG drew an additional $20B TARP funding to buy out Federal Reserve’s investment. 3) Including banks and other financial institutions;
done via Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP) under which Treasury provides equity and debt financing to newly formed public-private investment funds (PPIFs)
established by fund managers with investors for the purpose of purchasing legacy securities from financial institutions. These securities are commercial mortgagebacked
securities and non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities. 4) Consumers and small & medium-sized businesses that need loans would benefit from
the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), through which the Fed provides loans to help support the issuance of asset-backed securities (which would in
turn fund a substantial portion of the consumer credit and small business loans). Source: Dept. of Treasury, AIG, data as of 2/14/10.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 190
TARP Repayments and Outstanding Loans: Most Large Banks Have Repaid
$222 Billion Paid Back 1 , $23 Billion Outstanding
TARP Repayments: Top 8 TARP Outstanding: Top 8
Citigroup*
Principal
SunTrust
Bank of
America
Wells Fargo
Warrant &
Other
Proceeds
Regions
Financial
Key Corp.
JPMorgan
CIT Group**
Goldman
Sachs
Morgan
Stanley
PNC
Financial
Marshall &
Ilsley
Zions
Synovus
US Bank
Popular
www.kpcb.com
$- $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60
$- $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60
Note: 1) Includes warrant proceeds from banks; *Citigroup’s repayments include $2.3B repayment on the Asset Guarantee
program and $6.9B additional proceeds from selling Treasury’s ownership. **Treasury’s preferred stock investment in CIT Group
was lost as a result of CIT’s bankruptcy filing. Source: Dept of Treasury, data as of 2/11.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 191
TARP Repayments And Outstanding Loans:
Most Non-Bank TARP Recipients Have Not Repaid
$27 Billion Paid Back, $171 Billion Outstanding
TARP Repayments
TARP Outstanding
AIG
General
Motors
General Motors
PPIP*
GMAC
Chrysler
Chrysler
FHA*
TALF*
Chrysler
Financial
GM Suppliers
Chrysler Suppliers
$- $20 $40 $60
www.kpcb.com
$- $20 $40 $60
Note: * PPIP is Public-Private Investment Program, FHA represents the FHA Short Refinance Program, TALF is Term Asset-
Backed Securities Loan Facility.
Source: Dept of Treasury, data as of 1/11.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 192
1
Entitlement
Spending
Medicaid
(-$273B Net Loss*)
Medicare
(-$272B Net Loss* 1 )
Unemployment
Benefits
(-$115B Net Loss*)
Social Security
(-$75B Net Loss* 1 )
2
Rising Debt
Level & Interest
Payments
Debt Level
($9T Outstanding)
Effective Interest
Rates
(2.2%)
Debt Composition
3
Periodic Large
One-Time
Charges
TARP
($26B Net Profit* 2 )
Fannie Mae /
Freddie Mac
(-$41B Net Loss*)
ARRA
(-$137B Net Loss*)
Note: *denotes F2010 net income / net loss of respective programs, data per White House OMB. 1) Medicare and Social Security net loss
excludes Trust Fund interest income. 2) TARP net loss includes proceeds from sale of warrants. TARP is Troubled Asset Relief Program; ARRA
is American Recovery & Reinvestment Act programs.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 193
Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs):
Recipients of 28% of Net Government (Taxpayer) Funding
� GSEs Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac extended their guarantees on residential
mortgages from conventional loans into Alt-A, interest-only and subprime
loans.
� While technically not part of the federal government, Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac
have enjoyed an implicit government guarantee on their debt and RMBS
securities as investors believed (correctly, as it turned out) that the federal
government would support these entities if they failed. As a result, GSEs’ longterm
debt securities receive AAA/Aaa ratings from all rating agencies and are
classified by financial markets as “agency securities” with interest rates above
USA Treasuries but below AAA corporate debts.
� Post placing Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac into a government conservatorship,
USA Inc. has so far invested $152B 1 into these two GSEs with an estimated $8-
13B 2 more likely over the next 10 years, given the ongoing weakness in housing
market and the poor underwriting by Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac.
www.kpcb.com
Source: 1) U.S. Dept of Treasury, as of 12/10, 2) White House OMB / U.S. Congressional Budget Office.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 194
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac:
A Brief History of Government-Sponsored Enterprises
Fannie Mae established in
1938 to provide liquidity to
the primary and secondary
mortgage markets
Freddie Mac established in
1970 after the Emergency
Home Finance Act to
provide further liquidity to
the mortgage markets
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
placed into conservatorship
at a time when they
guaranteed 57% of the $12
trillion USA mortgage market
1938 1968 1970 1988 2008
Fannie Mae became a publicly traded company in
9/68, in part to reduce rising government debt
levels from the Vietnam War by taking Fannie Mae
debt off USA Inc.’s balance sheet
Freddie Mac became a
publicly traded company in
12/88 with an initial market
cap of $3 billion
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac – What do they do?
They are insurance and investment companies. Both buy residential and
multifamily mortgages which conform to their underwriting standards from banks
and other originators. They either hold them in their portfolios or package them
into residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). These securities, which
carry Fannie and Freddie’s guarantee on them, are then sold to investors
(banks, insurance companies, bond funds, etc.).
www.kpcb.com
Source: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Los Angeles Times.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
195
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac:
What Went Wrong?
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Public Market Capitalizations, 1990 – 2010
Market Cap ($B)
$100
$80
$60
$40
9/99 – Fannie Mae expanded mortgage
availability to low-income borrowers
under pressure from White House
1/93 – HUD began
promoting broader
home ownership
7/05 – Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac agreed to restrictions on
growth of their retained
portfolios
9/08 – Fannie
Mae and Freddie
Mac placed into
conservatorship
$20
$0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Freddie Mac
Fannie Mae
www.kpcb.com
Note: HUD is Department of Housing and Urban Development. Source: FactSet.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 196
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac: Accounted for Majority of Total Residential
Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) Issuance Since 1990s
2,000
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Issuance
and as % of Total Market Volume, 1998-2010
80%
Mortgate-backed Security Volume (Bn)
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
72%
64%
56%
48%
40%
32%
24%
16%
8%
As % of Total MBS Marlet Volume
0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
0%
Fannie Mae RMBS Freddie Mac RMBS Fannie + Freddie RMBS as % Total RMBS
www.kpcb.com
Sources: 1988-2006 data from Calculated Risk; Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac data from FHFA Annual Report to the
Congress 2009, 2009 / 2010 data per EMBS and Hybrid Weekly.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
197
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac:
Latest Estimated Ultimate Cost to Taxpayers Varies*
Base-Case
Estimated Ultimate
Net Loss**
$389 Billion
Source
Congressional
Budget Office
(CBO)
Comments / Assumptions
Net accrued loss to be borne by taxpayers, including
net cash infusions (with implied default rate of ~5-
10%) and risk premiums associated with federal
government’s implicit guarantee on GSEs’ credit.
Bulk of the net loss ($291B) occurred prior to and
during F2009.
On a cash basis, CBO’s estimate would have been in
line with White House OMB’s estimate.
$160 Billion
White House
Office of
Management and
Budget (OMB)
Net cash outlay to be borne by Treasury Dept. (and
ultimately taxpayers), including Treasury Dept.’s cash
outlays to purchase Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac
preferred stock (with implied default rate of ~5-10%),
minus cash received from dividends.
Bulk of the net cash outlay ($112B) occurred prior to
and during F2009.
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Latest estimated cost to taxpayers varies and continues to rise. **By F2019E. Source: CBO, OMB.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 198
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac: Scenario Math – What Various Default Rates
Could Mean for Taxpayer Ultimate Cash Cost
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac
Outstanding Loan Guarantees
Default Rate
Loss Severity*
Ultimate Cash Cost
to Taxpayer
Outstanding
Loan Guarantees
Default
Rate
Loss Severity*
Ultimate Cash Cost
to Taxpayer
$5 Trillion 1
(before
government
conservatorship in
9/08)
2%
$50 Billion
5% $125 Billion
10% $250 Billion
50%
15% $375 Billion
20% $500 Billion
25% $625 Billion
$160 Billion
Current CBO /
OMB Forecasts
of Ultimate Cash
Cost of Fannie
Mae / Freddie
Mac
www.kpcb.com
Note: * Loss severity is liquidation value (foreclosure auction or other means) as a % of the loan amount adjusted for any
advances and fees. Source: 1) Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
199
1
Entitlement
Spending
Medicaid
(-$273B Net Loss*)
Medicare
(-$272B Net Loss* 1 )
Unemployment
Benefits
(-$115B Net Loss*)
Social Security
(-$75B Net Loss* 1 )
2
Rising Debt
Level & Interest
Payments
Debt Level
($9T Outstanding)
Effective Interest
Rates
(2.2%)
Debt Composition
3
Periodic Large
One-Time
Charges
TARP
($26B Net Profit* 2 )
Fannie Mae /
Freddie Mac
(-$41B Net Loss*)
ARRA
(-$137B Net Loss*)
Note: *denotes F2010 net income / net loss of respective programs, data per White House OMB. 1) Medicare and Social Security net loss
excludes Trust Fund interest income. 2) TARP net loss includes proceeds from sale of warrants. TARP is Troubled Asset Relief Program; ARRA
is American Recovery & Reinvestment Act programs.
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 200
America Recovery & Reinvestment Act (ARRA):
Recipient of 34% of Net Government (Taxpayer) Funding
� In ARRA (the economic stimulus program created in February,
2009), USA Inc. aims to create jobs and promote investment and
consumer spending by cutting taxes, expanding unemployment
benefits, and increasing spending in education, healthcare,
infrastructure, and energy.
These measures are projected to increase federal spending by $500+
billion while reducing federal tax receipts by $275 billion over 10 years
($177 billion of which occurred in F2009 and F2010).
www.kpcb.com
Source: White House Office of Management & Budget.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
201
ARRA*: Negative Effect on Discretionary Budgets Should Peak in F2010,
But Spending Commitments through F2019E Total $417 Billion
ARRA* Discretionary Items’ Net Effect on Federal Budgets, F2009 – F2019E
ARRA Discretionary Items' Net Effect on Federal Budget ($B)
F2009 F2011E F2013E F2015E F2017E F2019E
0
20
40
60
Education
Nutrition Assistance
80
100
120
140
Transportation
Energy
Tax Credits
Other
www.kpcb.com
Note: *ARRA is American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. US federal fiscal year ends in September. Net effects on
budgets are limited to discretionary spending items in ARRA. Source: Congressional Budget Office.
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 202
ARRA: Spending Examples
� Education – Used ARRA funding and saved education jobs, such as
teachers, principals, librarians, and counselors
� Tax Credits – Provided higher Earned Income Tax Credits
� Transportation – Repaired roads and bridges
� Energy – Provided additional funding for renewable energy and energy
efficiency projects
� Nutrition Assistance – Provided additional assistance for low-income
families to purchase food
� Other – Funding for various programs related to homeland security and
law enforcement…
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown
203
Longer-term taxpayer
impact of GSE Loans +
ARRA + TARP
varies…regardless,
it is material
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 204
What ‘One-Time Charges’ from F2008-F2010
May Look Like on Net Basis Over Next 10 Years
One-Time Charges from the ‘Financial Crisis’ are Not Created Equal – While TARP Was the
Headliner, When All’s Said & Done, TARP may be Smallest Component, by a Long Shot
Current Cost
($B, as of 2/11)
Ultimate Cash Cost
($B, by F2020E)
Comments
TARP $214B <$51B 1 less 1 as banks continue to pay back their loans
and automakers / AIG seek IPOs / sales to
May fall from net $214 billion to $51 billion or
realize value of USA Inc.’s equity stake.
GSE $152 ~$160 2 (or higher) 2 as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
losses on loan guarantees stabilize and they
May grow from net $152 billion to ~$160 billion
continue to pay dividends on USA Inc.’s shares.
ARRA $177 $417
Should rise from $177 billion to $417 billion 3
based on commitments…and a payback plan
was never factored into these payments.
Note: 1) Latest Treasury estimate as of 12/10, includes net profits from banks of $16B, net costs from AIG ($5B) / Automakers ($17B) / Consumers & Housing
programs ($-46B) and other. AIG net costs excludes potential gains from selling AIG’s common shares held by the Treasury, which could turn out to be a $22B profit
for the Treasury based on 10/1/10 closing price. Including this potential gain, TARP ultimate cost to the Treasury would be $29B. 2) White House OMB estimates
ultimate cash cost of Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac at $165B while the CBO estimates the ultimate cash costs at $160B. Both estimates imply an average default rate of
5-10% on Fannie Mae + Freddie Mac’s $5T loan guarantee portfolio and a loss severity of 50%. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) estimates ultimate
costs to range from $142B to $259B. 3) Net cash costs are limited to discretionary spending items in ARRA. Source: CBO, U.S. Dept of Treasury, White House
OMB, FHFA.
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USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 208
Balance Sheet Drilldown
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209
Balance Sheet: USA Inc. Federal Debt + Unfunded Entitlement
Liabilities (Social Security + Medicare…) Exceed Stated Assets
… … Comments
F1996 F2003 F2009 F2010
ASSETS ($B)
Cash & Other Monetary Assets $193 $120 $393 $429
Accounts / Loans / Taxes Receivable 206 278 626 783
Inventories 232 241 285 286
Property, Plant & Equipment 969 658 784 829
TARP + GSE Investments -- -- 304 254
Other assets 124 97 275 303
Total Assets ($B) 1,724 1,394 2,668 2,884
Y/Y Growth 33% 40% 35% 8%
LIABILITIES ($B)
Accounts Payable $162 $62 $73 $73
Accrued Payroll & Benefits -- 100 161 164
Federal Debt 3,730 3,945 7,583 9,060
Federal Employee & Veteran Benefits Payab 1,652 3,880 5,284 5,720
Liability to GSEs -- -- 92 360
Other Liabilities 530 512 932 979
Unfunded Net Entitlement Liabilities 5,415 20,825 45,878 30,857
Y/Y Growth -- 16% 7% -33%
NPV of Unfunded Social Security $3,600 $4,927 $7,677 $7,947
NPV of Unfunded Medicare 1,815 15,819 38,107 22,813
NPV of Unfunded Other Benefits 79 94 97
Total Liabilities ($B) 11,488 29,324 60,002 47,214
Y/Y Growth -- 14% 9% -21%
NET WORTH ($B) -$9,764 -$27,930 -$57,334 -$44,330
Y/Y Growth -- 13% 8% -23%
$200B cash balance owing to
temporary Fed market stabilization
initiatives
Includes $145B TARP direct loans &
equity investment + $109B in GSEs
Growth primarily owing to TARP
capitalization + Fed liquidity program
Significant rise in debt owing to ongoing
budget deficits + stimulus
spending
Federal employee & veteran benefits
rose 3x owing to scheduled annual
pay raises + rising benefit costs
Unfunded entitlement liabilities up 6x
between F1996 and F2010.
Medicare NPV down sharply Y/Y
owing to new assumptions from the
Healthcare reform legislation
Significant increase from rising levels
of debt + unfunded future benefits
-$44T of net worth for USA Inc. more
than tripled, from -$10T in 1996
Note: USA Inc.’s balance sheet presented here does not include the financial value of the Government’s sovereign powers to tax, regulate commerce, and set monetary
policy. It also excludes its control over nonoperational resources, including national and natural resources, for which the Government is a steward. Total liabilities include the
net present value (NPV) of unfunded entitlement liabilities like Social Security / Medicare / other payments, which the Treasury Dept. considers ‘off-balance sheet’
responsibilities. U.S. government fiscal year ends in September. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Financial Report on the U.S. Government, 1996 – 2010.
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USA Inc. | Balance Sheet Drilldown 210
USA Inc. Net Worth:
-$44 Trillion in Perspective
There are doubts about the accuracy of such a big negative number, especially when the value
of USA Inc.’s assets is so hard to calculate. The value of natural resources, the power to tax,
the ability to print the world’s reserve currency, the human capital in our educational system –
these and other assets would clearly reduce that number, if they could be accurately
calculated.
Given the differences between government and corporate accounting, what matters is not the
exact number, but the trend – which is clearly moving in the wrong direction. Liabilities have
been growing faster than assets. Just to put that $57 trillion into context…
-$44 Trillion = $142,999 per Person in USA 1
$370,961 per Household 1
20x USA Inc. Annual Revenue 2
3.8x S&P500 Total Market Capitalization 3
3.0x USA Annual GDP 4
0.9x Global Stock Market Capitalization 5
0.8x Total USA Household Wealth 6
Source: 1) Population & household data as of 1/10, per Census Bureau estimates; 2) annual federal income in F2010, per Dept. of Treasury; 3) as of 1/11, per S&P;
4) GDP is 2010 nominal figure, per BEA; 5) as of 1/10, per World Federation of Exchanges; 6) as of CQ3:10, calculated as total net worth of households &
nonprofit organizations, per Federal Reserve (12/10 data).
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USA Inc. | Balance Sheet Drilldown 211
We Believe Citizens Should Consider These ‘Off-Balance Sheet’ Liabilities
For A ‘More Complete’ Understanding of USA Inc.’s Finances
� “…the Government’s responsibilities to make future
payments for social insurance and certain other programs
are not shown as liabilities according to Federal accounting
standards…These programmatic commitments remain
Federal responsibilities and as currently structured will have
a significant claim on budgetary resources in the
future…The reader needs to understand these
responsibilities to get a more complete understanding of the
Government’s finances.”
� Department of the Treasury,
� “2004 Financial Report of the United States Government”
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Balance Sheet Drilldown 212
Balance Sheet: USA Inc. Total Liabilities*: $47 Trillion in F2010,
or $395,093 per Household Owing Largely to Entitlement Spending
USA Inc. Total Assets / Liabilities / Networth ($T)
$10
$
-$10
-$20
-$30
-$40
-$50
-$60
-$70
F1996
Total Assets / Liabilities / Net Worth of USA Federal Government,
Using Corporate GAAP Accounting, F1996-F2010
Unfunded Entitlement Benefits
Current Liabilities
Total Assets
Net Worth
F1997
F1998
F1999
F2000
F2001
F2002
F2003
Medicare liabilities down sharply owing to slower
healthcare cost growth assumptions associated
with 2010 Healthcare reform
F2004
F2005
F2006
F2007
F2008
F2009
F2010
Note: USA Inc.’s balance sheet presented here does not include the financial value of the Government’s sovereign powers to tax, regulate commerce, and set
monetary policy. It also excludes its control over nonoperational resources, including national and natural resources, for which the Government is a steward. Total
liabilities include the net present value (NPV) of unfunded entitlement liabilities like Social Security / Medicare / other payments, which the Treasury Dept. considers
‘off-balance sheet’ responsibilities. U.S. government fiscal year ends in September. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Financial Report on the U.S.
Government, 1996 – 2009.
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USA Inc. | Balance Sheet Drilldown 213
Balance Sheet: USA Inc. Total Liabilities: $47 Trillion in F2010
Up 5x From 1996, Driven by Medicare Liabilities
Total Liabilities of USA Federal Government, Using Corporate GAAP
Accounting, F1996-F2009
$
F1996 F1998 F2000 F2002 F2004 F2006 F2008 F2010
$10
USA Inc. Total Liabilities ($T)
$20
$30
$40
$50
Net Medicare (Part D) Liabilities
Net Medicare (Part A & B) Liabilities
Net Social Security Liabilities
Federal Employee & Veteran Benefits Payable
$60
$70
Federal Debt
All Other
Medicare liabilities down sharply owing to slower
healthcare cost growth assumptions associated
with the 2010 Healthcare reform
Note: USA Inc.’s balance sheet presented here does not include the financial value of the Government’s sovereign powers to tax, regulate commerce, and set
monetary policy. It also excludes its control over nonoperational resources, including national and natural resources, for which the Government is a steward. Total
liabilities include the net present value (NPV) of unfunded entitlement liabilities like Social Security / Medicare / other payments, which the Treasury Dept. considers
‘off-balance sheet’ responsibilities. U.S. government fiscal year ends in September. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Financial Report on the U.S
.Government, 1996 – 2009.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Balance Sheet Drilldown 214

Important Caveats on F2010 Medicare Liability Improvement
�
�
�
Medicare Part A and Part B unfunded liability improved to -$16 trillion in F2010, up 47% from -$31 trillion in
F2009, per the Board of Medicare Trustees.
The improvement was driven primarily by downward revisions of future cost growth assumptions following
enactment of healthcare reform in 2010.
However, Medicare’s Chief Actuary Richard Foster noted that “while the Patient Protection and Affordable
Care Act, as amended, makes important changes to the Medicare program and substantially improves its
financial outlook, there is a strong likelihood that certain of these changes will not be viable in the
long range…Without major changes in health care delivery systems, the prices paid by Medicare for health
services [as scheduled by current law] are very likely to fall increasingly short of the costs of providing these
services…Congress would have to intervene to prevent the withdrawal of providers from the Medicare
market and the severe problems with beneficiary access to care that would result. Overriding the productivity
adjustments, as Congress has done repeatedly in the case of physician payment rates, would lead to far
higher costs for Medicare in the long range than those projected under current law…For these
reasons, the financial projections shown [here] for Medicare do not represent a reasonable
expectation for actual program operations in either the short range (as a result of the unsustainable
reductions in physician payment rates) or the long range (because of the strong likelihood that the statutory
reductions in price updates for most categories of Medicare provider services will not be viable).”
www.kpcb.com
Note: Emphasis added. Source: Statement of Actuarial Opinion, 2010 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal
Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds.
USA Inc. | Balance Sheet Drilldown 215
Balance Sheet: Even Excluding Unfunded Entitlement Benefits,
USA Inc.’s Net Worth = -$13 Trillion in F2010, Owing to $9 Trillion of Debt
Total Assets / Liabilities / Net Worth of USA Federal Government,
Using Government GAAP Accounting, F1996-F2010
USA Inc. Total Assets / Liabilities / Networth ($T)
$5
$
-$5
-$10
-$15
-$20
Liabilities (ex. Unfunded Entitlement Benefits)
Total Assets
Net Worth (ex. Unfunded Entitlement Benefits)
F1996
F1997
F1998
F1999
F2000
F2001
F2002
F2003
F2004
F2005
F2006
F2007
F2008
F2009
F2010
Note: USA Inc.’s balance sheet presented here does not include the financial value of the Government’s sovereign powers to tax, regulate commerce, and set monetary
policy. It also excludes its control over nonoperational resources, including national and natural resources, for which the Government is a steward. Total liabilities exclude
the net present value (NPV) of unfunded entitlement liabilities like Social Security / Medicare / other payments, which the Treasury Dept. considers ‘off-balance sheet’
responsibilities. U.S. government fiscal year ends in September. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Financial Report on the U.S. Government, 1996 – 2010.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Balance Sheet Drilldown 216

Balance Sheet: Observations of Last Ten Years
� Unfunded promise of future entitlement spending grew 6x to -$31
trillion, owing to rapidly rising healthcare cost + new Medicare Part D
program + aging population in the medium-future.
� Federal net debt outstanding more than doubled to $9 trillion on the
back of chronic budget deficits, two major recessions in 2001 and 2008,
and growing entitlement spending.
� Federal employee & veteran benefits outstanding also more than
doubled, to $5.7 trillion, thanks to rising healthcare costs and ongoing
war on terror.
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USA Inc. | Balance Sheet Drilldown 220
What Might a Turnaround Expert—
Empowered to Improve USA Inc.’s
Financials—Consider?
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USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
221
First, Examine USA Inc. Key Drivers of Revenue & Expenses…
� USA Inc.'s Revenue = Highly Correlated (83%) with GDP Growth*
� 90% of USA Inc.'s 2010 revenue derived from taxing individual and corporate
income, which depends on GDP growth and changes to tax rates / composition.
� USA Inc.'s Expenses = Less (73%) Correlated with GDP Growth*
� Entitlement Programs = 57% of USA Inc.'s expenses in 2010
� driven by government policy + demographic changes
� Defense Programs = 20% of expenses
� driven by external threat levels and policy
� Net Interest Payments = 6% of expenses
� driven by net debt level + interest rates + composition of debt maturity
Observation: while revenue is highly correlated with GDP growth, expenses
are less so.
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Historical inflation-adjusted correlation between GDP and revenue / expense Y/Y growth rates from 1940 to 2010, GDP / revenue
adjusted using GDP deflator; expenses adjusted using White House OMB’s composite outlay deflator. Nominal revenue / GDP correlation
over the same period is 84%; expense / GDP correlation is 71%. Data source: White House Office of Management & Budget, CBO.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 222
Then, Aim to Determine What ‘Normal’ Is…
� We review 40-year income statement patterns and focus on
‘average’ / ‘normal’ levels of USA Inc.’s revenue drivers
(primarily related to taxes) and expense drivers (by category)
as a percent of revenue, as a starting point to help define
‘average’ / ‘normal.’
� Established businesses typically determine their expense
levels based on their revenue trend / outlook.
� In a perfect world, the government (and its citizens) would
continually review the multiple variables in the income
statement of USA Inc. (in a bipartisan way) and would
work hard to foster compromise, in order to optimize
revenue and expenses for the long term AND the short term.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
223
Considering USA Inc.
‘Normal’ / Average Financial Metrics / Ratios For…
1) 1) Revenue Growth
2) 2) Revenue Drivers as Percent of Revenue
3) 3) Expense Growth by Category
4) 4) Category Expenses as Percent of Expenses
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USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 224
Revenue Growth: Average Federal Revenue (Driven by Taxes)
In-Line With GDP Growth
1965 – 2005 USA Real Federal Income Growth by Category vs. Real GDP Growth
Revenue Growth
1965 Y/Y 2005 Y/Y 40-yr CAGR
'05 vs 40-yr
Variance
Comments
Individual Income Taxes 11% 11% 3% 8%
Corporate Income Taxes 15 43 2 41
Social Insurance Taxes 12 5 5 1
Other Taxes & Fees -5 1 1 0
Individual & corporate income
taxes are cyclical; 2005 Y/Y
growth were significantly
affected by economic recovery
post 2001 recession.
Social insurance taxes & other
fees are less cyclical.
Social insurance taxes grew
significantly faster than GDP.
Total Federal Revenue 9% 11% 3% 8%
Real GDP 7% 3% 3% 0%
www.kpcb.com
“Normal”
Note: All data are inflation adjusted using GDP price index from BEA; ’05 vs. 40-yr variance is rounded.
Data source: White House Office of Management & Budget.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 225
Revenue Growth: Observations from Previous Slide
� We chose a 40-year period from 1965 to 2005 to examine ‘normal’ levels of
revenue and expenses. We did not choose the most recent 40-year period (1969
to 2009) as USA was in deep recession in 2008 / 2009 and underwent significant
tax policy fluctuations in 1968 /1969 and subsequently many metrics (like individual
income and corporate profit) varied significantly from ‘normal’ levels.
� Total USA Inc. revenue (collected via taxes) has grown at an average 3%
annual rate, in-line with 40-year GDP growth rate. Corporate taxes have – on
average – grown at 2% annually over 40 years. Social insurance taxes (for
Social Security and Medicare) have grown at an average 5% annual rate,
above the 3% GDP growth.
Questions:
1) How crucial is the role played by lower relative tax rates – especially for
corporations – in stimulating job and GDP growth and helping American maintain /
gain / constrain loss of global competitive advantage?
� 2) Should social insurance tax growth be more closely aligned with GDP growth?
www.kpcb.com
Note: All data are inflation adjusted using GDP price index from BEA; ’05 vs. 40-yr variance is rounded.
Data source: White House Office of Management & Budget.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 226
Revenue Drivers as Percent of Total Revenue: Average Federal Revenue
Are Skewed to Social Insurance (Entitlement) Taxes and
Away from Corporate Income Taxes
1965 – 2005 USA Real Federal Income Mix by Category
Share of Total Revenue
40-yr
1965 2005 Average
'05 vs 40-yr
Variance
Individual Income Taxes 42% 43% 46% -3%
Corporate Income Taxes 22 13 12 1
Social Insurance Taxes 19 37 33 4
Other Taxes & Fees 17 7 10 -3
Total Federal Revenue 100% 100% 100% 0%
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“Normal”
Note: All data are inflation adjusted using GDP price index from BEA; ’05 vs. 40-yr variance is rounded.
Data source: White House Office of Management & Budget.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
227
Revenue Drivers as Percent of Revenue:
Observations from Previous Slide
� Social Insurance taxes (for entitlement programs) have risen materially
to 37% of revenue (vs. 33% 40-year average), and have risen
aggressively from 19% in 1965, owing to introduction of Medicare in
1965 and the 1983 reform of social security taxes.
� Questions:
1) What level of social insurance / entitlement ‘tax’ can USA Inc. support on
an on-going basis? Rising from 19% of revenue in 1965 to 33% of revenue
in 2005 – of which 75% was spent on healthcare – takes its toll on other
areas of spending / growth. There are serious tradeoffs - every dollar that
goes to entitlement programs is not spent on education, infrastructure, and
defense.
� 2) Why have corporate income taxes fallen to 13% of revenue in 2009 from
22% in 1965 aside from recession? How crucial has this been to maintain
global competitive advantage and stimulating American job and GDP
growth?
www.kpcb.com
Note: All data are inflation adjusted using GDP price index from BEA; ’05 vs. 40-yr variance is rounded.
Data source: White House Office of Management & Budget.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 228
Expense Growth by Category: Entitlement Spending Growing Much Faster than
Other Expenses and 2% Higher than GDP Growth
1965 – 2005 USA Real Federal Expenses Growth by Category vs. Real GDP Growth
Expenses Growth
1965 Y/Y 2005 Y/Y 40-yr CAGR
'05 vs. 40-yr
Variance
Comments
Entitlement Expenses 12% 3% 6% -3%
Defense 12 6 1 4
Non-Defense Discretionary* 10 6 2 4
Entitlement expenses grew 2
percentage points faster than
GDP and overall expenses
Defense spending grew 2
percentage points below overall
expenses
Net Interest Payments 7 12 3 8
Total Federal Expenses 11% 5% 3% 2%
Real GDP 7% 3% 3% 0%
Normal
www.kpcb.com
Note: All data are inflation adjusted using GDP price index from BEA; ’05 vs. 40-yr variance is rounded. *Non-defense discretionary
spending includes education, infrastructure, agriculture, housing, etc. Data source: White House Office of Management & Budget.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
229
Expense Growth by Category:
Observations from Previous Slide
� While GDP and USA Inc. tax revenue have grown at a 3% annual rate
for 40 years, entitlement spending has grown 5%, net interest
payments have risen 3%, and defense plus non-defense discretionary
spending (including education, infrastructure, law enforcement and
judiciary) have risen by 1%. These different growth rates have become
even more pronounced in recent years.
� Questions:
1) Isn’t it time for a re-set and acknowledgment of trade-offs? Should taxes,
non-defense discretionary spending, and defense spending grow in line with
GDP over time? Should entitlement spending be restructured to be more
efficient and supportable by the ongoing financial dynamics of USA, Inc. and
also grow in line with or below GDP?
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Note: All data are inflation adjusted using GDP price index from BEA; ’05 vs. 40-yr variance is rounded.
Data source: White House Office of Management & Budget.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 230
Expense Drivers as Percent of Total Expenses:
Entitlement + One-Time Items Are Crowding Out Other Federal Spending
1965 – 2005 USA Real Federal Expenses Mix by Category
Share of Total Expenses
40-yr
1965 2005 Average
'05 vs. 40-yr
Variance
Entitlement Expenses 21% 51% 42% 9%
Defense 43 20 24 -4
Non-Defense Discretionary* 29 22 23 -1
Net Interest Payments 7 7 11 -4
Total Federal Expenses 100% 100% 100% 0%
Normal
www.kpcb.com
Note: All data are inflation adjusted using GDP price index from BEA; ’05 vs. 40-yr variance is rounded. *Non-defense discretionary
spending includes education, infrastructure, agriculture, housing, etc. Data source: White House Office of Management & Budget.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
231
Category Expenses as Percent of Expenses:
Observations from Previous Slide
� Entitlement spending has risen to 51% of total spending, higher than 40-
year average of 42% (and much higher than the 21% in 1965), defense
spending has fallen to 20% from 24% average, non-defense discretionary
spending (including education, infrastructure, energy, law enforcement
and veteran services) has fallen to 22% from 23%, and net interest
payments have fallen to 7% from 11%, despite higher debt (largely because
of declining interest rates). These trends have become more pronounced
in recent years.
� Questions:
1) Should entitlement spending account for 51% (and rising) share of total USA
Inc.’s spending, while other key areas (such as education, infrastructure, energy,
law enforcement…) account for only 22% (and falling) of spending?
www.kpcb.com
Note: All data are inflation adjusted using GDP price index from BEA; ’05 vs. 40-yr variance is rounded.
Data source: White House Office of Management & Budget.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 232
Bottom Line, as Data in This Presentation Indicate…
� USA Inc.’s expenses far exceed revenue – and government
projections imply this trend will get worse, not better.
�
In addition - while not addressed in depth in this presentation - USA Inc.
(while still a global powerhouse), at the margin, is losing competitive
advantage to many other countries.
� Instead of ignoring the problems, we simply ask the question…
How would a financial / turnaround expert look at USA Inc.’s financials,
business model, strategic plans, efficiency and aim to drive the
‘business’ to break-even (or a modest profit) over the next
5-10 years?
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Matching Expenses & Revenue:
Imperatives & Constraints
There are many reasons to make changes
� USA Inc. is losing money, and forecasts imply it will continue to lose money.
� Net debt levels (62% in F2010) are expected to surpass 90% threshold* – above
which real GDP growth could slow by more than one percentage point – by 2021E.
� Spending (primarily related to entitlement programs) is at unsustainable levels
based on USA Inc.’s ability to fund the spending (without increasing debt levels).
� Americans rank ‘reducing America’s debt’ as one of country’s top priorities,
according to a national survey by Peter G. Peterson Foundation in 11/09.
� We are now in the midst of a major generational baton-passing (from the Baby
Boomers to Generation X) which requires preparation for policy change.
� Foreigners own 46% (and rising) of USA Inc.’s debt, per Treasury Department –
Are they going to keep funding USA Inc.’s spending?
Note: *Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff observed from 3,700 historical annual data points from 44 countries that the relationship between government debt
and real GDP growth is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average
growth falls considerably more. We note that while Reinhart and Rogoff’s observations are based on ‘gross debt’ data, in the U.S., debt held by the public is closer
to the European countries’ definition of government gross debt. For more information, see Reinhart and Rogoff, “Growth in a Time of Debt,” 1/10.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 234

Matching Expenses & Revenue:
Imperatives & Constraints
There are many constraints to making changes
� ~90 million citizens (29% of Americans) 1 have grown accustomed to entitlement
programs - 47MM on Medicaid, 45MM on Medicare, and 51MM on Social
Security, and many of them vote.
� Politicians depend on re-election campaigns, which can create conflicts,
especially given that only 12% of the population are willing to cut Social Security
and Medicare benefits, per Pew survey in 2/11.
� Low personal savings rates (near 6% of disposable income in CQ2:10), high
unemployment (near 10%) and economic uncertainty, which can limit ability to
make radical change.
� 14 million healthcare-related workers 2 have grown accustomed to relatively high
healthcare spending.
www.kpcb.com
Note: 1) as of 2008, excludes double counting of beneficiaries of multiple entitlement programs; 2) as of 2008, per BEA. Source:
Social Security Administration, Dept. of Health & Human Services, BEA.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
235
And Then There’s the Constraint of
USA Inc.’s Weak Economy
� [The] typical error most countries make coming out of a
financial crisis is they shift too quickly to premature restraint.
You saw that in the United States in the 30s, you saw that in
Japan in the 90s. It is very important for us to avoid that
mistake. If the government does nothing going forward, then
the impact of policy in Washington will shift from supporting
economic growth to hurting economic growth.
� Timothy Geithner, Secretary of US Treasury
� The Wall Street Journal, September 12, 2010
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 236
�High-Level Thoughts on How to
Turn Around USA Inc.’s Financial Outlook
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
237
Negative Cash Flow =
USA Inc.'s Fundamental Financial Problem
� Negative cash flow implies that USA Inc. can't afford the
services it is providing to 'customers' (citizens).
� USA Inc. needs to re-prioritize its services and offer
them in a more cost-effective way to stop losing (and
borrowing) money.
� The financial data imply that USA Inc.'s operations must
be restructured.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 238
The First Step to a 'Turnaround' is Acknowledging
There is a Problem
� A turnaround situation is first recognized when there is serious concern
or dissatisfaction with the firm's [organization's] performance, results,
and/or near-term forecasts of [financial] performance and results.
�
- Richard Sloma, The Turnaround Manager's Handbook
� If your organization is in trouble, be honest. Make it absolutely clear to
everyone in the company that survival [long-term viability] depends on
cost management.
�
- Jon Meliones, “Saving Money, Saving Lives,” Harvard Business Review on Turnarounds
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
239
How Might a 'Turnaround Expert' Look at an Organization that
Needs to be 'Turned Around?'
� The recovery of a [challenged] company [or country]…depends on the
implementation of an appropriate rescue plan or turnaround prescription.
Characteristics of the appropriate remedy are that it must: 1) address the
fundamental problems; 2) tackle the underlying causes (rather than the
symptoms) and 3) be broad and deep enough in scope to resolve all the
key issues.
�
- Stuart Slatter, David Lovett, Laura Barlow, Leading Corporate Turnaround
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 240
Aim to Answer Questions Like These About USA Inc.…
Strategy / Financial Model
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
Which countries (or states) have ‘best practices’ (based on productivity and outcomes) in key areas of
operations (like healthcare, retirement plans, welfare, defense, education, infrastructure) – which of
these best practices can / should be implemented by USA Inc.?
What is the organization trying to solve for - what is USA Inc.'s mission? / Who are USA Inc.'s
customers?
Is USA Inc. providing its customers an optimized mix of services, based, in part, on ability to fund the
services?
Are there ‘business lines’ that USA Inc. should exit / scale back / expand?
Why is USA Inc. spending more money than it brings in (and borrowing more money) – what are the
checks and balances?
What do USA Inc.'s financials tell us about the health of the business?
Should USA Inc. consider a capital budget separated from the operating budget to ensure sufficient
levels of investment in education, technology and infrastructure?
What are the best attributes / biggest problems of USA Inc.'s business?
Does USA Inc. have a path to profitability (or break-even)?
How should the government improve transparency in long-term budgeting and projections? How can
USA Inc. engage the public in this process?
www.kpcb.com
Source: KPCB and Alvarez & Marsal Public Sector Services, LLC.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
241
…Aim to Answer Questions Like These About USA Inc….
People / Organizational Structure
� Has management effectively articulated a sound mission to its employees and constituents
- is USA Inc. properly organized to effectively achieve its mission?
� Does the organization have the right people, in the right places, at the right time?
� Does the business have a best-in-class leadership team and are they empowered to make
change?
� Are employees motivated / empowered / accountable for maximum performance?
� Are employees properly trained and compensated?
� Has the organization 'run the numbers' and effectively quantified the things that are
quantifiable?
� Do leading performance measures exist that support proactive management?
� How do you change the culture to be one that is steeped with focus on costs savings and
operating efficiency?
www.kpcb.com
Source: KPCB and Alvarez & Marsal Public Sector Services, LLC.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 242
…Aim to Answer Questions Like These About USA Inc.
Productivity / Operations
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
How does USA Inc. measure performance and progress – are tools in place to measure success / failure?
Should USA Inc. empower an independent / 3rd party auditor with expertise in government operations
around the world AND corporate turnarounds to conduct a broad-ranging audit of USA Inc.’s operations to
measure efficiency and productivity of each business lines?
Does USA Inc. have tight management and financial controls?
What is the best way to measure and improve individual program performance? Can Congress, the
administration and the agencies agree on common metrics?
Are there operations that should be centralized (like procurement, human resources, employee payroll and
benefits) and decentralized?
Are there operations that USA Inc. can outsource to local private companies to improve efficiency and
reduce costs?
Where should USA Inc. increase and or decrease investment?
Is USA Inc. investing for the future in a responsible way?
Should USA Inc. drive public / private partnership in infrastructure investment with collective ‘skin in the
game?’
Is the organization leveraging technology to improve productivity and connect with customers and suppliers?
How can USA Inc. improve business process related to time, cost and quality?
Does USA Inc. own assets it doesn't need that it can sell at attractive prices?
www.kpcb.com
Source: KPCB and Alvarez & Marsal Public Sector Services, LLC.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 243
Three Principles for a USA Inc. ‘Turnaround’
from Louis Gerstner
�
Do not impose "across-the-board" cost reductions
�
This is a simple and tempting remedy for an organization in fiscal trouble. But it is almost always
unproductive. A truly effective organization needs incremental investments in programs that drive
innovation and higher productivity. Moreover, across-the-board cuts are almost guaranteed to reduce
morale, promote short-sighted choices, and encourage accounting gimmicks that send people looking for
loopholes instead of creative solutions.
�
Focus on programs, not costs
�
The greatest productivity gains come from asking questions such as: What things are we doing now that
we do not need as much in the future? Can we eliminate them? Reduce their size? Provide them in a
totally restructured fashion?
�
Allow no exceptions
�
To drive a truly effective restructuring program, everything must be on the table. There can be no sacred
cows—no part of the organization that is exempt from scrutiny. Every unit of the organization may not
face a cut, but every unit needs to be rethought.
www.kpcb.com
Source: Louis V. Gerstner Jr. “Don’t Just Cut Government, Reinvent It,” Opinion in The Wall Street Journal, 2/1/2011.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 244
Financial Experts Tend to ‘Assume What Can Go Wrong,
Will Go Wrong,’ and Usually Manage Expenses in that Way
�
In projecting scenarios, financial experts would note that USA Inc.’s revenue and expenses are highly
correlated to economic changes – for example, a 0.1 percentage point slowdown in real GDP annual
growth rate could worsen USA Inc.’s F2011-F2020E budget deficit by $288B, or 5% owing to lower tax
revenue and higher welfare spending.
F2011-F2020E Impact on USA Inc.’s
Key
Economic
Variables
CBO Base-Case
Assumption
What if…
Revenue
($B / % of Base-
Case)
Spending
($B / % of Base-
Case)
Deficit
($B / % of Base-
Case)
Real GDP
Y/Y Growth
Rate
2.1% F2011E
4.4% F2012-14E
2.4% F2015-20E
Real GDP growth
rates are 0.1
percentage point
lower per year
-$247B
(-1%)
+$41B
(--%)
-$288B
(-5%)
Interest
Rates
4.6% on 3-month T-
bills
5.5% on 10-year T-
notes
Interest rates are 1
percentage point
higher
+$94B
(+0.3%)
+$1,214B
(+3%)
-$1,120B
(-19%)
Inflation 1.7%
Inflation is 1
percentage point
higher
+$2,475B
(+7%)
+$3,191B
(+7%)
-$715B
(-12%)
www.kpcb.com
Source: CBO, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020,” 1/10.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
245
Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results –
Japan’s Economic Miracle From 1960 to 1990 Rapidly Deteriorated
Into the ‘Lost Decades’ of 1990’s & 2000’s
Japan Real GDP Annual Growth Rates, 1960 – 2010
Real GDP Annual Growth Rates (%)
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Inflection Point –
Bursting of Real Estate
Bubble in 1991
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Average Annual Real GDP Growth, Japan vs. USA, 1960’s – 2000’s
1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s
Japan 10% 5% 4% 1.5% 0.7%
USA 4% 3% 3% 4% 2%
www.kpcb.com
Source: World Bank, IMF.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 246
Unfunded Entitlement (Medicare + Social Security) + Underfunded
Entitlement Expenditures (Medicaid) =
Among Largest Long-Term Liabilities on USA Inc.'s Balance Sheet
USA Balance Sheet Liabilities Composition, F2010
Unfunded
Medicare
Medicaid*
$35.3T
All
Other
Federal
Employee
Benefits
Veteran
Benefits
Federal
Debt
Unfunded
Social
Security
$22.8T
$1.6T
$2.1T
$3.7T $9.1T $7.9T
www.kpcb.com
Note: Medicaid funding is appropriated by Congress (from general tax revenue) on an as-needed basis every year, therefore,
there is no need to maintain a contingency reserve, and, unlike Medicare, the “financial status” of the program is not in question
from an actuarial perspective. Here we estimated the net present value of future Medicaid spending through 2085E, assuming a
3% discount rate. Data source: Dept. of Treasury, Dept. of Health & Human Services Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
247
USA Inc.’s Financial Disconnect
� The country faces a fundamental disconnect between the
services the people expect the government to provide,
particularly in the form of benefits for older Americans, and
the tax revenues that people are willing to send to the
government to finance those services. That fundamental
disconnect will have to be addressed in some way if the
budget is to be placed on a sustainable course.
� - Douglas Elmendorf, Director of U.S. Congressional Budget Office, 11/10/2009
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 248
An Observation from Ben Bernanke,
Current Chairman of the Federal Reserve
� A famous economist once said anything that can’t go on
forever will eventually stop, and this [government liabilities
from entitlement programs] will stop, but it might stop in a
very unpleasant way in terms of sharp cuts, a financial crisis,
high interest rates that stop growth, continued borrowing
from abroad. So, clearly we need to get control of this over
the medium term, and specifically we’re going to have to
look at entitlements because that’s a very big part of the
obligations of the federal government going forward.
� -- Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve
� Testimony before House Budget Committee, June 9, 2010
www.kpcb.com
Note: Emphasis added.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
249
Bad News: USA Inc.’s Entitlement Programs are Inflation Indexed,
Thus Potential Inflation – Which Would Reduce General Consumer Purchasing
Power – Would Not Reduce Entitlement Liabilities
Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid Spending (All Indexed to Inflation) as % Total
Federal Spending 1970-2020E
60%
As Percentage of Total Outlays (%)
50%
40%
30%
20%
Social Security Medicare Medicaid
50%
10%
0%
1970 1978 1986 1994 2002 2010E 2018E
www.kpcb.com
Data sources: The Budget and Economic Outlook, CBO 6/10.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 250
Good News: While ‘Unfunded’ Liabilities Have Helped Bankrupt Companies,
USA Inc.'s Unfunded Liabilities are Not Legal Contracts
� Medicare / Social Security – While beneficiaries have a legal
entitlement to receive benefits as set forth under the Social Security Act,
Congress has the legal authority to change the levels of benefits
and/or the conditions under which they are paid. Congress’s
authority to modify provisions of the Social Security program was
affirmed in the 1960 Supreme Court decision in Flemming v. Nestor,
wherein the Court held that an individual does not have an accrued
“property right” in Social Security benefits. The Court has made clear in
subsequent decisions that the payment of Social Security taxes conveys
no contractual rights to Social Security benefits.
� Medicaid – Benefit levels & eligibility are determined jointly by Federal
and State governments. Federal funding is met through an appropriation
by Congress (and can be adjusted annually).
www.kpcb.com
Source: Congressional Research Service, Social Security Reform: Legal Analysis of Social Security Benefits Entitlement Issues.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
251
What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
1
2
Focus on
Expenses
Focus on
Revenues
Reform
Entitlement
Programs
Drive Sustainable
Economic
Growth
Focus on
Operating
Efficiency
Change Tax
Policies
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 252
Focus on Expenses:
Reform Entitlement Programs + Focus on Operating Efficiency
1
Focus on
Expenses
Restructure Social Security
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid
Reform
Entitlement
Programs
Focus on
Operating
Efficiency
Review Federal Wages & Benefits
Review Government Pension Plan Characteristics
& Compare with Private Sector Plans
Review Role of Unions
Review Government Cost Structure &
Consider Reducing Federal Headcount
Determine if There are Non-Core ‘Business Lines’
That Can Be Centralized / Locally Out-Sourced
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
253
For Each of the Major Problems, We Highlight:
1) Mathematical Illustrations and 2) Policy Options
� Mathematical Illustrations
� Here we simply calculate how big a revenue increase and/or expense
decrease each major entitlement program needs to reach financial breakeven.
� These calculations are merely mechanical illustrations and are not meant to
portray realistic solutions.
� Policy Options
� We do not take a view on preferred policy options.
� We present policy options from our healthcare experts + 3 rd party
organizations (such as the Congressional Budget Office and National
Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform) in an easy-to-understand
format to raise awareness and illustrate the financial impact of policy
decisions.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 254
1
Focus on
Expenses
Restructure Social Security
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid
Reform
Entitlement
Programs
Focus on
Operating
Efficiency
Review Federal Wages & Benefits
Review Government Pension Plan Characteristics
& Compare with Private Sector Plans
Review Role of Unions
Review Government Cost Structure &
Consider Reducing Federal Headcount
Determine if There are Non-Core ‘Business Lines’
That Can Be Centralized / Locally Out-Sourced
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
255
Restructure Social Security: Variables To Make the Program
Financially Break-Even for the Long-Term
� Mathematical Illustrations* Slide 257–259
� 1) Retirement age – increase it to 73, from 67? or
� 2) Social Security benefits – decrease them by 12%? or
� 3) Social Security tax rate – increase it by 2 percentage points?
� Policy Options Slide 261–267
� 1) Combination of some / all mathematical illustrations above? and/or
� 2) Consider / implement CBO’s various policy options on Social Security’s tax
rates / taxable payroll / initial benefit formulas / cost-of-living adjustment… (July
2010)**? and/or
� 3) Consider / implement National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and
Reform’s policy proposals (November 2010)***?
www.kpcb.com
Note: *For mathematical illustrations, we simply calculate how big a revenue increase AND / OR expense decrease each major
entitlement program needs to reach financial break-even. These calculations are merely mechanical illustrations and are not meant
to portray realistic solutions. **See: CBO, “Social Security Options 2010.”
***See: National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, CoChairs’ Proposal, 11.10.10 Draft Document.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 256
Restructure Social Security: Mathematical Illustration #1 –
Increase Retirement Age From 67 to 73
Increase Retirement Age
80
70
67
+9%
73
Full Retirement Age (Years)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Current
Proposed
Note: For mathematical illustrations, we simply calculate how big a revenue increase AND / OR expense decrease each major entitlement program needs to
reach financial break-even. These calculations are merely mechanical illustrations and are not meant to portray realistic solutions.
Note: Increase full retirement age to 73 will reduce average life expectancy at retirement to the same level as when Social Security was introduced in the
late 1930s. Source: Melissa M. Favreault and Richard W. Johnson, The Urban Institute, “Raising Social Security’s Retirement Age,” 7/10.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 257
Restructure Social Security: Mathematical Illustration #2 –
Reduce Social Security Expenses (Benefits) By 12%
Reduce Social Security Benefits by 12%, Immediately & Permanently
Average Annual Social Security Payments per
Beneficiary ($)
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
$13,010
-12%
$11,489
2009 2010&Beyond
Note: For mathematical illustrations, we simply calculate how big a revenue increase AND / OR expense decrease each major entitlement program
needs to reach financial break-even. These calculations are merely mechanical illustrations and are not meant to portray realistic solutions.
Source: Social Security Administration forecast in “The 2010 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance
and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds,” 8/10.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 258

Restructure Social Security: Mathematical Illustration #3 –
Increase Social Security Tax Rate From 12.4% to 14.2%
Increase Social Security Tax Rate by 1.92 Percentage Points, Immediately & Permanently
16
14.2%
Payroll Tax Rate (%)
12
8
4
12.4%
+1.92
Percentage
Points
0
2009 2010&Beyond
Note: For mathematical illustrations, we simply calculate how big a revenue increase AND / OR expense decrease each major entitlement program needs to
reach financial break-even. These calculations are merely mechanical illustrations and are not meant to portray realistic solutions.
Note: 1.92% is the estimated actuarial deficit for Social Security Trust Fund over a 75-year period from 2010 to 2085.
Source: Social Security Administration forecast in “The 2010 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and
Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds,” 8/10.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 259
Good News: Mathematical Illustrations to Fix Social Security’s
Financial Problems Do Not Seem Drastic
In fact, when Social Security was nearing bankruptcy in 1983, a
combination of moderate reforms led to 25 consecutive years of
operating surpluses.
� Highlights of 1983 Social Security Reform
� 1) Raised full retirement age to 67 by 2027 (from 65)*
� 2) Reduced annual benefits by 5% (via a 6-month delay in cost-of-living
adjustment in 1983 & subsequent changes in benefit formulas and tax
schemes) .
� 3) Raised Social Security tax rates by 2.3% (via an advancement in
scheduled tax increase).
� 4) Made Social Security benefits (up to 50%) taxable income.
www.kpcb.com
Note: *For people born in 1937 or earlier, full retirement age (with 100% Social Security benefit) remained at 65. For people
born after 1960, full retirement age was raised to 67. For people born between 1937 and 1960, the full retirement age
progressively increases from 65 to 67. Source: Social Security Administration archive.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 260
Restructure Social Security: Policy Options #1 –
Combining Raising Retirement Age + Reducing Benefits + Raising Tax Rates
� Consider:
� 1) Increase retirement age by 0-9% and/or
� 2) Reduce social security benefits by 0-12%? and/or
� 3) Increase social security tax rate from 12.4% to 14.2%? and/or
� 4) Combination of some / all of the above & more?
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
261
Restructure Social Security: Policy Options From the Congressional Budget
Office (CBO) to Reduce Social Security Future Deficits By
1) Changing Tax Codes 1
Policy Options
Future Deficit
Reduction 2 (%)
2% gradually over a 20-year period 100%
Increase Payroll Tax
Rate by …
3% gradually over a 60-year period 83
1% in 2012 50
No limit, without Increasing benefits 150%
Raise the Taxable
Earnings Limit 3 to …
No limit 100
$250,000, without Increasing benefits 83
90% of earnings 33
Impose 4% Tax on
Earnings Above …
$106,800, without Increasing benefits 50%
$250,000, without Increasing benefits 17
Note: 1) Benefits are adjusted as taxation is changed, unless specified otherwise 2) As % of the estimated present value of Social Security trust fund
cumulative deficit in future 75 years. 3) Currently at $106,800
Source: CBO, “Social Security Options 2010.”
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 262
Policy Options
Restructure Social Security: CBO’s Policy Options to
Reduce Social Security Future Deficits By
2) Changing Benefit Formula
Future Deficit
Reduction (%)
To Index Initial Benefits to Prices Rather Than Earnings 167 %
Reduce Primary
Insurance Amount 1
Factors ...
By ~33% for top 2 tiers of earnings 3 117
By 15% for all tiers of earnings 83
By 0.5% every year for all tiers of earnings 67
By ~33% for the top tier of earnings 17
Earnings in AIME 2 + Bend Points in PIA 1 to price 100%
Bend Points in PIA 1 formula to price 83
Index …
Earnings in AIME 2 formula to price 33
Initial benefits to changes in life expectancy 33
Lower Initial
Benefits 4 for ..
The top 70% of earners 83%
The top 50% of earners 67
Note: 1) Primary Insurance Amount (PIA): the benefit a person would receive if he/she elects to begin receiving retirement benefits at his/her normal
retirement age 2) Average Indexed Monthly Earnings (AIME): an average of monthly income received by a beneficiary during their work life 3) Currently
there are 3 tiers of earnings in calculation of PIA – top tier = 15% of monthly earnings over $4,586; tier 2 = 32% of monthly earnings between $761 and
$4,586; tier 3 = 90% of monthly earnings below $761 4) Benefits for newly qualified individuals. Source: CBO, “Social Security Options 2010.”
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 263
Restructure Social Security: CBO’s Policy Solutions to
Reduce Social Security Future Deficits By
3) Raising Retirement Age / Lower Cost-of-Living Adjustment
Policy Options
Future Deficit
Reduction (%)
To 70 50%
Adjust Full Retirement
Age
Adjust Cost-of-living
Adjustment 1
Index to life expectancy 33
To 68 17
Reduce It by 0.5 Percentage Points 50%
Base It on the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers 33
www.kpcb.com
Notes: 1) Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA): increases of Social Security’s general benefit based on cost of living, as
currently measured by CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
Source: CBO, “Social Security Options 2010.”
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 264
Restructure Social Security: Policy Options From Report of the
National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform
Policy Options
Gradually reduce future benefit payments to high earners while
increasing them for low earners by 2050
Gradually increase taxable maximum to 90% of covered earnings
by 2050
Apply refined inflation measure (chained-CPI) to cost-of-living
index
Future Social Security
Deficit Reduction 1
37%
35%
26%
Gradually increase retirement ages to 68 by 2050 / 69 by 2075 21%
Other 2 --
Total Future Social Security Deficit Reduction 116% 3
Note: 1) As % of the estimated present value of Social Security trust fund cumulative deficit in future 75 years. 2) Other measures include boosting benefit to
oldest old retirees and covering newly hired state and local workers after 2020. 3) total deficit reduction does not equal to the sum of individual reductions
owing to policy interplay. Source: National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, “The Moment of Truth: Report of the National Commission on
Fiscal Responsibility and Reform,” 12/1/10.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 265
Restructure Social Security: Declining USA Household Savings Rate Creates
Challenge to Reducing Benefits as Americans are Under-Saving,
Thus Limiting Financial Cushion
Personal Savings Rate, 1965 – 2009
12%
9%
1965 – 1985 Average
10%
Personal Savings Rate (%)
8%
6%
4%
2%
3%
2000s Average
0%
1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
www.kpcb.com
Note: Personal savings rate is calculated as the amount of savings divided by disposable income (income after taxes).
Source: BEA.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 266
Restructure Social Security: Especially High Unemployment Levels Also
Create Challenge to Reducing Benefits
25%
USA Unemployment Rate, 1928 – 2010 YTD
20%
Unemployment Rate (%)
15%
10%
1948-2010 Average
Unemployment Rate
5.7%
5%
0%
1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
www.kpcb.com
Source: BLS, 2010 data as of 8/10.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
267
1
Focus on
Expenses
Restructure Social Security
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid
Reform
Entitlement
Programs
Focus on
Operating
Efficiency
Review Federal Wages & Benefits
Review Government Pension Plan Characteristics
& Compare with Private Sector Plans
Review Role of Unions
Review Government Cost Structure &
Consider Reducing Federal Headcount
Determine if There are Non-Core ‘Business Lines’
That Can Be Centralized / Locally Out-Sourced
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 268
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid:
Observations About America’s Healthcare System
� 1) High Expenses – however measured, the costs are high:
a) total dollars; b) share of GDP relative to other countries;
c) cost relative to ability to pay (government, business, or
individual), and
2) Inefficiencies – both the data and the insights of doctors,
nurses, patients, and healthcare professionals identify
opportunities for more efficient communication, data sharing
and cost saving.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
269
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Mathematical Challenge Related to
Government Healthcare Programs Facing USA Inc. per CBO Forecasts
Medicare & Medicaid Have Been Crowding Out Spending for Other Federal
Programs and are Projected to Exceed All Federal Revenue by 2080E
Federal Revenue & Medicare / Medicaid Spending as % of GDP, 1965 – 2080E
Federal Revenue & Medicare / Medicaid Spending as % of
GDP
www.kpcb.com
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Federal Revenue as % of GDP
(forecast based on historical trend line)
Federal Spending on
Medicare & Medicaid as
% of GDP
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015E 2025E 2035E 2045E 2055E 2065E 2075E
Source: CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook alternative fiscal scenario, 6/10.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 270
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Variables in Restructuring Medicare &
Medicaid to Reduce Material Impact on USA Inc.’s Expenses
� Mathematical Illustrations* Slide 273–274
� 1) Medicare benefits – reduce them by 53% (or cap them)? or
� 2) Medicare tax rate – increase it by 4 percentage points?
� Policy Options Slide 275–328
� 1) Combination of mathematical illustrations – reduce benefits and/or increase
taxes? and/or
� 2) Isolate and address the drivers of medical cost inflation? and
� 3) Improve efficiency / productivity of healthcare system? and
4) Reduce services for some Medicaid beneficiaries? and
� 5) Consider / implement CBO’s 26 policy options that could reduce annual
budget deficit by up to 38%?** and/or
� 6) Consider / Implement National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and
Reform’s medium- and long-term policy options***
Note: *Each mathematical illustration would bring Medicare Part A into long-term (75-year) actuarial balance. There is no mathematical illustration for
Medicaid or Medicare Part B & D as there’s no ‘dedicated’ funding.
**See: CBO, “Budget Options, Volume 1: Health Care,” 12/2008.
***See: National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, “Co-Chairs’ Proposal,” 11/10/10.
www.kpcb.com
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Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Mathematical Illustrations*
� Mathematical Illustrations*
� 1) Medicare benefits – reduce / cap them?
� or
� 2) Medicare tax rate – increase it?
Note: *For mathematical illustrations, we simply calculate how big a revenue increase AND / OR expense decrease each major entitlement program needs
to reach financial break-even. These calculations are merely mechanical illustrations and are not meant to portray realistic solutions.
www.kpcb.com
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Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Mathematical Illustration #1 –
Reduce Medicare Benefits* By 53%
Sizing the problem:
It would take massive (53%) benefit cuts to address the shortfall of Medicare*
funding
$6,000
$5,000
$5,179
-53%
Average Annual Medicare*
Payments per Beneficiary ($)
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$2,434
$0
2009 2010&Beyond
Note: For mathematical illustrations, we simply calculate how big a revenue increase AND / OR expense decrease each major entitlement program needs to reach
financial break-even. These calculations are merely mechanical illustrations and are not meant to portray realistic solutions.
Source: Dept. of Health & Human Services forecast in “2009 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary
Medical Insurance Trust Funds,” 5/09. *Note that data presented here are limited to Medicare Part A (Hospital Insurance) Trust Fund. Medicare Part B (Medical
Insurance) and Part D (Prescription Drug Benefits) are primarily funded via insurance premiums and general tax revenue transfers. Note also that data presented
here are estimates prior to PPACA (2009 healthcare reform).
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 273
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Mathematical Illustration #2 –
Increase Medicare Tax Rate From 2.9% to 6.8%
Sizing the problem:
It would take massive (3.9 percentage points) payroll tax hikes on individual and
businesses to address the Medicare* funding shortfall
Payroll Tax Rate (%)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
2.9%
+3.9
Percentage
Points
6.8%
1
0
2009 2010&Beyond
Note: For mathematical illustrations, we simply calculate how big a revenue increase AND / OR expense decrease each major entitlement program needs to reach
financial break-even. These calculations are merely mechanical illustrations and are not meant to portray realistic solutions.
Source: Dept. of Health & Human Services forecast in “2009 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary
Medical Insurance Trust Funds,” 5/09. *Note that data presented here are limited to Medicare Part A (Hospital Insurance) Trust Fund. Medicare Part B (Medical
Insurance) and Part D (Prescription Drug Benefits) are primarily funded via insurance premiums and general tax revenue transfers. Note also that data presented
here are estimates prior to PPACA (2009 healthcare reform).
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 274

Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Policy Options
� Policy Options
� 1) Combination of mathematical solutions – reduce benefits and / or increase
taxes? and/or
� 2) Isolate and address the drivers of rising healthcare costs? and
� 3) Improve efficiency / productivity of healthcare system? and
4) Reduce services for some Medicaid beneficiaries? and
� 5) Consider / implement CBO’s 26 policy options that could reduce annual
budget deficit by up to 38%? and/or
� 6) Consider / Implement National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and
Reform’s medium- and long-term policy options?
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
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Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Policy Option #1
� Combination of mathematical solutions –
reduce benefits and/or increase taxes?
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 276
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Combination of Reducing Benefits
(Including Covered Lives) & / or Raising Taxes
� Consider:
� 1) Reduce Medicare benefits by 53%? and/or
� 2) Increase Medicare tax rate from 2.9% to 6.8%? and/or
� 3) Some combination of all / some the above
� However you look at it, this math is draconian. A 53% cut in
Medicare benefits and / or more than doubling taxes are unrealistic.
The situation for Medicaid is even worse, as Medicaid has no
dedicated funding source.
� Neither Medicare nor Medicaid has yet fully faced up to the crisis and
reform that Social Security experienced in the early 1980s.
www.kpcb.com
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Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Policy Option #2
� Isolate and address the drivers
of rising healthcare costs
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 278
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Isolate and Address the Key Drivers
of Rising Healthcare Costs
USA Total Healthcare Spending Has Risen Faster than Peers’ (France, UK and Japan)*
Total Healthcare Spending as % of GDP
1970 2007
7% 16%
5% 11%
5% 8%
5% 8%
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Ranked by total healthcare spending in 2007; 1970 comparable data not available for Germany because of reunification.
Source: OECD, U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, Kaiser Family Foundation.
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Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Incentives Support Healthcare Cost Growth
• Consumers demand healthcare services with less regard
for the full economic impact as they pay only a fraction of
the true cost out of pocket.
• Healthcare service providers are generally rewarded for
pushing more services through the system, largely with
relatively less regard for cost effectiveness.
Bottom line = Powerful forces encourage spending
related to social / economic / legal issues throughout
the healthcare system.
www.kpcb.com
Source: Doug Simpson, Morgan Stanley Healthcare Research.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 280
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Social + Economic + Legal Factors
Drive Incentives to Spend
1) Social – Growing + aging population (with related
disproportionate spending on end-of-life care) and unhealthy
lifestyles.
2) Economic – Healthcare service providers have financial
incentives to perform more services and drive revenue while
consumers often have little incentive to manage incremental
cost.
3) Legal - Rising overhead from defensive medicine (to avoid
lawsuits) and from regulatory compliance costs.
www.kpcb.com
Source: Morgan Stanley Healthcare Research.
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Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Social Forces that Push Up
Healthcare Spending
� 1) Growing and Aging Population
� 2) Unhealthy Lifestyles
� 3) Possible Solutions
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 282
� 1) Growing and Aging Population
� 2) Unhealthy Lifestyles
� 3) Possible Solutions
www.kpcb.com
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Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Social Factors—
USA is Aging…13% of Americans Over 65 Years Old, Up from 5% in 1930
Older Population (65+) as Percent of Total Population, 1930 / 1970 / 2010E
Total Population
310MM
Total Population
203MM
13%
Total Population
123MM
Age 65+
5%
10%
1930 1970 2010E
# of Elderly
6MM
# of Elderly
20MM
# of Elderly
40MM
www.kpcb.com
Source: US Census Bureau.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 284
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Social Factors—
Older People Spend 2x More per Year on Healthcare than Younger Americans
Share of Population vs. Healthcare Spending by Age Group, 2004
Population & Healthcare Spending % Share of Total
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
25%
13%
$2,650
63%
53%
$4,511
$14,797
34%
12%
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
Annual Per Capita Healthcare Spending ($)
0-18 19-64 65+
Share of Population
Share of Healthcare Spending
Annual Healthcare Spending per Person
www.kpcb.com
Source: Dept. of Health & Human Services, US Census Bureau.
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Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Social Factors—
~28% of Annual Medicare Spending Geared Toward End-of-Life Care
(Last 12 Months)
2008 Medicare Total Benefit Expense
$363B
Medicare Spending on
Recipient’s Final Year of Life
$101B
28%
• People 65+ spent $14,797 per
year on healthcare on average in
2004, 3x what working-age
people (19-64) spend.
• It’s notable that ~28% of average
Medicare recipient spending occurs
in the final year of life and 12%
occurs in the final two months of
life.
www.kpcb.com
Sources: CMS, Medpac, Report to the Congress: Medicare Payment Policy, 3/10
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 286
� 1) Growing and Aging Population
� 2) Unhealthy Lifestyles
� 3) Possible Solutions
www.kpcb.com
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287
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Social Factors—
32% of Americans Considered Obese in 2008, Up from 15% in 1990…
1990
USA Adult Obesity Levels by State, 1990, 1999, 2008
1999
Obesity-Related Diseases
2008
Diabetes / Cancer / Respiratory /
Heart / Joint Diseases …
Obesity-Related Medical Costs
$147 billion in 2008, up 2x from 1998
to 7% of Healthcare Cost
No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–������������������
Note: An adult is considered obese if his / her Body Mass Index (BMI) is over 30. Source: Centers for Disease Control Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance
System, “America’s Health Rankings, A Call to Action for People and Their Communities, 2009 Edition”.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 288
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Social Factors—
Rising Obesity Pushes Up Healthcare Cost
� An estimated 7% of $2.1 trillion healthcare costs
(including those linked to diabetes, cancer, heart /
respiratory / joint diseases) were related to obesity in
2008. By comparison, that’s more than all corporate
income tax revenue that year.
www.kpcb.com
Note: Nearly half of all people in the U.S. with European ancestry carry a variant of the fat mass and obesity associated (FTO)
gene, vs. 25% of U.S. Hispanics, 15% of African Americans and 15% of Asian Americans, per UCLA.
Source: “Annual Medical Spending Attributable To Obesity: Payer- And Service-Specific Estimates."
Eric A. Finkelstein, Justin G. Trogdon, Joel W. Cohen, and William Dietz.
Health Affairs , July 27, 2009.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 289
� 1) Growing and Aging Population
� 2) Unhealthy Lifestyles
� 3) Possible Solutions
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 290
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Social Factors—Possible Solutions
Boost Healthcare Education & Incentives to Drive Better Choices
� Emphasize on disease prevention and wellness.
� Education and information
� Highlight health risk associated with certain behaviors and lifestyles
� Financial incentives for healthy habits
� Create social programs to champion healthy lifestyles and consumption
� Subsidize healthy foods for lower income population
� Discourage unhealthy behavior and consumption.
� Penalize poor health choices (create new incentives based upon lessons learned
from higher life insurance fees for smokers and car insurance fees for speeders)
� Consider additional / new taxes on cigarettes, non-diet sodas, etc.
www.kpcb.com
Source: Morgan Stanley Healthcare Research.
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Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Forces that Push Up
Healthcare Spending
1) Open access healthcare plans can increase access to care
(via greater choices of care providers), but can also
increase cost.
2) Consumers and providers are not always incentivized to
constrain their healthcare costs.
3) Even when appropriate, poor information & lack of price
transparency complicate comparison shopping for
consumers.
4) Advances in medical technology drive demand and costs.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 292
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Factors—
Rise in Usage of “Open Access” Healthcare Plans Makes It Harder to
Control Patient Choices…Subsequently, Cost of Care Increases
Societal demand for less restrictive health insurance has driven a gradual switch to open access
plans. These plans offer consumers greater choices of medical providers, but at higher costs.
Share of Tightly Managed vs. Open Access Healthcare Plans in USA, 1988 - 2008
100%
% of All Healthcare Plans
80%
60%
40%
20%
Open Access
(PPO + POS)
Tightly Managed
(Conventional +
HMO)
Other (HDHP)
0%
1988 1996 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Note: PPO is Preferred Provider Organization, which allows enrollees to select any doctor / hospital in the insurance provider’s network without going through a
primary care physician. HMO is Health Maintenance Organization, which requires enrollees to coordinate all healthcare via a primary care physician (a family
doctor). POS is Point Of Service, which combines the features of an HMO and a PPO. HDHP is High-Deductible Health Plan, a form of catastrophic coverage with
lower premiums and higher deductibles than a traditional plan. Source: Kaiser/HRET Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits, 1999-2009; KPMG Survey of
Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits, 1993, 1996; The Health Insurance Association of America (HIAA), 1988
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 293
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Factors—
Less Incentive for Consumers or Providers to Control Costs
When Someone Else (Government / Taxpayers) Pays the Bills
Out-of-Pocket Spending Accounted for Just 12% of Healthcare Spending in 2009,
Down from 48% in 1960
50%
Out-of-Pocket Payments
Payments as % of Total Healthcare Spending
40%
30%
20%
10%
48%
Medicare
Introduced
Medicare + Medicaid Payments
Out-of-Pocket Medical Payments as % of Disposable Income
7%
4% 3%
35%
12%
0%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
www.kpcb.com
Source: Department of Health & Human Services, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 294
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Factors –
Employer and Government Funding System Separates Consumers from
True Costs of Healthcare
� When one doesn’t pay directly and gets an expensive good / service for
free (or well below cost), one tends to consume more – it’s basic supply
and demand economics.
� Count up the subsidies:
� Medicaid: 47 million (24MM children / 12MM low-income adults / 7MM
disabled / 4MM elderly) Americans (15% of population) each received $6,872
in taxpayer funds, on average, for healthcare in 2008 through Medicaid. That
$6,872 equals ~19% of annual per-capita income for Americans.
� Medicare: 45 million elderly Americans (15% of population) averaged $7,991
per person for healthcare in 2008 ($4,875 for hospital care; $3,116 for medical
insurance and prescription drugs). That equals ~23% of annual per capita
income.
� Private Market: 157mm Americans with private health coverage (subsidized
by employers) in 2008 paid just 16% of the total premium cost themselves for
single coverage and 27% for family coverage. In effect, that represented taxfree
“earnings” of $3,951 for singles or $9,256 for families (not including the
tax savings on their personal premium contributions).
www.kpcb.com
Source: Department of Health & Human Services, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
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Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Factors—
Healthcare Providers Are Rewarded for Driving Revenue
• While striving to provide the best care possible, healthcare
providers tend to have financial / legal / societal incentives to
provide more care, all else equal.
• Reimbursement for providers is generally volume-based (e.g., more
procedures generate more revenue for care providers), though there
are efforts to increasingly focus on quality.
• Unlike car buyers, for example, who often disregard a dealer’s
maxed-out model and choose only the features that are important to
them and what they can afford, healthcare buyers tend to buy all the
“features” as: 1) buyers (patients in this case) are typically not
medical experts, so they defer to doctors / care providers for
decisions; and 2) buyers only bear a small portion of the costs as
someone else (employer or government) is paying for the features.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 296
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Factors—
Rising Healthcare Costs Disproportionately Borne by Employers and Individuals
Over the last few decades, private payors (employer-sponsored health insurance
plans) have consistently paid more than government payors (Medicare / Medicaid) and
have, in effect, subsidized government reimbursement.
Payment to Cost Ratio
140%
130%
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
Healthcare Service Payment to Cost Ratio, 1990 - 2006
Private Payor
Medicare
Medicaid
70%
www.kpcb.com
60%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Source: Avalere Health Analysis of American Hospital Association Annual Survey data, 2006, for community hospitals.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
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Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Differential Payment Rates Can Create a
Negative Cycle Leading to Erosion of Private Healthcare Coverage and
Higher Entitlement Spending
5. Employers/
Consumers Drop
Insurance Coverage
4. Higher Health
Insurance Premiums
3. Higher Private
Market Cost Trend
2. Cost Shifting onto
the Private Market
1. Providers Charge
Higher Prices to
Private Market than to
Government Market
6. Increasing Number
of Uninsured
7. Increasing Use of
Medicaid / Medicare
8. Government
Reimbursement
Pressure Rises
9. Government Lowers
Reimbursement Rate to
Providers
www.kpcb.com
Source: Doug Simpson, Morgan Stanley Healthcare Research.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 298
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Factors—
Reimbursement Reform Is Easier Said than Done Owing to Political Sensitivity…
Percentage Contribution to Medicare
Medical Cost Growth Rate
by Spending Type, 2019E
Key Issues:
All Other
Rx Drugs
Nursing Home &
Home Health
9.9%
16.2%
Physician
& Clinical
Services
9.3%
20.1%
44.5%
Hospital
Care
- Consumers understandably do not
like constraints on their care
location.
- Doctors, nurses and hospitals are
fulfilling a difficult task at the core of
the healthcare delivery system.
- Care providers are very important
to local communities.
- Local hospitals are large
employers.
- Many hospitals are struggling
financially.
www.kpcb.com
Source: Data per CMS’ National Health Expenditure database, Doug Simpson, Morgan Stanley Healthcare Research.
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Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Factors—
Healthcare Service Providers are Already “Underpaid” by Government
USA Community Hospital Profit Margins & Inpatient Discharges by Payor Class
32%
�
Profit margins by
payor class (%),
2007
-9% -12%
-45%
4.5%
Profit margins from patients
with employer sponsored
insurance are sufficient to
leave hospital industry with
positive overall margin,
despite being only 36% of
inpatient discharges.
�
Percent of total
inpatient
discharges, by
payor class
(%), February
2009
36%
Employer
Sponsored
Insurance
42%
Medicare
17% 5%
Medicaid Self-Pay
100%
Total
Reimbursement cuts to
Medicare and/or Medicaid
would pose significant
challenges, as hospitals
already realize negative
margins from those payor
classes.
Source: Avalere Health analysis of American Hospital Association Annual Survey data, 2007, for community hospitals. Morgan Stanley Healthcare Research.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 300
www.kpcb.com
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Factors—
Poor Information & Lack of Price Transparency
Make it Harder for Consumers to “Comparison Shop”
Patients are at a healthcare information disadvantage in two respects 1 :
• Lack of transparency:
‣ It’s harder for consumers to compare prices of healthcare services from
different healthcare providers than in other consumer markets given the
complexity of healthcare market.
‣ With employer- / government-subsidized insurance, many patients are
‘locked in’ with their insurance plans that do not incentivize “shopping
around.”
• Knowledge gap:
‣ Unlike other markets where consumers tend to use their own information and
preferences, consumers depend more on the advice and guidance of
physicians or other healthcare suppliers.
‣ Unlike other “merchandise,” healthcare is literally of life-and-death
importance to consumers, making risk aversion – and price
insensitivity – higher. This price insensitivity is exacerbated because the
consumer, in effect, gets it at a discounted price anyway.
Source: 1) Accounting for the cost of US healthcare, McKinsey Global Institute
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 301
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Factors—
Consumers Increasingly Demand Expensive Treatment and Are Able to
Pay for it With Government Subsidies
Total High-End Surgeries up 50x from 1970-2004, Driven by Medical
Advancements + Consumer Ability to Spend Assisted by Government Payments
Coronary Procedures
# of Patients (Aged 50+) Undergoing
Advanced Procedures in USA
1970 2004
Typical Costs per
Procedure ($)
Angioplasty / Stent
Implantation
<20,000 1.1 million $12,000
Pacemaker / ICD 1 <10,000 350,000 $15-34,000
Bypass <10,000 220,000 $28,000
Dialysis Procedures <10,000 480,000
Joint Replacement Procedures
$24-72,000 per
year
Hip <20,000 390,000 $12,500
Knee -- 440,000 $12,500
www.kpcb.com
Note: 1) ICD is Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator, which is similar to a pacemaker but for a heart rhythm that beats too fast.
Cost of procedure approximated by Medicare reimbursement.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 302
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Factors—
Unconstrained Access to Medical Technology Increases Cost of Care…
� Researchers generally agree that advances in medical technology
have contributed to rising US Health Spending 1
� Medical technology affects the costs of care through several
“mechanisms of action” 2
�
�
�
�
�
�
New treatments for previously untreatable terminal conditions
Major advances in clinical ability to treat previously untreatable acute conditions
New procedures for discovering and treating secondary diseases
New indications for a treatment over time
Ongoing, incremental improvements in existing capabilities
Major advances or the cumulative effect of incremental gains extending clinical
practice to conditions once regarded beyond its boundaries
� Very expensive, high-end medical procedures (such as dialysis and heart
bypass) – which can easily cost as much as the average annual income of
an American – are increasingly 60-70% subsidized by taxpayer dollars.
www.kpcb.com
Source: 1) “How Changes in Medical Technology Affect Healthcare Costs,” Kaiser Family Foundation, March 2007; 2) Richard A.
Retting, “Medical Innovation Duels Cost Containment,” Health Affairs (Summer 1994).
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 303
Opportunity for Two Mutually Reinforcing Cycles:
Information + Incentives…
� More widespread adoption of healthcare information technology, in particular
clinical decision support software, should yield better information and provider
decisions.
� Healthcare is at the cusp of leveraging decision-support technology after
historically lagging other industries.
� Opportunity to develop best practices to improve patient care and outcomes
and reduce medical errors and costs.
� More evidence-based care could help to narrow the variation in practice norms
� The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 provided approximately
$19 billion for Medicare and Medicaid Health IT incentives.
� Medpac summarizes the opportunities and issues succinctly.
� "Drivers of investment in IT include the promise of quality and efficiency gains.
Barriers include the cost and complexity of IT implementation, which often
necessitates significant work process and cultural changes. Certain
characteristics of the health care market—including payment policies that
reward volume rather than quality, and a fragmented delivery system—can also
pose barriers to IT adoption."
Source: Morgan Stanley Healthcare Research.
www.kpcb.com USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 304

…Opportunity for Two Mutually Reinforcing Cycles:
Information + Incentives
� Improving incentives for providers and consumers is also critical.
� Providers need appropriate incentives to improve quality of care and lower
costs.
� Drivers include more widespread adoption of bundled payments and
accountable care organizations.
� Tort reform could play an important role.
� Consumers need to take more responsibility for their own health and to utilize
the healthcare system appropriately.
� Appropriate social and financial incentives are key.
Source: Morgan Stanley Healthcare Research.
www.kpcb.com USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 305
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Factors–Possible Solutions
1) Cost-Sharing and/or
2) Reimbursement Reform and/or
3) Improving Cost & Quality Transparency and/or
4) Deploy Cost-Benefit Analysis for Medical
Technology Spending
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 306
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Factors–Possible Solutions
1) Cost-Sharing
• Cost-sharing can help control demand for a portion of healthcare by creating
incentives for consumers to shop for most cost-effective treatments (although those
benefits would be somewhat mitigated by the skew in health spending toward high
users).
• Once again, a Math Problem: Consider a routine physician office visit in which a provider
suggests and / or patient requests various tests, procedures, etc.
• Patient #1 covered by a plan with a $20 co-pay (i.e., a flat fee regardless of the level or
intensity of care performed during the visit)
• Patient #2 covered by a plan with a 10% co-insurance for in-network care (i.e.,
responsible for 10% of the aggregate billed charges)
• Clearly, patient #2 will become more sensitive to necessity and cost of care beyond a
level of $200 of total healthcare services
• Note that deductibles drive similar dynamic as a co-pay: once the deductible is met, the
member has little or no “skin in the game”
• Only 14-18% of employer-sponsored health insurance plans use pro-rata cost sharing (i.e.
co-insurance in example #2 above). Most (77%) insurance plans only use a co-pay (in
example #1), which gives consumers little incentive to shop the most cost-effective treatment
path.
www.kpcb.com
Source: Kaiser/HRET Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits, 2009
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Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Factors–Possible Solutions
2) Reimbursement Reform
Reimbursement reform could help shift drivers of payment from quantity of
care to quality of care. The following list provides a few options to consider.
• Bundled Payments: Providers get a fixed budget to treat an episode of care (i.e. a broken
hip). Exceeding the budget means providers absorb additional costs; staying under it lets
provider benefit from savings.
• Examples: PROMETHEUS Payment System 1 , Medicare Acute Care Episode
Demonstration 2
• Global payment system 3 (i.e., capitation): Providers are paid up-front to provide care that their
patient receives over a period, incentivizing them to manage costs and quality. This global
payment is adjusted periodically to reward accessible and high-quality care.
• Pay for performance 4 : Reimbursement for care providers varies, based on various quality and
efficiency measures such as discharge rate and readmission rate.
• Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs): Provider groups accept responsibility for the cost
and quality of care for a specific population of patients 5
• The recently enacted Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act includes regulations
supporting the creation of Accountable Care Organizations
• Other models often discussed to improve coordination / efficiency and reduce costs : 1)
integrated delivery systems; 2) multispecialty group practices; 3) physician-hospital
organizations; 4) independent practice associations; 5) virtual physician organizations
Source: 1) Cutting Healthcare Costs by Putting Doctors on a Budget, Time 1) Adopted in Rockford, IL in Jan 2010 2) Medicare Demonstration Project Overviews,
www.cms.gov/demoprojects 3) Recommendations of the Special Commission on the Healthcare Payment, Commonwealth of Massachusetts 4) Pay for
Performance Incentive Programs in Healthcare , Geoffrey Baker 5) How the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation Should Test Accountable Care
Organizations, Stephen Shortell, Lawrence P. Casalino and Elliott S. Fisher for Health Affairs, July 2010
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 308
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Factors–Possible Solutions
3) Improving Cost & Quality Transparency
• Improving cost and quality transparency of healthcare services could help
doctors and patients make more informed decisions for each situation.
• Though enhancing competition and price transparency in healthcare is not
easy, 1 new models for encouraging “comparison shopping” are emerging:
• Castlight Health, a start-up financed by venture capitalists and the
Cleveland Clinic, is working to build a search engine for healthcare prices 2
• Other services beginning to publish price information: Thomson Reuters,
Change: healthcare, and health insurers (e.g., the Aetna Navigator) 2
• A 2007 study by Deloitte proposes a “Price Transparency Checklist for
States”:
• provide prices for services that matter to consumers
• make it easy to understand
• keep care providers, insurance & pharmaceutical companies engaged and informed
• provide price and quality measures
• keep expanding price transparency initiatives
• maintain methodological rigor
• promote access and use of price information
• evaluate impact and ROI
Source: 1) The Market for Medical Care: Why You Don’t Know the Price; Why You Don’t Know about Quality; And What Can Be Done About It, by Devon M.
Herrick and John C. Goodman, March 12, 2007; 2) “Bringing Comparison Shopping to the Doctor’s Office,” The New York Times, June 10, 2010; 3) Healthcare
Price Transparency: A Strategic Perspective for State Government Leaders, by Deloitte Center for Health Solutions, 2007
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 309
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Economic Factors–Possible Solutions
4) Deploy Cost-Benefit Analysis for Medical Technology Spending
� Deploying cost-benefit analysis for medical technology
spending can help ensure we are spending resources wisely.
� Directly measuring the impact of new technology on total
healthcare spending – and its true value – is very difficult 1
� The Kaiser Foundation outlines some of the more common policy
suggestions for dealing with this driver of costs:
� Cost-effectiveness analysis (i.e., comparative effectiveness)
� Rationing (unlikely to be adopted owing to political sensitivity),
regulation, budget-driven constraints (used by other countries
but generally not popular in the U.S.)
� Market-based rationing (consumer-driven healthcare, pay-forperformance,
information technology)
www.kpcb.com
Source: 1) “How Changes in Medical Technology Affect Healthcare Costs,” Kaiser Family Foundation, March 2007.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 310
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Legal Forces that Push Up
Healthcare Spending
1) Defensive Medicine
2) Possible Solutions
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
311
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Legal Factors—
“Defensive Medicine” Drives up Healthcare Spending
• Defensive Medicine consists of procedures or tests that a doctor
orders to avoid possible future malpractice lawsuits.
• The practice is prevalent among US physicians and is contributing
factor to healthcare spending. According to a survey of 824
physicians in 2005 1 :
• 93% said they had engaged in the practice of Defensive Medicine
• 59% said they often ordered more diagnostic tests than medically
necessary
• 52% said they referred patients to other specialists in unnecessary
circumstances
• 33% said they often prescribed more medications than medically
necessary
www.kpcb.com
Source: 1) David Studdert, et al., American Medical Association, “Defensive Medicine Among High-Risk Specialist Physicians
in a Volatile Malpractice Environment,” 6/2005.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 312
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Legal Factors—Possible Solution
Tort Reform Could Reduce Incentives of Defensive Medicine
Ways to control costs from tort litigation without jeopardizing patient
health
The CBO listed a package of tort reform proposals (10/09):
� Cap of $250,000 on awards for noneconomic damages for malpractice
� Cap on awards for punitive damages of $500,000 or twice the award for
economic damages, whichever is greater
� Modification of the “collateral source” rule to allow evidence of income from
such sources as health and life insurance, workers’ compensation, and
automobile insurance and subtract it from jury awards
� A statute of limitations – one year for adults and three years for children –
from the date of discovery of an injury
� Replacement of joint-and-several liability with fair-share rule: Defendants
would be liable only for the percentage of a final award equal to their share of
responsibility
www.kpcb.com
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Letter to the Honorable Orrin G. Hatch dated October 9, 2009; Congressional Budget
Office, Letter to the Honorable John D. Rockefeller IV dated December 10, 2009
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
313
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Legal Factors—Possible Solution
Tort Reform Could Save USA Inc. $54 Billion Over Next 10 Years
• CBO estimates that a package of typical tort reform proposals could
reduce total US health spending by 0.5% annually:
� Direct savings: Roughly 0.2% of this reduction stems from lower national
premiums for medical malpractice insurance.
� Indirect savings: Another 0.3% stems from slightly lower utilization of
services related to defensive medicine.
• Over 10 years, CBO estimated tort reform could reduce net healthcare
spending by $54 billion:
• Spending for Medicare, Medicaid, Children’s Health Insurance Program,
and Federal Employees Health Benefits could fall ~$41 billion over the
next decade (with the greatest savings in Medicare).
• Federal tax revenues could rise by ~$13 billion as lower health insurance
costs for employers could lead to higher take-home pay for employees
and therefore higher income taxes for USA Inc.
www.kpcb.com
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Letter to the Honorable Orrin G. Hatch dated October 9, 2009; Congressional Budget
Office, Letter to the Honorable John D. Rockefeller IV dated December 10, 2009
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 314
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Policy Option #3
� Improve Efficiency / Productivity
of Healthcare System
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
315
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Most Businesses are Performance-
Based, Many Components of Healthcare System are Not
USA Healthcare Outcome (based on Life Expectancy) Have Room For
Improvement Relative to Other Countries
Healthcare Spending per capita vs. Average Life Expectancy Among OECD Countries, 2007
85
Average Life Expectancy at Birth (Years)
80
75
Mexico
S. Korea
Hungary
Japan
UK
Linear Trend line (ex. USA)
�
USA
70
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
www.kpcb.com
Total Expenditure on Health per capita, $US (PPP Adj.)
Source: OECD.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 316
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: In Addition to Life Expectancy, USA Falls
Behind OECD Averages in Many Other Health Indicators
2007 Health Indicators
USA
OECD
Median
USA Ranking
(1 = Best, 30 = Worst)
RED = Below Average
Obesity (% of total population) 34 15 30
Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births) 7 4 27
Medical Resources Available (per 1,000 population)
Total Hospital Beds 3 6 25
Practicing Physicians 2 3 22
Doctors’ Consultations per Year 4 6 19
MRI Machines* (per million population) 26 9 1
Cause of Death (per 100,000 population)
Heart Attack 216 178 22
Respiratory Diseases 60 45 21
Diabetes 20 12 20
Cancer 158 159 14
Stroke 33 45 8
www.kpcb.com
Note: *MRI is Magnetic Resonance Imaging. Source: OECD.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
317
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Effectiveness Research Could Improve
Efficiency (i.e., Outputs Track Inputs)
� Comparative Effectiveness evaluates different options for treating a condition for a
specific set of patients 1
�
�
Either relative benefits and risks of various treatment options (technology
assessment, evidence-based medicine), or
Both clinical effectiveness and relative cost (cost-benefit analysis).
� Without rigorous data about comparative effectiveness, according to the CBO:
�
�
Treatment decisions often depend on anecdotal evidence, conjecture, and the
experience/judgment of involved physicians.
Treatments and types of care vary widely from one area of the country to another.
� To affect healthcare spending meaningfully, comparative effectiveness must alter
doctor and patient behavior, potentially through reimbursement scheme changes, the
CBO notes.
� Note that by law, Medicare is effectively precluded from considering costs when
making coverage decisions.
www.kpcb.com
Source: “Research on the Comparative Effectiveness of Medical Treatments”, A CBO Paper, December 2007.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 318
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Policy Option #4
� Reducing Optional Services + Optional Beneficiary
Groups 1 Could Save Up to ~60% of Annual
Medicaid Cost, per Kaiser Family Foundation
Note: 1) Medicaid is a jointly financed federal and state program that provides health and long-term care services to 55 million low-income Americans. As a
condition of participating in Medicaid, states are required to cover certain “mandatory” populations and to provide a specified set of benefits. States also have
discretion to cover additional low-income individuals in each of these categories (“optional groups”) and receive federal matching payments. Optional eligibility
categories include children and parents, persons with disabilities and the elderly above mandatory coverage limits; persons residing in nursing facilities; and the
medically needy. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, 2005
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 319
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Policy Option # 4 –
Reducing Optional Services + Beneficiary Groups 1 Could Save
Up to 60% of Annual Medicaid Spending
Medicaid Expenditures by Eligibility Group and Type of Service, 2001
Mandatory
Services* for
Optional
Groups
30.1% 39.4%
Mandatory
Services for
Mandatory
Groups
Eliminating
optional groups
could save
~42% of total
Medicaid
spending
Optional
Services* for
Optional
Groups
12.3%
18.1%
Federal-required
mandatory services
/ groups = ~40%
total spending
Optional
Services for
Mandatory
Groups
Eliminating optional
services could save ~30%
of total Medicaid spending
Note: 1) Medicaid is a jointly financed federal and state program that provides health and long-term care services to 55 million low-income Americans. As a
condition of participating in Medicaid, states are required to cover certain “mandatory” populations and to provide a specified set of benefits. States also have
discretion to cover additional low-income individuals in each of these categories (“optional groups”) and receive federal matching payments. Optional eligibility
categories include children and parents, persons with disabilities and the elderly above mandatory coverage limits; persons residing in nursing facilities; and the
medically needy. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, 2005
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 320
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Examples of Medicaid’s
Mandatory Beneficiaries & Services
Examples of Mandatory Beneficiaries
� Children under age 6 with family annual
income below $20,841
� Children age 6 or older with family
annual income below $15,670
� Pregnant women with annual income
below $12,382
� Elderly and disabled with annual
income between below $6,768 (for an
individual)
Examples of Mandatory Services
� Physician services
� Laboratory & x-ray services
� Inpatient hospital services
� Outpatient hospital services
� Rural health clinic services
� Certified pediatric and family nurse
practitioner services
� Early & periodic screening,
diagnostic, and treatment (EPSDT)
services for individuals under 21
www.kpcb.com
Note: Supplementary Security Income and Federal Poverty Levels are 2005 levels. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, 2005.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
321
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Examples of Medicaid’s
Optional Beneficiaries & Services
Examples of Optional Beneficiaries
� Disabled and elderly with annual
income between $7,082
(Supplementary Security Income, or
SSI) and $9,310 (Federal Poverty
Level, or FPL)
� Nursing home residents with annual
income between $7,082 (SSI) and
$21,000 (3x SSI)
� Pregnant women with annual income
above $12,382 (>133% of FPL)
� Children under 6 with annual family
income above $20,841
Examples of Optional Services
� Prescription drugs
� Dental services
� Rehabilitation and other therapies
� Prosthetic devices, eyeglasses,
durable medical equipment
� Hospice services
� Inpatient psychiatric hospital
services for individuals under age 21
� Other specialist medical or remedial
care
www.kpcb.com
Note: Supplementary Security Income and Federal Poverty Levels are 2005 levels. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, 2005.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 322
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Policy Option #5
� Consider / Implement CBO’s 26 policy options that
could reduce annual budget deficit by up to 38%
over the next 10 years
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
323
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: CBO Policy Options—
Regulate Private Health Insurance Market; Modify Tax Code;
Modify Insurance Eligibility; Improve Efficiency
Policy Options
Require large employers to either pay government for providing insurance or offer employees
basic insurance coverage
Gov. Future Deficit
Reduction (%) 1
0.7%
Replace the income tax and payroll tax exclusion with a refundable credit 8.8%
Replace the income tax exclusion for employment-based health insurance with a deduction 8.0%
Reduce the tax exclusion for employment-based health insurance and the health insurance
deduction for self-employed individuals
6.6%
Raise the age of eligibility for Medicare to 67 1.2%
Convert Medicare and Medicaid “Disproportionate Share Hospital Payments” into a block grant 1.2%
Consolidate Medicare and Federal Medicaid payments for graduate medical education costs at
teaching hospitals; set consolidated payment equal to:
• Adjusted IME 3 payments using a 2.2% adjustment factor + DGME 4 and Medicaid GME 2 funding
inflated by the CPI-U 5 minus 1 percentage point
0.8%
• 90% total mandatory GME 2 funding inflated by the CPI-U minus 1 percentage point 0.4%
www.kpcb.com
Note: 1) As % of Cumulative Total Government Deficit from 2010 to 2019 2) Graduate Medical Education 3) Indirect Medical
Education 4) Direct Graduate Medical Education 5) Consumer price index for all urban consumers Source: CBO
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 324
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: CBO’s Policy Options –
Reduce Medicare / Medicaid Payments; Modify Premium and
Cost-Sharing in Federal Health Programs
Policy Options
Gov. Future Deficit
Reduction (%) 1
Reduce Medicare's payment rates across the board in high-spending areas 0.7%
Remove or reduce the floor on Federal matching rates for Medicaid services
• Remove the floor on the federal medical assistance percentage 3.3%
• Reduce the floor on the federal medical assistance percentage to 45% 1.9%
Reduce the taxes that states are allowed to levy on Medicaid providers 0.7%
Increase the basic premium for Medicare Part B to 35% of the program's costs 3.2%
Combine changes to Medicare's cost sharing with restrictions on Medigap policies 2 1.1%
Require a copayment for home health episodes covered by Medicare 0.7%
Restrict Medigap coverage of Medicare's cost sharing 0.6%
Introduce minimum out-of-pocket requirements under TRICARE for life 0.6%
www.kpcb.com
Note: 1) As % of Total Cumulative Government Deficit from 2010 to 2019 2) Individual insurance policies designed to cover
most or all of Medicare’s cost-sharing requirements. Source: CBO
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 325
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Policy Option #6
� Consider / Implement National Commission on
Fiscal Responsibility and Reform’s medium- and
long-term policy options
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 326
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Medium-Term Policy Options From the
Report of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform
Medium-Term Policy Options
Convert the federal share of Medicaid payments for long-term care into a
capped allotment
Deficit Reduction
F2012-F2020E 1
$89 billion
Reform Tricare for Life 2 to increase cost sharing for Military retirees $55
Cut federal spending on graduate and indirect medical education $54
Reduce taxes that States may levy on Medicaid providers $49
Expand ACOs, payment bundling, and other payment reform $38
Accelerate phase-in of DSH payment cuts 3 , Medicare Advantage cuts
and home health cuts in PPACA
$37
Other 4 $73
Total Deficit Reduction F2012-F2020E
$395 billion
Note: 1) Cost reductions are Fiscal Commission staff estimates based on CBO and other available sources. Most numbers were generated pre-healthcare reform
and may differ significantly. 2) Tricare for Life is a supplementary military health insurance designed to minimize Medicare-eligible military retirees’ out-of-pocket
medical expenses. 3) DSH is the Medicare and Medicaid disproportionate share hospital payments for hospitals that receive disproportionately large Medicare and
Medicaid patients. 4) Other includes reduce Medicaid administrative costs, increase nominal Medicaid copays, cut Medicare payments for bad debt, increase cost
sharing for federal civilian retirees and place dual-eligible individuals in Medicaid Managed Care. Source: National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform,
“The Moment of Truth: Report of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform,” 12/1/10.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 327
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid: Long-Term Policy Options From the
Report of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform
� Set global target for total federal health expenditures after 2020
(Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, exchange subsidies, employer health
exclusion), and review costs every two years. Keep federal health
expenditure growth to one percentage points above GDP growth.
� If costs have grown faster than targets (on average of previous 5 years),
require President to submit and Congress to consider reforms to lower
spending, such as:
� Increase premiums (or further increase cost-sharing)
� Overhaul the fee-for-service system
� Develop a premium support system for Medicare
� Add a robust public option and/or all-payer system in the exchange
� Further expand authority of the Independent Payment Advisory
Board (IPAB)*
Note: IPAB is a 15-member Independent Payment Advisory Board established under PPACA with significant authority with respect to Medicare payment rates.
Beginning in 2014, in any year in which the Medicare per capita growth rate exceeded a target growth rate, the IPAB would be required to recommend
Medicare spending reductions. The recommendations would become law unless Congress passed an alternative proposal that achieved the same level of
budgetary savings. Source: National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, “The Moment of Truth: Report of the National Commission on Fiscal
Responsibility and Reform,” 12/1/10.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 328
Focus on Expenses–
Reform Entitlement Programs + Focus on Operating Efficiency
1
Focus on
Expenses
Restructure Social Security
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid
Reform
Entitlement
Programs
Focus on
Operating
Efficiency
Review Federal Wages & Benefits
Review Government Pension Plan Characteristics
& Compare with Private Sector Plans
Review Role of Unions
Review Government Cost Structure &
Consider Reducing Federal Headcount
Determine if There are Non-Core ‘Business Lines’
That Can Be Centralized / Locally Out-Sourced
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
329
Start with the Basic High-Level Math –
Review Government Cost Structure
� Government (federal + state + local, including military)
spending per household has steadily risen to 82% of
median post-tax household income, up from 51% in 1967.
� Federal spending (ex. entitlement + interest payments +
one-time items) per household has remained flat since
1967, while entitlement + interest payments + one-time
items spending per household rose 3x.
�
Including federal, GSE, state and local (excluding military)
employees, there is one public worker for every six households
in the country, unchanged from 1967 or 1980 levels.
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Real spending adjusted for inflation, in 2005 dollars. Source: Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 330
Total Government (Federal + State + Local, including Military) Spending
Has Risen to 82% of Median Household Income*, Up from 51% in 1967
Total Government Spending per Household
($)
Real USA Government Spending per Household and as Percent of Post-Tax
Median Annual Household Income, 1967 – 2010
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Real Government (Federal+State+Local) Spending per Household ($)
Government Spending per Household as % of Median Household Income (%)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Government Spending per Household as %
of Median Household Income (%)
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Post tax. Real spending adjusted for inflation using BEA’s GDP price index, in 2005 dollars. Data source: Census Bureau,
Bureau of Economic Analysis.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 331
Federal (Including Military) Spending Has Risen to 65% of Median Household Income*,
Up from 39% in 1967, Driven by Entitlement Spending + Interest Payments
Federal Spending per Household ($)
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
Real USA Federal Spending per Household and as Percent of Post-Tax
Median Household Income, 1967 – 2010
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Entitlement / Interest Payments / One-Time Real Federal Spending per Household
Real Federal Spending per Household (ex. Entitlement / Interest Payments / One-Time Items)
Federal Spending per Household as % of Median Household Income (%)
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Federal Spending per Household as % of Median
Household Income (%)
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Post tax. Real spending adjusted for inflation, in 2005 dollars. Data source: White House Office of Management and
Budget, Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 332
Federal (Including Military) Spending Per Household = $29,043 in F2010
Federal Entitlement Spending Per Household = More Than Half ($16,670)
F2010 USA Inc. Expenses =
$3.5T
F2010 USA Inc. Expenses Per
Household = $29,043
Non-Defense
Discretionary
$431B
Discretionary
One-Time Items
$152B
Net Interest
Payment
$196B
12%
6%
4%
20%
Social
Security
$707B
Entitlements $16,670
Social Security $5,939
Medicare + Federal Medicaid $6,087
Unemployment Insurance + Other $4,644
Defense
$694B
20%
16%
22%
Medicare +
Federal
Medicaid
$724B
Defense $5,828
Non-Defense Discretionary $3,619
Discretionary One-Time Items $1,277
Net Interest Payments $1,649
www.kpcb.com
Unemployment Insurance
+ Other Entitlements
$553B
Note: Non-defense discretionary spending includes infrastructure, education, law enforcement, etc. Discretionary one-time items includes TARP,
ARRA, and spending on GSEs. Source: White House Office of Management and Budget, Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 333
At a High Level, With Focus on Improving Operating Efficiency,
USA Inc. Might Consider Ways to Do Things Like…
� Consider empowering an independent / 3 rd party auditor with expertise in government
operations around the world / corporate turnarounds to conduct a broad-ranging audit of
USA Inc.’s operations.
� Restore strong rules for budget process: Require annual budget resolutions and
reconciliation; PAYGO* to limit spending, enforce annual appropriations process consider
biennial budgeting.
� Consider giving the President ‘line-item’ veto / rescission authority.
� Empower commissions analogous to the military base closing panels to review and
consolidate government functions and agencies, as well as aid to State and local
governments.
� Seek flexibility to manage performance and terminate poor-performing Federal employees.
� Develop flexible / long-term compensation plans including bonus payments for Federal
employees when annual budget deficit reduction goals are met.
� Privatize government real estate and other assets with little use, expanding on current
efforts to trim $3 billion in government-owned real estate.
� Identify additional opportunities to increase public/private investment, management and
operations to drive innovation and investment in infrastructure
www.kpcb.com
Note: PAYGO is the practice of financing expenditures with funds that are currently available rather than borrowed.
Source: KPCB and Alvarez & Marsal Public Sector Services, LLC.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 334
1
Focus on
Expenses
Restructure Social Security
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid
Reform
Entitlement
Programs
Focus on
Operating
Efficiency
Review Federal Wages & Benefits
Review Government Pension Plan Characteristics
& Compare with Private Sector Plans
Review Role of Unions
Review Government Cost Structure &
Consider Reducing Federal Headcount
Determine if There are Non-Core ‘Business Lines’
That Can Be Centralized / Locally Out-Sourced
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
335
Review Wages: A Comprehensive / Independent
Review of Federal Wages & Benefits System May Be Worthwhile
� Analysis of existing data on federal wages & benefits is controversial.
� USA Today and the Cato Institute examined simple averages of federal (excluding military)
wages & benefits vs. private sector using Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data and
concluded that federal wages & benefits are ~100% higher than private industry – wages
are 58% higher while benefits are 3x higher. 1 (March 2010, updated in August 2010)
� The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the U.S. Office of
Personnel Management (OPM) responded that gross average comparisons are ‘unfair and
untrue.’ And when one holds education and age constant, federal employees earn slightly
less than those in the private sector on average, although the difference is not statistically
significant. 2 (March 2010)
� The Heritage Foundation, in response to OPM and OMB’s comments, released a statistical
analysis based on BEA data, and claimed that adjusting for variables such as age,
education, marital status, race, gender, size of the metropolitan area, and several others,
federal wages & benefits are 31% higher than private industry for occupations in both
government and private sector. 3 (July 2010)
Source: 1) Dennis Cauchon, USA Today, “Federal Workers earning double their private counterparts,” http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/income/2010-08-
10-1Afedpay10_ST_N.htm Tad DeHaven, “Federal Employees Continue to Prosper,” http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/federal-employees-continue-to-prosper/; 2) John
Berry, “OPM Statement on Federal Employee Pay – Recent Comparisons of Federal Pay to Private Sector are Unfair and Untrue,”
http://www.opm.gov/opm_federalemployeepay/ & Peter Orszag, “Salary Statistics,” http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/blog/10/03/10/Salary-Statistics; 3) James Sherk,
“Comparing Pay in the Federal Government and the Private Sector,” http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/07/comparing-pay-in-the-federal-governmentand-the-private-sector
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 336
Review Wages: A Turnaround Expert Would Drill Down on Compensation
Differences Between Public & Private Sectors
� In the absence of reliable, generally accepted adjustment factors,
USA Inc. needs a comprehensive 3 rd -party review of its compensation
practices.
� Most businesses constantly review their compensation practices; these
reviews typically intensify when the financials of the core business erode.
� Considerations include compensation for comparable jobs, uniqueness
of skill sets and education required for particular roles, productivity,
hours worked, regional cost of living, job security, years of service, and
financial health of the business unit.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
337
1
Focus on
Expenses
Restructure Social Security
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid
Reform
Entitlement
Programs
Focus on
Operating
Efficiency
Review Federal Wages & Benefits
Review Government Pension Plan Characteristics
& Compare with Private Sector Plans
Review Role of Unions
Review Government Cost Structure &
Consider Reducing Federal Headcount
Determine if There are Non-Core ‘Business Lines’
That Can Be Centralized / Locally Out-Sourced
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 338
Review Pension Plans: 70% of Federal Government Employees Still Enjoy
“Guaranteed” Pensions, While Such Defined-Benefit Pension Plans Are
Increasingly Rare in Private Sector (now at 32% vs. 84% in 1980)
Employees with Guaranteed Pensions (% Participating in Defined Benefit Pensions)
Federal Government vs. State & Local Government vs. Private Sector, 1980-2007
100%
% Employees w/ Guaranteed Pension
16pps
80%
60%
40%
20%
37pps
State & Local
Government
Federal
Government
Private Sector
0%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
www.kpcb.com
Sources: EBRI Databook on Employee Benefits.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
339
Review Pension Plans: Private Sector Has Embraced “Defined Contribution”
Pension Plans, While Federal + State & Local Governments Lag Behind
Participation Rate of Defined Contribution Program: Federal, State/Local vs. Private Sector, 1980-2007
% of Employees Participating in Defined Contribution Pension
Plans
60%
40%
20%
0%
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Private Sector
Federal
Government
State / Local
Government
www.kpcb.com
Sources: EBRI Databook on Employee Benefits
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 340
Review Pension: Pension Plan Definitions / Characteristics
� “Guaranteed” Pension Plan – Retirees receive predetermined monthly
retirement benefits from employers despite the funding status /
investment returns of their pension funds. Also known as defined benefit
pension plan.
� Defined Contribution Pension Plan – Retirees contribute specified
amounts to their pension funds and receive variable monthly retirement
benefits depending on investment returns. Examples include Individual
Retirement Accounts (IRAs) and 401(k) plans.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
341
1
Focus on
Expenses
Restructure Social Security
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid
Reform
Entitlement
Programs
Focus on
Operating
Efficiency
Review Federal Wages & Benefits
Review Government Pension Plan Characteristics
& Compare with Private Sector Plans
Review Role of Unions
Review Government Cost Structure &
Consider Reducing Federal Headcount
Determine if There are Non-Core ‘Business Lines’
That Can Be Centralized / Locally Out-Sourced
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 342
Review Unions: Government Employee Union Membership Rate =
5x of Private Sector Union Membership Rate & Rising
� More government (federal / state / local) employees belong to
unions (8 million) than did private sector employees
(7 million) in 2009.
� Government employee union membership rate of 37% is 5x
higher than private sector employee union membership rate of 7%
in 2009.
� Private sector union membership rate declined 180 basis points to
7% in 2009 from 9% in 2000, while government employee union
membership rate rose 50 basis points 37.4% in 2009 from 36.9%
in 2000.
www.kpcb.com
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
343
Review Unions: Union Membership Rates by Industry –
Government = 37% Unionized vs. Private Sector’s 2-22%
Union Membership Rates by Industry, 2000 - 2009 2009 Union Members (000)
40%
Government
8,407
Transportation & Utilities
1,043
Union Membership Rate (%)
30%
20%
10%
Construction
Manufacturing
Information
Mining
Education & Health
Wholesale & Retail
Leisure
826
1,257
275
58
1,664
1,056
403
Other
154
Business Services
379
0%
Finance
138
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
www.kpcb.com
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 344
1
Focus on
Expenses
Restructure Social Security
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid
Reform
Entitlement
Programs
Focus on
Operating
Efficiency
Review Federal Wages & Benefits
Review Government Pension Plan Characteristics
& Compare with Private Sector Plans
Review Role of Unions
Review Government Cost Structure &
Consider Reducing Federal Headcount
Determine if There are Non-Core ‘Business Lines’
That Can Be Centralized / Locally Out-Sourced
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
345
Consider Reducing Federal Headcount
� Federal government headcount (ex. military) grew by
56,000 (or 2%) in 2008 and another 107,000 (or 3%) in
2009, while private sector unemployment rose to 10%
from 5% in 2007 and private sector headcount fell 1% in
2008 and 6% in 2009.
www.kpcb.com
. Source: Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 346
Federal Headcount Has Risen Over Past Five Years and
Is Above Trendline Level
Federal Civilian Headcount & Share of Total Employment, 1988 - 2009
Federal Civilian Full-Time Equivalent Employees
(000)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Federal Civilian Full-Time Equivalent Employees
% Share of Total Employment (right axis)
Federal Civilian Headcount Linear Trendline
~300K
Potential
Headcount
Reduction
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
% of Total Employment
0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
0.0%
www.kpcb.com
Data source: BEA (1988-2009).
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
347
Reduce Headcount: Mathematical Illustration on Reducing Federal Headcount
– Could Save Up to $275 Billion Over Next 10 Years, or 4% of Total Deficit
Scenario Analysis on Potential Federal Headcount Reduction & Impact on Budget Deficits
Headcount
Savings ($B) For USA Inc. Over
Reduction
F2009 F2010-19E F2010-85E (000)
Scenario 1
-- Trim Headcount by 1% $2 $17 $44 20
% of Budget Deficits 0% 0% 0%
Scenario 2
-- Trim Headcount by 5% $11 $91 $219 98
% of Budget Deficits 1% 1% 1%
Scenario 3
-- Trim Headcount by 10% $23 $183 $439 195
% of Budget Deficits 2% 3% 3%
Scenario 4 - Trendline*
-- Trim Headcount by 15% $34 $274 $658 293
% of Budget Deficits 2% 4% 4%
Note: Federal fiscal year ends in September. *Based on 20-year trend line, federal civilian headcount would have been 15% below actual levels.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 348
1
Focus on
Expenses
Restructure Social Security
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid
Reform
Entitlement
Programs
Focus on
Operating
Efficiency
Review Federal Wages & Benefits
Review Government Pension Plan Characteristics
& Compare with Private Sector Plans
Review Role of Unions
Review Government Cost Structure &
Consider Reducing Federal Headcount
Determine if There are Non-Core ‘Business Lines’
That Can Be Centralized / Locally Out-Sourced
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
349
Local Outsourcing/Consolidation: Improve Efficiency of Public Services
Through Automation / Scale / Flexibility
1. Automation – Government agencies cannot afford to perform manual
routine-based processes that can be replaced more efficiently by
technology.
2. Scale – Consolidation of non-core processes across agencies or
outsource non-core processes to local companies can deliver scale
efficiencies.
3. Flexibility – Outsourced labor enables temporary employment in
situations where hiring full-time workers would be costly and
unnecessary.
Sources: Adam Frisch, Morgan Stanley Research.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 350
Local Outsourcing/Consolidation: Proven to Be Viable Cost-Cutting
Measures for State / Local Governments
Automation
Years Public Sector Details
2002-2010
1993-2010
Missouri State
Government
Port Authority of
New York and
New Jersey
Total Cost
Saving ($)
As % of
Total
Budget 1
As % of
Program
Budget 1
Digitized State Medicaid health record ~87MM -- --
E-ZPass (electronic toll collection) can process
2.5x to 3x more vehicles per lane than toll
attendants
-- -- --
2003
Pennsylvania
State Government
Consolidated office supplies + computer
procurement
~$30MM -- --
Scale
2002-2004
2004-2005
Dept.
Management
Services, FL
Health and
Human Services
Commission, TX
Outsourced HR and supporting IT system to
local contractors
Outsourced HR, payroll and enterprise service
center to private vendors
~173MM 0.3% 11.5%
~1B 0.8% 5.0%
Flexibility
2010 Maywood, CA
2005
American Red
Cross
Outsourced police force to county sheriff in an
effort to avoid bankruptcy
Set up a Family Assistance Hotline within 10
days via an outsourcer (vs. 3-6 months doing it
in-house)
~3.7MM 25% 50.7%
-- -- --
Note: 1) Annual Budget of the year when outsourcing program started. Sources: HR Outsourcing in Government Organizations, The Conference Board; Outsourcing
Methods & Case Studies, 2009; Maywood, CA data per The Economist. PA state government data per Ed Rendell, Governor of Pennsylvania. ) E-ZPass per E-
Zpass New Jersey Customer Service Center; Missouri Medicaid case study per ACS; American Red Cross per Tholons, Government Sector Outsourcing.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 351
� Focus on Operating Efficiency –
Policy Options From National Commission on Fiscal
Responsibility and Reform Co-Chairs’ Proposal
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 352
Focus on Operating Efficiency: Illustrative Policy Options From the Report of
the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform
Illustrative Policy Options
Eliminate 250,000 non-defense service and staff augmentee contractors
Deficit Reduction
in F2015E
$18 billion
Eliminate all earmarks 1 $16
Freeze federal salaries, bonuses, and other compensation at non-
Defense agencies for three years
$15
Cut the federal workforce by 10% (2-for-3 replacement rate) $13
Create a Cut-and-Invest Committee charged with trimming waste and
targeting investment
$11
Slow the growth of foreign aid $5
Other 2 $22
Total Deficit Reduction F2015E
$100 billion
Note: 1) an earmark is a legislative (especially congressional) provision that directs approved funds to be spent on specific projects, or that directs specific
exemptions from taxes or mandated fees. 2) Other includes eliminate NASA funding for commercial spaceflight, terminate low-priority Army Corps of Engineers
programs, sell excess federal property, reduce congressional & White House budgets by 15%, reduce unnecessary printing costs and more. Source: National
Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, “The Moment of Truth: Report of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform,” 12/1/10.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 353
What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
1
2
Focus on
Expenses
Focus on
Revenues
Reform
Entitlement
Programs
Drive Sustainable
Economic
Growth
Focus on
Operating
Efficiency
Consider
Changing Tax
Policies
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 354
Focus on Revenues –
Drive Sustainable Economic Growth + Change Tax Policies
2
Focus on
Revenues
Drive Sustainable
Economic
Growth
Consider
Changing Tax
Policies
Invest in Technology / Infrastructure / Education
Increase / Improve Employment
Improve Competitiveness
Review Tax Rates
Reduce Subsidies / Tax Expenditures*/
Broaden Tax Base
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Tax subsidies / expenditures are losses to the U.S. Treasury from granting certain deductions, exemptions, or credits (such
as those on mortgage interest payments and employer-sponsored health insurance payments) to specific categories of taxpayers.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 355
GDP Growth =
Biggest Driver of Federal Revenue Growth…& 85% Correlation
1940 – 2009 Historical Correlation Between USA Real GDP Y/Y
& Real Federal Receipts Y/Y = 85%
Real Federal Receipts Y/Y (%)
60%
40%
20%
0%
Real GDP Y/Y vs. Real Federal Receipts Y/Y
Linear Trendline (y=2.77x-0.0438, R^2=0.73)
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Real GDP Y/Y (%)
2010E – 2019E
If Real
GDP
Y/Y is
Real Federal
Revenue
Could Grow…
5% 7%
4 5
3 2
2 0
1 -2
0 -4
-1 -7
-2 -9
-3 -11
-4 -13
-5 -16
Current Consensus
GDP Forecasts
-20%
www.kpcb.com
Data source: White House Office of Management & Budget (1940 – 2009).
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 356
It’s Easy to Gripe About USA Inc.’s High Expense Levels…
That Said, High Expenses Could be Covered by High Revenue
� There are two primary drivers of USA Inc.’s revenue: 1) GDP growth and 2)
related tax levies on consumers and businesses.
� To bring its income statement mechanically to break-even for 2009 (excluding onetime
charges), USA Inc. would have needed to raise individual income tax rates by
~2x across-the-board to an average of ~26-30% (from ~13%) of gross income. 1 This
certainly seems draconian. And a tax increase of this nature would surely have a
significant negative impact on USA’s GDP growth as consumers would have far less
disposable income to buy goods and services.
� This brings us to a key element of USA’s financial challenges – the need to drive
economic (GDP) AND related job growth. This is not easy. A material portion of GDP
growth over the past few decades was driven by rising consumption aided by rising
leverage and we have now entered a period of de-leveraging.
� Stronger economic growth would be hugely beneficial for USA Inc.’s revenues. But
the legacy of the financial crisis – severe housing imbalances and the need to
complete the long process of writing off private mortgage debt – means that the US
recovery will probably remain slow for at least several years. The silver lining: A
booming global economy should provide a modest lift to US growth.
www.kpcb.com
Note: 1) USA Inc.’s F2009 revenue shortfall was $997B (excluding one-time discretionary spending items). F2009 total
income tax receipts from individuals were $915B. As a result, if one were to raise individual income tax rates alone to achieve
financial break-even, one would have to more than double individual income tax rates across-the-board.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 357
Drive Growth: If Real GDP Grows 0.1 Percentage Point Faster Than Current
CBO Projection For F2011-F2020E, the Budget Deficit Could Shrink by 5%
Without Other Policy Changes
� CBO analysis shows that for every 0.1 percentage point (pps) increase in real GDP annual
growth rate above CBO’s baseline estimate for F2011-F2020E, USA Inc.’s revenue (driven
by taxes) could be $247 billion higher, spending could be $41 billion lower (driven by
reduced welfare spending) and the budget deficit could be reduced by $288 billion, or 5%.
F2011-F2020E Impact on USA Inc.’s
CBO’s baseline
assumption for annual
real GDP growth
What if real GDP
grows faster than
CBO’s forecast by…
Revenue
($B / %)
Spending
($B / %)
Deficit
Reduction
($B / %)
0.1 pps
+$247
+1%
-$41
--%
-$288
-5%
2.1% F2011E
4.4% F2012-14E
2.4% F2015-20E
0.5 pps
1 pps
+$1,235
+3%
+$2,470
+6%
-$205
--%
-$410
-1%
-$1,440
-23%
-$2,880
-46%
2 pps
+$4,940
+13%
-$820
-2%
-$5,760
-92%
www.kpcb.com
Note: pps is percentage point(s). $ amount and % changes in revenue / spending / deficit are over the entire F2011-F2020E
period. Source: CBO, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020,” 8/10.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 358
How Much Would Real GDP Need to Grow to Drive USA Inc. to Break-Even
Without Policy Changes? 6-7% in F2012E-F2014E & 4-5% in F2015-
F2020E…Well Above 40-Year Average of 3%
8%
CBO’s Baseline Real GDP Growth vs. Required Real GDP
Growth for a Balanced Budget Between F2011E and F2020E
6%
Real GDP Y/Y Growth (%)
4%
2%
0%
2009 2011E 2013E 2015E 2017E 2019E
-2%
-4%
Real GDP Annual Growth (CBO Baseline Forecast)
Real GDP Annual Growth Needed to Eliminate Fiscal Deficit
1970-2009 Average Real GDP Growth
www.kpcb.com
Source: CBO, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020,” 8/10.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
359
It’s Highly Unlikely That Annual Real GDP Can Grow Faster Than 6%...
It Happened Only 8 Times in Past 60 Years and
Was Always Linked to a Cyclical Bounce Back
10%
CBO’s Baseline Real Annual GDP Growth vs. Required Real Annual GDP Growth for a
Balanced Budget Between F2011E and F2020E in Historical Context (1950-2020E)
8%
Real GDP Y/Y Growth (%)
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010E 2020E
Real GDP Annual Growth (Historical)
Real GDP Annual Growth (CBO's Baseline Forecast)
Real GDP Annual Growth Needed to Eliminate Fiscal Deficit
www.kpcb.com
Source: CBO, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020,” 8/10.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 360
USA Consumers =
Biggest Demand Driver For GDP Growth, Until 2007
8%
Personal Consumption’s Contribution to Real GDP Growth, 1950 - 2009
6%
Real GDP Y/Y Growth (%)
4%
2%
0%
-2%
Real GDP Y/Y Growth
Personal Consumption Expenditure's Contribution to Real GDP Growth
-4%
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
www.kpcb.com
Source: BEA.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
361
Beginning in 2007, Wealth Destruction + High Unemployment Forced Consumers
to Save Again, Potentially Reducing Short-Term Demand for Goods & Services
3% average annual GDP growth (1981 - 2007) was helped as the average USA consumer:
1) Increased personal consumption as percent of GDP to 71% from 62%;
2) Decreased personal savings rate to 2% of disposable income from 11%;
Beginning in 2007, things changed as:
1) The average US consumer experienced a material decline in the value of his / her largest
investment assets (real estate and equities) from 2007 to 2009 when peak-to-trough
valuations for USA residential real estate declined 30% and the S&P 500 declined 56%;
2) Unemployment rose to 10% in 2009 / 2010 from 30-year trough of 4% in 1999, creating
uncertainty regarding future personal income levels;
3) Personal savings rate increased to 6% in 2009 / 2010 of disposable income from 2% in 2007,
as uncertainty grows and appetite for consumption ebbs;
All in, the key driver of US GDP growth – the US consumer’s ability to spend – is severely
constrained in the short term as he / she aims to rebuild savings and contain
spending. This raises the question – ‘How fast can US GDP grow annually over the
next ten years?’ Determining ways to drive GDP (and related job growth) is crucial…
www.kpcb.com
Source: Residential real estate decline based on CQ1:07 to CQ1:09 changes in S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. GDP
growth & composition / personal savings rate per BEA. Unemployment rate per BLS.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 362
Economic Policy–Short-Term vs. Long-Term
• Economic theory + experience of the Great Depression suggest
government can use fiscal policy (increase direct spending +
investment) to offset near-term shortfalls in private demand.
• In the long term, USA Inc. cannot sustain higher levels of direct
spending / investment without crowding out private consumption /
investment.
• Therefore, USA Inc. should prioritize and allocate available
resources to stimulate growth in productivity + employment, which
drive long-term GDP growth.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
363
Improving Employment, Productivity, & Hours Worked Are Source of
Sustainable Long-Term GDP Growth
USA Long-Term
GDP Growth 1
(1970-2009)
2.83%
Productivity Growth
1.53%
DRIVEN BY:
Technology / Infrastructure
Education (Labor Quality)
Other (Total Factor Productivity)
Employment Growth
1.53%
DRIVEN BY:
Unemployment Rate
Labor Force Growth
Hours Worked
Per Worker
-0.22%
Has Been Consistent
At ~39-40 Hours per Week
Note: 1) all growth numbers are rounded average annual growth rates and are adjusted for inflation. 2.83% is the average annual GDP growth rate from 1970 to
2009, per BEA. Labor force growth of 1.53% is the average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2009, per BLS. Hours worked per worker per OECD. Productivity
growth of 1.53% is calculated by subtracting employment growth and hours worked per worker growth from real GDP growth. Average annual growth rate of 1.53%
is roughly in line with other estimates such as Dale W. Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho, Kevin J. Stiroh, “Growth of U.S. Industries and Investments in Information Technology
and Higher Education” <http://www.nber.org/chapters/c10627>
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 364

Focus on Productivity & Employment Growth,
Each of Which Accounts for ~50% of Long-Term Real GDP Growth
� Investments in Technology / Infrastructure / Education Boost Productivity.
� Newer technology improves efficiency of communication and lowers costs of
providing goods and services.
� Better infrastructure reduces transportation costs for input and output materials
� Better education improves general labor quality and enables specialization for
more efficiency.
� Removing Restrictions / Uncertainties in Various Regulations Can
Stimulate Private Employment.
� Immigration does not reduce employment opportunities for US-born workers,
per Federal Reserve study in 8/10.
� Removing tax / regulatory uncertainty could help create hiring incentives for
private industries.
� Hours Worked per Worker Have Remained Steady at ~39-40 Hours per
Week From 1970 to 2009 and Will Likely Remain Steady.
www.kpcb.com
Source: OECD, Dale W. Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho, Kevin J. Stiroh, “Growth of U.S. Industries and Investments in Information
Technology and Higher Education” http://www.nber.org/chapters/c10627, Federal Reserve.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 365
2
Focus on
Revenues
Drive Sustainable
Economic
Growth
Invest in Technology / Infrastructure / Education
Increase / Improve Employment
Improve Competitiveness
Consider
Changing Tax
Policies
Review Tax Rates
Reduce Subsidies / Tax Expenditures*/
Broaden Tax Base
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
366
Technology + Infrastructure + Education Investments
Drove ~90% of Labor Productivity Growth for Past ~30 Years
Sources of USA Average Labor Productivity Growth, 1977-2000
2.5%
Annual Productivity Growth
2.21%
Average Annual Growth Rate (%)
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
1.13% 1.28%
Technology
Investment
Infrastructure &
Other Investment
Education (Labor
Quality)
Other (Total Factor
Productivity)
-0.5%
www.kpcb.com
1977-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000
Note: Total Factor Productivity is the portion of output not explained by the amount of inputs used in production.
Source: Dale W. Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho, Kevin J. Stiroh, “Growth of U.S. Industries and Investments in Information
Technology and Higher Education” <http://www.nber.org/chapters/c10627>
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 367
However, USA Inc. Has Increasingly Allocated Resources Away from
Productive Technology + Infrastructure + Education Investment / Spending
Toward Less-Productive Entitlement Program Spending
USA Real Federal Productive vs. Less-Productive Spending*, 1970-2009
100%
% Share of Total Federal Spending
80%
60%
40%
20%
Productive
(Investment / Spending on
Defense, Education,
Infrastructure, Technology…)
Less-Productive
(Spending on Entitlement
and Interest Payments)
0%
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Total spending excludes one-time items (such as TARP / GSE / ARRA) for F2008 / F2009 data.
Data source: White House Office of Management & Budget (1970-2009).
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 368
Drive Growth: Technology
Technology Improves Efficiency of Communication
and Lowers Costs of Providing Goods and Services
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
369
Technology Has Driven Significant Wealth & Job Creation
S&P 500 Sector Market Value Share, 1995 – 2010
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Information Technology 9% 12% 12% 18% 29% 21% 18% 14% 18% 16% 15% 15% 17% 15% 20% 19%
Financials 13 15 17 15 13 17 18 20 21 21 21 22 18 13 15 16
Consumer Staples 13 13 12 11 7 8 8 9 11 10 9 9 10 13 12 12
Health Care 11 10 11 12 9 14 14 15 13 13 13 12 12 15 12 11
Energy 9 9 8 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 9 10 13 13 11 11
Industrials 13 13 12 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 12 11 10 10
Consumer Discretionary 13 12 12 13 13 10 13 13 11 12 11 11 8 8 10 10
Utilities 5 4 3 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
Materials 6 6 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
Telecom Services 9 7 7 8 8 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3
S&P 500 Mkt Cap ($T) $5 $6 $8 $10 $12 $12 $10 $8 $10 $11 $11 $13 $13 $8 $10 $11 $10
www.kpcb.com
Note: 2010 data as of 12/31/10. Source: FactSet, Bloomberg.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
370
But USA Inc. Has Steadily Scaled Back Investment in Technology R&D Since
the 1960s…the Good News is That Private Industry Has Picked Up Lots of
Slack, So Far
Total USA Technology Research & Development Spending as % of
GDP by Funding Source, 1953 – 2008
3%
Total Technology R&D Spending as % of GDP
2%
1%
0%
1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005
Other (Non-Profit
/ University /
Other
Government)
Private Industry
Federal
Government
www.kpcb.com
Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators, 2008.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
371
For GDP Growth & Job Creation, It’s Key for Private Industry to Remain
Incentivized to Invest in R&D
� As we contemplate our future, we must accept the fact that many of the assumptions under
which business operated for the past 50 years no longer hold true…If we are committed to
investing in ideas to improve – not just maintain – what we have and what we know, the United
States will do more than just recover from this recession. We will emerge, once again, as a
competitive, global powerhouse…Innovation…accrues to countries in proportion to the quality
and rigor of their educational systems…The future of every nation will be shaped by new ideas
and creativity. These are the engines of future prosperity.
– Paul Otellini, CEO, Intel Corporation, 2/10/09
� Government targeted and ‘blue sky’ investment in technology (and defense) has led to crucial
technology inventions for America – such as ARPANET / Internet (1970s) and Global
Positioning System (1980s)..., which, on a net basis, have created jobs, wealth and related tax
revenue.
� Government investment in technology remains important, but, perhaps more important,
government must help incentivize private industry (via tax policies such as allowing companies
to repatriate overseas cash at lower tax rates 1 and other tools) to invest in domestic research &
development and to create jobs…and create a stable environment in which to operate.
Note: 1) See John Chambers and Safra Catz, “The Overseas Profits Elephant in the Room,” The Wall Street Journal, 10/20/10.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 372
Drive Growth: Infrastructure
Better Infrastructure Reduces Transportation Costs
For Input and Output Materials
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
373
Public Investment in Infrastructure Has Helped Drive GDP Growth
USA Real GDP and Public Investment in Infrastructure Average Y/Y Growth,
1950 -2007
Real GDP & Public Investment in Infrastructure
Average Y/Y Growth Rates (%)
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
1950 - 1979
4.1%
Y/Y Growth in
GDP
4.0%
Y/Y Growth in
Public
Investment in
Infrastructure
2.9%
. Y/Y Growth in
GDP
1980 - 2007
2.3%
Y/Y Growth in
Public
Investment in
Infrastructure
www.kpcb.com
Source: Political Economy Research Institute, “How Infrastructure Investments Support the U.S. Economy:
Employment, Productivity and Growth”, 1/09.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 374
But USA Inc.’s Investment in Infrastructure Has Been
Steadily Declining for Five Decades…
USA Inc. (Federal) Investment in Infrastructure as % of GDP, 1950 -2008
1.5%
USA Inc's Investment in Infrastructure as % of GDP
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
www.kpcb.com
Source: BEA.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
375
…Leading to Deteriorating Infrastructure in America and
Pent-Up Demand for Investment
American Society of Civil Engineers’ Report Card Grades for America’s
Infrastructure, 1988 vs. 2009
1988 2009
Aviation B- D
Bridges -- C
Dams -- D
Drinking Water B- D-
Energy -- D+
Hazardous Waste D D
Inland Waterways B D-
Levees -- D-
Rail -- C-
Roads C+ D-
School Buildings D D
Solid Waste C- C+
Transit C- D
Wastewater C D-
Overall USA Infrastructure G.P.A. C D
Cost to Improve -- $2.2T
Note: The first infrastructure grades were given by the National Council on Public Works Improvements in its report “Fragile Foundations: A Report on
America’s Public Works, released in February 1988.” Source: American Society of Civil Engineers, “2009 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure”.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 376
Drive Growth: Education
Better Education Improves General Labor Quality
and Enables Specialization For More Efficiency
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
377
Education = High Long-Term ROI* Investment
Each $1 of Government Spending Could Generate Up to $3 of Incremental Tax Return
USA Inc. Net Present Value (NPV) for an Individual** Obtaining Secondary / Higher Education, 2005
Public Net Present Value for an Individual Obtaining
Secondary or Higher Education
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
-$20,000
-$40,000
www.kpcb.com
$0
NPV = $32,257
ROI = 109%
Secondary Education
NPV = $100,119
ROI = 299%
Higher Education
Unemployment Effect
Social Insurance Tax
Revenues
Income Tax Revenues
Public Foregone Tax
Revenues
Public Direct Cost
Note: * ROI (return on investment) calculated as NPV of future incremental tax revenues divided by cost for
government to support an individual for education. **Limited to male samples, female samples tend to have a
lower public NPV. Source: OECD.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 378
While Government Spending on Education Increased 60% Over Past 50 Years, At
Margin, Government Spent More on Healthcare…
8%
USA Total Government Healthcare vs. Education Spending as % of GDP, 1960 – 2008
Spending as % of GDP
6%
4%
2%
3.7%
Total Government (Federal + State + Local) Spending on Health Care
Total Government (Federal + State + Local) Spending on Education
6.0%
0%
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
www.kpcb.com
Note: Total government spending on healthcare includes Medicare, Medicaid and other programs and total government
spending on education includes spending on pre-primary through tertiary education programs. Source: Dept. of
Education, Dept. of Health & Human Services.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 379
Despite Increased Government Spending, USA Education is Falling Behind –
Math / Science Tests Scores Well Below OECD Average
& Getting Worse Though Self Confidence Rising
USA Ranking Out of 30-34* OECD Countries
in PISA (Program for International Student Assessment for 15-Year Olds)
2000 / 2003 / 2006 / 2009
2000 2003 2006 2009
2000-2009
Trend
Mathematics 18 23 25 25 ���
Science 14 19 21 17 �
Reading 16 15 --** 14 �
Self
Confidence 1 2 1 1 -- �
Note: *30 OECD countries participated in 2000 / 2003 PISA, 34 OECD countries participated in 2006 / 2009 PISA. 1) Confidence is the self-perceived efficacy in
learning abilities (for year 2000); mathematical problem solving abilities (for year 2003) and scientific problem solving abilities (for year 2006). USA tied in
confidence ranking with Canada, Hungary, Slovakia, Switzerland and Liechtenstein in 2003 and tied with Poland and Canada in 2006. **2006 reading scores for
USA were rendered invalid because of a printing error in questionnaire instructions. Source: OECD.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 380
USA Student Achievement Rankings* in Mathematics / Science
Have Fallen vs. Other OECD Countries
Mathematics Ranking*
2000 2009
1 Japan S. Korea
2 S. Korea Finland
3 New Zealand Switzerland
4 Finland Japan
5 Australia Canada
6 Canada Netherlands
7 Switzerland New Zealand
8 UK Belgium
9 Belgium Australia
10 France Germany
11 Austria Estonia
12 Denmark Iceland
13 Iceland Denmark
14 Sweden Slovenia
15 Ireland Norway
16 Norway France
17 Czech Republic Slovakia
18 USA Austria
19 Germany Poland
20 Hungary Sweden
21 Spain Czech Republic
22 Poland UK
23 Italy Hungary
24 Portugal Luxembourg
25 Greece USA
26 Luxembourg Ireland
27 Mexico Portugal
28 Spain
29 Italy
30 Greece
31 Israel
32 Turkey
33 Chile
34 Mexico
www.kpcb.com
Science Ranking*
2000 2009
1 Korea Finland
2 Japan Japan
3 Finland S. Korea
4 UK New Zealand
5 Canada Canada
6 New Zealand Estonia
7 Australia Australia
8 Austria Netherlands
9 Ireland Germany
10 Sweden Switzerland
11 Czech Republic UK
12 France Slovenia
13 Norway Poland
14 USA Ireland
15 Hungary Belgium
16 Iceland Hungary
17 Belgium USA
18 Switzerland Czech Republic
19 Spain Norway
20 Germany Denmark
21 Poland France
22 Denmark Iceland
23 Italy Sweden
24 Greece Austria
25 Portugal Portugal
26 Luxembourg Slovak Republic
27 Mexico Italy
28 Spain
29 Luxembourg
30 Greece
31 Israel
32 Turkey
33 Chile
34 Mexico
Note: *USA ranking out of OECD countries in PISA (Program for International Student Assessment for 15-Year Olds). Source: OECD.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
381
USA Young Adults’ (25-34) Higher-Education* Penetration Significantly Lags
Behind Canada / Korea / Russia / Japan
Percentage of 25- to 34-Year-Olds with an Associate
Degree or Higher, 2007
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Percentage of 25- to 34-Year-Olds with an Associate Degree or Higher Among
OECD Countries, 2007
Brazil
Turkey
Czech Republic
Chile
Italy
Austria
Mexico
Portugal
Hungary
Germany
Greece
Poland
Slovenia
Iceland
OECD Average
Estonia
Switzerland
Luxembourg
Netherlands
UK
Spain
Finland
Sweden
Denmark
USA
Australia
Belgium
France
Israel
Norway
Ireland
New Zealand
Japan
Russia
Korea
Canada
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Higher education defined as post-secondary (college / university) education. Source: OECD.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 382
2
Focus on
Revenues
Drive Sustainable
Economic
Growth
Consider
Changing Tax
Policies
Invest in Technology / Infrastructure / Education
Increase / Improve Employment
Improve Competitiveness
Review Tax Rates
Reduce Subsidies / Tax Expenditures*/
Broaden Tax Base
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
383
Employment =
Key to Growth in Federal Revenue & Expenses
The deficit problem is exacerbated by the
business cycle.
A stagnant or declining job market means lower income (via tax
revenue) and higher outlays (via entitlement expenses) for USA Inc.
Unemployment
Tax
Revenue
Entitlement
Expenses
=
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 384
Though Entitlements Are Structural, Not a Cyclical Problem,
Entitlement Outlays Go Up with High Unemployment
Real Entitlement Spending Y/Y & Unemployment Rates (%)
Real Entitlement Spending Y/Y Growth & Unemployment Rates, 1962 - 2009
20%
Real Entitlement Spending Y/Y
Unemployment Rate
15%
10%
5%
0%
86% Correlation Between 1986 & 2009
-5%
-10%
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
www.kpcb.com
Note: Real spending adjusted for inflation. Fiscal year ends in September. Source: White House Office of Management &
Budget, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
385
Increase Employment –
High-Level Policy Options to Consider
Short-run options:
1) Payroll tax holiday and/or
2) Employment tax credit and/or
3) Job training and/or
4) Restore labor mobility by reducing housing imbalances
Medium- to long-run options:
1) Reduce employer health care costs and/or
2) Improve vocational training/education and/or
3) Encourage inward foreign direct investment, “onshoring”
which would increase domestic employment
www.kpcb.com
Source: Richard Berner, “Employment Prospects and Policies to Improve Them” (2/26/10), Morgan Stanley Research.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 386
Increase Employment: Structural Problems in USA Labor Force High
Healthcare Costs + Skills Mismatch + Labor Immobility
� Healthcare costs may be a barrier to hiring for employers
� Healthcare benefits = 8% of average total employee compensation; grew at 6.9%
CAGR from 1998 to 2008 compared with 4.5% CAGR in salaries.
� Healthcare benefits are fixed costs as they are paid on an annual per-worker basis
and do not vary with hours worked.
� As employers try to lower fixed costs to right-size to reduced revenue levels,
layoffs are the only way to reduce fixed healthcare costs.
� Skills mismatch may be a barrier to hiring for employers
� A large portion of the long-term unemployed may lack requisite skills.
� 14% of firms reported difficulty filling positions due to the lack of suitable talent, per
5/10 Manpower Research survey.
� Labor immobility resulting from the housing bust may be a barrier to hiring
� One in four homeowners are “trapped” because they owe more than their houses
are worth, so they cannot move to take new jobs – until they sell or walk away.
www.kpcb.com
Source: Richard Berner, “Why is US Employment So Weak” (7/23/10), Morgan Stanley Research.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
387
Increase Employment: Immigration Does Not Take Away Jobs in USA;
It Improves Productivity + Boosts Income per Worker
� Immigration = Positive Impact on USA Productivity & Income per Worker
� Immigration = Neutral Impact on Employment for U.S.-Born Workers
% Change in USA Productivity / Income per Worker / Employment for U.S.-Based Workers
In Response to an Inflow of Immigrants Equal to 1% of Employment
1.6
Immigration's Impact as % of
Employment / Income / Productivity
Increase
www.kpcb.com
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
-0.4
1 2 4 7 10
Years After Immigration
Productivity
Income per
Worker
Employment for
U.S.-Born Workers
Source: Giovanni Peri, “The Effect of Immigrants on U.S. Employment and Productivity,” 8/30/2010
Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco (FRBSF) Economic Letter 2010-26.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 388
2
Focus on
Revenues
Drive Sustainable
Economic
Growth
Consider
Changing Tax
Policies
Invest in Technology / Infrastructure / Education
Increase / Improve Employment
Improve Competitiveness
Review Tax Rates
Reduce Subsidies / Tax Expenditures*/
Broaden Tax Base
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
389
Without appropriate
government incentives in
Education / Technology /
Infrastructure / Employment,
USA Inc. may continue to
lose relative competitive
strength to other countries.
www.kpcb.com USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 390
Compared to 10 Years Ago, USA is Losing Competitiveness
at the Margin vs. Its Peers
� McKinsey conducted a study in 2010 that compares the USA with other
countries on 20 attributes related to economic fundamentals, business
climate, human capital and infrastructure. McKinsey compared current
status vs. status in 2000.
� We augmented the McKinsey study with 9 additional attributes across those
aforementioned areas as well as government spending metrics.
� Through this study, we found that America, relative to other countries, improved
on none of the 29 attributes, remained the same on 9 attributes (including
GDP per capita, public debt as % of GDP, public spending on healthcare, public
spending on education, growth in local innovation clusters, population &
demographic profile, retention of foreign-born talents, total healthcare spending
and cost-adjusted labor productivity) and deteriorated on 20 (including trade
surplus, national spending on R&D, industrial production, corporate tax rate,
business environment, FDI, tax incentives for R&D, number of patent
applications, availability of high-quality labor, higher education penetration,
telecom & transportation infrastructure, etc.).
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
391
USA Ranking High in Country Attractiveness Indicators
But Losing Share at the Margin…
Economic
Fundamentals
Government
Spending
US Relative Position
Key metrics Ten Years Ago Today Trend
Household consumption � � �
Household consumption growth � � �
GDP � � �
GDP per capita 2 � � �
Stock market capitalization � � �
Technology company market cap 2 � � �
Industrial production � � �
Trade as % of GDP � � �
Trade surplus 2 � � �
National spending on R&D � � �
Defense spending 2 � � �
Government public debt as % GDP 2 � � �
Public healthcare spending as % of GDP 2 � � �
Government surplus as % of GDP 2 � � �
Public expenditure on education � � �
� Top Ranked � Top Quartile � Average � Bottom Quartile
Source: 1) Growth and competitiveness in the United States: The role of its multinational companies,
www.kpcb.com
McKinsey & Company. 2) estimates based on data from IMF / OECD
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 392
…USA Ranking High in Country Attractiveness Indicators
But Losing Share at the Margin
US relative position
Business climate
Human capital
Infrastructure
Key metrics Ten Years Ago Today Trend
Statutory corporate tax rate � � �
Business environment � � �
FDI as % of GDP � � �
Growth of local innovation clusters � � �
Tax incentives for R&D � � �
Population and demographic profile � � �
Availability of high-quality labor � � �
Retention of foreign-born talent � � �
Cost-adjusted labor productivity � � �
Total healthcare spending per Capita 2 � � �
Higher education penetration 2 � � �
Number of patent applications � � �
Transportation � � �
Telecommunications � � �
www.kpcb.com
� Top Ranked � Top Quartile � Average � Bottom Quartile
Source: 1) Growth and competitiveness in the United States: The role of its multinational companies,
McKinsey & Company. 2) estimates based on data from IMF / OECD
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
393
USA’s Share of Global GDP Has Declined from 33% in 1985 to 24% in 2010,
While China / Brazil / Korea’s Shares Have Risen
100%
Share of World GDP, USA vs. China / Brazil / India, 1985 – 2010E
Rest of World
Share of World GDP (%)
80%
60%
40%
33%
1985-2010E
Largest Share Gainers
China +6% to 9%
Brazil +1% to 3%
Korea +1% to 2%
24%
20%
0%
USA
1985-2010E
Share Loss = -9%
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
www.kpcb.com
Note: Data are NOT adjusted for purchasing power parity. Source: IMF.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
394
2
Focus on
Revenues
Drive Sustainable
Economic
Growth
Consider
Changing Tax
Policies
Invest in Technology / Infrastructure / Education
Increase / Improve Employment
Improve Competitiveness
Review Tax Rates
Reduce Subsidies / Tax Expenditures*/
Broaden Tax Base
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
395
Simple Tax Math* – Big Across-the-Board Tax Rate Increases Would Be
Needed to Potentially Generate Meaningful Revenue Improvements
� Each one percentage point across-the-board tax rate increase would generate an
incremental $127 billion revenue for USA Inc. in F2010E 1 ...excluding any related
negative impact on spending / GDP growth, which is difficult to do…
Across-the-Board
Tax Rate Increase
Hypothetical Revenue Increase for
USA Inc. in F2010E ($ billions)
…Which Would Reduce
Estimated Losses in
F2010E by
1 Percentage Point $127 8%
2 Percentage
Points (pps)
$254 16%
3 pps $381 24%
4 pps $508 33%
5 pps $635 41%
10 pps $1,270 82%
Note: *The simple tax math presented here are pure mathematical illustrations – we simply calculated how big a broad-based tax rate increase (for
individual and corporate income, as well as payroll) would have to be for USA Inc. to financial break-even. These calculations are merely mechanical
illustrations and are not meant to portray realistic solutions. 1) Incremental dollar amount calculated as 1% of projected total personal & corporate
income, which historically has been at ~87% of GDP. Source: F2010E revenue & deficit per White House OMB, GDP per CBO.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 396
More Complex Tax Math: If Lower Brackets Excluded, Draconian Rate Hikes
Required to Attempt to Bring USA Inc. Budget Into Financial Balance
100%
Current Federal Income Tax Rates vs.
Rates Needed to Reduce Deficit to 3% of GDP in 10 Years
Federal Income Tax Rates (%)
80%
60%
40%
20%
Current Federal Income Tax Rates
Marginal Tax Rates Required to Balance USA Inc.'s Budget*
28% 28%
25% 25%
15% 15%
10% 10%
33%
72%
35%
77%
0%
www.kpcb.com
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5 Tier 6
Note: *The tax math presented here are pure mathematical illustrations – it is simply calculated to measure how much tax rates need to
increase (for the top two income brackets) to achieve a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3% by 2019E assuming a baseline budget path and relying on
personal income tax rate hikes alone. These calculations are merely mechanical illustrations and are not meant to portray realistic solutions.
Source: The Urban Institute (Desperately Seeking Revenue, By Altshuler, Lim and Williams, 1/5/2010.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 397
Pros + Cons of Tax Rate Hikes
� A more progressive income tax system could lower tax burden from
potential subsidy cuts and carbon taxes on the low-income population.
� Addressing income inequality may enhance perceived fairness – and
political chances – of comprehensive deficit measures.
� Across-the-board tax rate increases would hurt nearly everyone, but
especially lower-income taxpayers.
� Rate increases on upper brackets usually spur tax avoidance, and
revenues often fall short of targets.
� Rate increases, which discourage savings, amplify distortions in the
economy from tax subsidies, exclusions and tax expenditures, all of
which encourage consumption.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 398
Despite Multitudes of Tax Rate Changes, USA Inc.’s Tax Revenue as Percent
of GDP Remained Roughly Stable at 15-20% from 1960-2002
Federal Tax Receipts by Category as % of GDP, 1960 - 2009
25%
Individual Income Corporate Income Social Insurance Excise & Other
Federal Tax Receipts as % of GDP
20%
15%
10%
5%
50-year Trendline
0%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
www.kpcb.com
Source: White House OMB.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
399
2
Focus on
Revenues
Drive Sustainable
Economic
Growth
Invest in Technology / Infrastructure / Education
Increase / Improve Employment
Improve Competitiveness
Consider
Changing Tax
Policies
Review Tax Rates
Reduce Subsidies / Tax Expenditures*/
Broaden Tax Base
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
400
Mathematical Illustrations*
� 1) To eliminate F2010 deficits by increasing individual / corporate / payroll tax
rates across-the-board would require +12 percentage points of tax rate increase
(raising $1.4 trillion) – and would likely damage economic growth? or
� 2) To eliminate primary budget deficit** by F2019E by increasing top two tiers of
income tax rates would require moving marginal rates to 72% / 77% from 33% /
35% – also likely to damage growth and encourage tax avoidance? or
� 3) Broadening tax base could require reducing ‘tax expenditures’ and subsidies,
e.g., limiting deductions and subsidies for housing & healthcare?
Policy Options
Illustrating the Revenue Tradeoffs –
Changing Tax Rates vs. Broadening the Tax Base
� 1) A combination of somewhat higher rates and a broader tax base? and/or
� 2) Changing taxation of individual income to encourage saving / investment
rather than consumption (perhaps a value-added tax and/or carbon tax)? and/or
� 3) Changing taxation of corporate income to reflect global competition?
Note: *The simple tax math presented here are pure mathematical illustrations – we simply calculated how big a broad-based tax rate increase (for
individual and corporate income, as well as payroll) would have to be for USA Inc. to financial break-even. These calculations are merely mechanical
illustrations and are not meant to portray realistic solutions. **Primary budget deficit is the budget deficit excluding net interest payments.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 401
Changing USA Inc.’s Tax System Could Help
Rebalance the Economy & Reallocate Resources
� Though there would be adjustment costs, reducing subsidies and ‘tax
expenditures’ could broaden the tax base and collect more revenue, while
allowing income tax rates to stay low or go lower.
� The current system favors consumption, penalizes saving; a tax based on
consumption (or “value added”) could offset some of that penalty, though there
are risks and drawbacks.
� Subsidies create incentives to consume more health insurance and housing –
both account for 20% of GDP, vs. 11% in 1965 1 – and take resources from other
sectors like education, technology, infrastructure.
� A worldwide corporate tax system with a lower tax rate could reduce incentives
for companies to keep income offshore.
� A carbon tax could raise some additional revenue to reduce the deficit, while
encouraging sustainable economic development.
www.kpcb.com
Source: 1) per BEA and CMS.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 402
Changing Tax Policy to Broaden Tax Base: Subsidies + Tax Expenditures =
70% of USA Inc.’s Cash Flow Deficit
F2009 Subsidies & Tax Expenditures & Deficit ($B)
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc.’s Deficit vs. Aggregate Subsidies and Tax Expenditures*, F2009
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
$1,413B
F2009 Deficit
$981B*
$673B*
$308B*
F2009 Subsidies & Tax
Expenditures
Some tax expenditures favor
consumption...
Such as tax exemption on
employer contributions to health
insurance & deductibility of
mortgage interest on owneroccupied
homes…
…But others favor saving,
investment, and growth
Such as tax exemptions /
deductibility on capital gains /
dividends / pension contributions
& savings / accelerated
depreciation of equipment…
Note: *Each foregone revenue estimate assumes all other parts of the Tax Code remain unchanged during F2009. Aggregate tax subsidies presented here is simply
the sum of individual estimates. In reality, the aggregate estimate would be different if tax subsidies were changed simultaneously because of potential interactions
among provisions.
Source: White House OMB, “Analytical Perspective – Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2011.”
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 403
Raising Revenue by Reducing Tax Expenditures & Subsidies: Examples
• Reducing the biggest tax expenditures and subsidies could net $1.7
trillion in additional revenue over the next decade, per CBO and the
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:
– Reduce the tax exclusion for health insurance or replace with a credit
– Cap the deduction for state and local taxes
– Gradually reduce the mortgage interest deduction or change to a credit
– Limit the tax benefit of other deductions, e.g., charitable contributions
• Some subsidies encourage saving or investment…and cutting them
could mean short-term revenue gain but a net loss over time.
Examples:
– Favorable taxation of capital gains, dividends, and pension contributions
– Exclude investment income from life insurance and annuities in taxable income
– Accelerated depreciation or expensing of capital equipment outlays
www.kpcb.com
Source: Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Budget Options Volume 1: Health Care and Volume 2, 2009; Committee for a
Responsible Federal Budget, Let’s Get Specific: Tax Expenditures (October 2010)
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 404
USA’s Unbalanced Economy –
Personal Consumption (Driven in Part by Healthcare) =
71% of GDP vs. 62% From 1950 To 1980…
Personal Consumption as % of GDP, 1950 - 2009
75%
Personal Consumption as % of GDP
Personal Consumption as % of GDP
70%
65%
60%
Personal Consumption (ex. Healthcare) as % of GDP
1950-1980 Trend line for Personal Consumption as % of GDP
55%
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
www.kpcb.com
Note: Personal consumption includes household consumption of all goods and services. Source: BEA, Federal Reserve.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
405
…USA’s Unbalanced Economy –
National Savings (Personal + Corporate + Government Savings) =
-3% of GDP, vs. 10% From 1950 To 1980
USA Net Saving as % of GDP, 1950 - 2009
16%
USA Net National Saving as % of GDP
12%
8%
4%
0%
1950-1980 Trend line for Net Saving as % of GDP
-4%
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
www.kpcb.com
Note: National savings equal the aggregate savings by household, corporate and government sectors.
Source: BEA, Federal Reserve.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 406
Current Tax Policies Help Spur Consumption –
USA’s Taxes on Consumption of Goods & Services Lowest Among Peers
Taxes on Consumption as % of GDP, 2007
20%
16%
12%
8%
4%
0%
Taxes on Consumption of Goods & Services as % of GDP Among OECD
Countries, 2007
USA
Japan
Switzerland
Canada
Australia
Korea
Mexico
Spain
Luxembourg
UK
Germany
France
OECD Average
Belgium
Italy
Czech Republic
Ireland
Netherlands
New Zealand
Slovak Republic
Turkey
Greece
Austria
Norway
Finland
Sweden
Poland
Portugal
Hungary
Denmark
Iceland
www.kpcb.com
Source: OECD, 2009 database.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
407
America’s Resources Allocated to Housing + Healthcare Nearly Doubled as a Percent
of GDP Since 1965, While Household and Government Savings Fell Dramatically
25%
20%
Healthcare + Housing Spending vs. Net Household +
Government Savings as % of GDP, 1965-2009
Housing + Healthcare Spending as % of GDP
Net Household + Government Savings as % of GDP
20%
As % of GDP
15%
10%
5%
11%
7%
0%
-5%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-10%
-9%
www.kpcb.com
Note: Housing includes purchase, rent and home improvement. Government savings occur when government runs a surplus.
Source: BEA, CMS via Haver Analytics.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
408
USA Income Taxes Higher, Consumption Taxes Lower Than OECD Peers
Government Tax Revenue as % of GDP, USA vs. OECD Average, 2007
Tax Type USA OECD Average
Variance
(USA – OECD)
Individual Income Taxes 10.8% 9.4% 1.4%
Property Taxes 3.1 1.9 1.2
Other 4.7 5.0 -0.3
Corporate Income Taxes 3.1 3.9 -0.8
Social Security Taxes 6.6 9.1 -2.5
Value Added Taxes -- 6.5 -6.5
Total 28.3% 35.8% -7.5%
www.kpcb.com
Source: OECD Tax Database.
USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider?
409
Tax Policy Options From Report of the National Commission on
Fiscal Responsibility and Reform
� Consolidate the tax code into three individual income rates (15% / 25% / 35%) and one
corporate income rate (26%)
� Eliminate the complex tax codes such as AMT 1 , PEP 2 , and Pease 3
� Triple standard deduction to $30,000 ($15,000 for individuals)
� Repeal state & local tax deduction and miscellaneous itemized deductions
� Limit mortgage deduction to exclude 2 nd residences, home equity loans, and mortgages
over $500,000
� Limit charitable deduction with floor at 2% of Adjusted Gross Income
� Cap income tax exclusion for employer-provided healthcare at the amount of the actuarial
value of Federal Employees Health Benefits Plan (FEHBP) standard option
� Permanently extend the research tax credit for businesses
� Eliminate and modify several business tax expenditures (domestic production deduction /
LIFO 4 method of accounting / energy tax preferences for the oil and gas industry /
depreciation rules)
� International tax reform including a territorial system 5
Note: 1) AMT is the Alternative Minimum Tax; 2) PEP is Personal Exemption Phase-out designed to eliminate personal income exemptions for high earners; 3) Pease is a similar
phase-out, but instead of applying to personal exemption, it applies to most of the itemized deductions of a taxpayer’s claims (mortgage interest, charitable gifts, state & local taxes
paid, etc.); Pease is named after Representative Donald Pease (D-OH) who pushed for its enactment in 1990. 4) LIFO is ‘Last In, First Out’ which tend to reduce corporations’ income
taxes in times of inflation. 5) A territorial tax system is a tax system that taxes only income that is created within the borders of a specific territory (usually a country). Source: National
Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, “The Moment of Truth: Report of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform,” 12/1/10. Note that the Report also
identified two other scenarios called the ‘The Zero Plan’ which eliminates all tax expenditures and ‘Tax Reform Trigger’ which forces Congress to undertake comprehensive tax reform
by 2012 by raising taxes for each year Congress fails to act.
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USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 412
Consequences of Inaction
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USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction
413
To Take a Step Back…
� We Asked the Question
�
How would public shareholders view USA Inc.?
� What Have We Found?
�
USA Inc.’s finances – short-term and long-term, income statement
and balance sheet – are challenged. Management’s policies have
created incentives to invest in healthcare, housing, and current
consumption rather than in productive capital, education, and
technology – the tools needed to compete in the global marketplace.
www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 414
Consequences of Inaction – Investor Perspective
� Short Term, No Problem Yet
�
Global bond investors, in part, have looked past USA Inc.’s
deteriorating financials because growth, inflation, and Fed
purchases matter more, and because income statements and
balance sheets of many other developed countries (such as
Greece / Spain / Portugal / Ireland) are worse.
� Long Term, Consequences of Inaction Could Be Severe
�
If USA Inc.’s “managers” and “board” continue to ignore rising
unfunded entitlement spending, investors could eventually demand
a higher return to lend money to USA Inc. – leading to rising bond
yields / higher borrowing costs for USA Inc. At some point, USA
Inc.’s currency could also weaken significantly.
Source: Richard Berner, “America’s Fiscal Train Wreck” (7/2/2009), Morgan Stanley Research.
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USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction
415
For Perspective, USA Inc.'s 55% Public Debt as % of GDP (2009) is in Middle of Pack
When Compared with ‘Top 25’ Global Peers, Though Rising to 90% ‘Warning’ Level*
Rank
Country
2009 Net Debt
Outstanding ($B)
Y/Y
As % of Net Debt as % of GDP As % of 2009 Budget As % of 2009
World
Total 2009 2005
05-09
Change
2009 GDP
($B)
Note: *Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff observed from 3,700 historical annual data points from 44 countries that the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth
is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. . We
note that while Reinhart and Rogoff’s observations are based on ‘gross debt’ data, in the U.S., debt held by the public is closer to the European countries’ definition of government
gross debt. For more information, see Reinhart and Rogoff, “Growth in a Time of Debt,” 1/10. Pps is percentage points. Source: IMF, Business Intelligence Monitor .
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USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 416
Y/Y
World
Total
Surplus /
Deficit ($B)
World Gross
Deficit
Unemployment
Rate
1 Japan $9,149 12% 26% 181% 162% 19% $5,049 -5% 9% -960 33% 5% +1
2 Italy 2,434 0 7 116 106 11 2,090 -5 4 -0 -- 8 +1
3 Greece 374 8 1 111 99 12 338 -2 1 -27 1 9 +2
4 Belgium 454 0 1 98 92 6 461 -3 1 -1 0 8 +1
5 France 2,028 5 6 77 66 11 2,635 -2 5 -105 4 9 +2
6 Germany 2,423 1 7 75 68 7 3,235 -5 6 -16 1 7 +0
7 Austria 263 2 1 70 64 6 374 -4 1 -5 0 5 +1
8 India 854 -3 2 69 80 -12 1,243 6 2 31 -- -- --
9 UK 1,444 3 4 66 42 24 2,198 -5 4 -49 2 7 +2
10 Canada 870 -5 3 66 70 -4 1,319 -3 2 44 -- 8 +2
11 Netherlands 503 -1 1 64 52 12 790 -4 1 4 -- 4 +1
12 Argentina 178 -7 1 59 59 0 301 1 1 14 -- -- --
13 USA 7,811 23 23 55 37 17 14,266 -2 25 -1,438 50 9 +3
14 Poland 223 -11 1 53 47 6 423 2 1 26 -- -- --
15 Spain 757 20 2 53 43 10 1,438 -4 2 -125 4 18 +7
16 Norway 187 -17 1 51 45 6 369 -2 1 38 -- 3 +1
17 Sweden 175 -5 1 44 51 -7 398 -4 1 9 -- 8 +2
18 Brazil 650 -6 2 44 44 0 1,482 0 3 40 -- -- --
19 Switzerland 212 5 1 44 53 -9 484 -1 1 -10 0 4 +1
20 Denmark 125 7 0 40 38 3 308 -5 1 -8 0 3 +2
21 Turkey 219 -14 1 37 52 -15 594 -5 1 36 -- -- --
22 Australia 309 -3 1 34 36 -3 920 1 2 8 -- 6 +1
23 Venezuela 95 11 0 27 27 0 353 -3 1 -9 0 -- --
24 China 609 7 2 13 18 -5 4,758 9 8 -38 1 -- --
25 Russia 92 -15 0 7 14 -7 1,255 -8 2 17 -- -- --
Top 1-25 $32,438 0% 94% 55% 52% 3% $47,081 -3% 81% $2,790 97% 7% +1
Global 34,632 8 100 68 66 2 57,937 -2 100 2,885 100 7 +2
Y/Y
(pps)
On a Net Worth Basis, USA Inc. Also Sits in Middle of Pack vs. Western
European Peer Governments
Illustrative Estimates* of Government Net Worth, 2009
Estimated Government Net Worth as % of GDP
400%
0%
-400%
-800%
-1200%
-1600%
Better Than USA
Worse Than USA
Cost of Ageing
Structural Deficit
Initial Debt Level
Italy
Germany
Belgium
France
Portugal
USA
UK
Spain
Ireland
Greece
Note: *Estimates of government net worth depends heavily on underlying assumptions such as projections for GDP, demographics, policy changes, etc. Net worth
estimates may differ from U.S. Dept. of Treasury’s data (used in earlier slides). For more details on underlying assumptions, please refer to Morgan Stanley
Research’s Global Outlook piece “Sovereign Subjects: Ask Not Whether Governments Will Default, But How,” 8/25/10.
Source: Arnaud Mares, Morgan Stanley Research.
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USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 417
Combined With US Dollar’s Reserve Currency Status,
Investors Still Prefer USA Inc.’s Debt, For Now
Global Aggregate Foreign Exchange Reserves by Currency, 1999 – 2010*
Global Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$B)
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
Other Currencies
Euros
US Dollars
US Dollars' Share of Total
100%
75%
50%
25%
US Dollars' Share of Total
$0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
0%
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Note: 2010 data are preliminary and as of CQ3. Source: IMF.
USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 418
However, in Longer Term, Credit Rating Agencies Have Begun to Worry
About USA Inc.’s Debt Affordability
� On balance, we believe that the ratings of all large Aaa governments [including
USA Inc.] remain well positioned, although their ‘distance-to-downgrade’ has
in all cases substantially diminished…Growth alone will not resolve an
increasingly complicated debt equation…Preserving debt affordability at levels
consistent with Aaa ratings will invariably require fiscal adjustments of a
magnitude that, in some cases, will test social cohesion. 1
� - Pierre Cailleteau
� Managing Director of Sovereign Risk at Moody’s, 3/16/2010
� …if there are not offsetting measures to reverse the deterioration in negative
fundamentals in the U.S., the likelihood of a negative outlook over the next two
years will increase. 2
� Sarah Carlson,
Senior Analyst at Moody's, 1/14/2011
www.kpcb.com
Sources: 1) Bloomberg, The New York Times; 2) The Wall Street Journal
USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction
419
Treasury Swap Spread 1 Turned Negative For First Time in History 2 –Now
Cheaper for Some Private Companies to Borrow than USA Government
160
10-Year Treasury Swap Spreads & Federal Budget Deficit / Surplus, 1988 – 2010
4%
10yr Treasury Swap Spread (bps)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
USA Federal Budget Surplus / Deficit as % of
GDP (%)
10y Treasury Swap Spreads (left axis)
Federal Budget Deficit/Surplus as % of GDP (right axis)
Note: 1) Treasury swap spread = Treasury yield – swap rate (between bonds of comparable maturity); swap rate is the fixed interest rate that the buyer demands in
exchange for the uncertainty of paying the short-term LIBOR (floating) rate over time; swap rates are generally higher than Treasury yields with corresponding
maturities as they include incremental credit risk associated with the banks that provide swaps compared to Treasuries, which are viewed as risk-free. 2)10-year
Treasury swap spread turned negative on 3/24/10, while 30-year Treasury swap spread turned negative in 10/08 and shorter-term Treasury swap spreads are still
positive. Source: Bloomberg.
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USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 420

Financial Challenges for Countries are Not Uncommon
� Of course, there are no exact precedents for the financial
challenges faced by America and many other countries in
the world today.
� Yet a quick overview of a few government and corporate
financial crises may illustrate how managements have
addressed – or failed to address – the problems of their day.
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USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction
421
History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, But It Often Rhymes 1 –
What Can We Learn From These Credit Crises?
Sovereign
Credit Crisis
State / Local
Financial Woes
Corporate
Bankruptcy
2010 – Greece
($374B Debt Outstanding –
113% of GDP)
2009 – Dubai
($26B – 32% of GDP)
2001 – Argentina
($132B – 130% of GDP)
1998 – Russia
($73B – 27% of GDP)
1975 – New York City
($14B* Debt Outstanding)
2009 – General Motors
($95B Debt Outstanding)
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Note: 1) Attributed to Mark Twain. *NYC government and subsidiaries had $14B debt outstanding in 1975. Adjusting for
inflation, $14B of 1975 dollars would have been ~$50B in today’s dollars. Source: sovereign data points per IMF and
World Bank. NYC data point per California Research Bureau “Overview of New York City’s Fiscal Crisis,” 3/1/1995.
USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 422
Simple Pattern Recognition From Historical Debt Crisis
Reveal Common Drivers (Leverage & Entitlements) + Triggers
Year of
Crisis
Debt Restructured
Amount
% of GDP
Long-Term
Drivers
Short-Term
Triggers
Key
Stakeholders
Greece 2010 $374B 113%
Rising Underfunded
Entitlement Spending
Financial Crisis
International Bond
Investors
Dubai 2009 26B 32
Leveraged Construction /
Real Estate Bubble
Financial Crisis
International Bond
Investors
Argentina 2001 132B 130
Rising Underfunded
Entitlement Spending +
Currency Peg
Financial Crisis
International Bond
Investors
Russia 1998 73B 27
Declining Productivity +
Currency Peg
Financial Crisis
International Bond
Investors
New York
City
1975 14B 1 --
Rising Underfunded
Entitlement Spending
Recession
Bond Investors +
Federal
Government
www.kpcb.com
Note: 1) NYC government and subsidiaries had $14B debt outstanding in 1975. Adjusting for inflation, $14B of 1975
dollars would have been ~$50B in today’s dollars. Source: sovereign data points per IMF and World Bank. NYC data
point per California Research Bureau “Overview of New York City’s Fiscal Crisis,” 3/1/1995.
USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 423
Lessons Learned: Historical Debt Crisis
� Rising Unfunded Entitlement Spending = Often a Long-Term Driver of Debt
Crisis
� Countries such as Greece / Argentina and cities such as New York all nearly
brought down by unfunded entitlement spending.
� Financial Crisis / Economic Downturn = Often the Short-Term Trigger of
Debt Crisis
� All cases had similar short-term triggers.
� External Forces = Often Key Stakeholders in Crisis & Driving Ensuing
Changes
� Most sovereign credit crises + ensuing reforms were driven by loss of
confidence of international bond investors.
� New York City’s near default was driven by demands from bond holders +
refusal of bailout from federal government.
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USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 424
While High Government Debt Levels Could Hasten Economic Recovery
Post Recession, There Are Many Long-Term Negative Consequences
� Crowding Out Investment � Lower Output & Income
� A growing portion of people’s savings would be diverted to purchase
government debt rather than toward investment in productive capital goods.
� Higher Interest Payments � Higher Tax Rates & Lower Output & Income
� Government may be forced to raise marginal tax rates and / or reduce
spending on other programs to meet interest payments.
� Reduced Ability to Borrow � Less Policy Flexibility
� In case of economic downturns or international crises, government may not be
able to raise substantially more debt.
� Increased Chance of Sudden Fiscal Crisis � Social / Economic Disruption
� Investors may lose confidence in government’s ability to repay debt & interest
without causing inflation.
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Source: Congressional Budget Office, “Federal Debt and the Risk of a Fiscal Crisis.” 7/10.
USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction
425
Lessons Learned: For Countries Burdened by High Debt Levels,
Austerity Measures are Necessary
Greece
Ireland
Spain
Portugal
2009
Deficit as
% of GDP
Gross Debt
as % of GDP
14% 113%
11% 66%
11% 54%
9% 78%
2009-2010 Austerity Measures New Revenue Streams
� Wage freeze & bonus cut of 14% on
all public sector employees
� Reduction in government contract
workers
� 11% reduction in pensions &
Increase in retirement age to 65 from
58
� 5-15% pay cut & 4% benefit
reduction for all public sector
employees
� $1.5B+ broad spending cuts in
healthcare & infrastructure
� Hiring freeze for public sectors
� Increase of retirement age to 67
from 60
� Total budget cut of $70B 10-13E
� Wage freeze on all public sector
employees
� Reduce state payroll via attrition
� Joint IMF–EU bailout of $146B
� Tax increases for VAT (+2%) /
fuel / alcohol / cigarette (+10%)
� Clamp down on tax evasion
� Carbon tax on fuel
� 1% tax rise on personal income
about 120K euros
� Sold $7B in new bonds
� 50% bonus tax on top bank
executives
� Privatize state-owned industries
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Source: Eurostat, European Commission, IMF, New York Times, Financial Times, BBC, Wall Street Journal.
USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 426
European Countries (including Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain) Have
Committed A Rising Share of GDP to ‘Social Benefits’ Over Past Decade
25%
Social Benefits Paid by Government as % of GDP, 1999 vs. 2009
Social Benefits Paid by Government as % of GDP
20%
15%
10%
5%
Greece
Austria
Italy
France
2009 1999
European Union 2009 Average = 17.1%
Germany
Finland
Belgium
Portugal
Denmark
Hungary
Luxembourg
Ireland
UK
Spain
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Source: Eurostat. ‘Social Benefits’ include both social insurance (comparable to Social Security and Medicare) and social
assistance benefits (comparable to Medicaid) provided by government units as well as all social insurance benefits provided
under private funded and unfunded social insurance schemes, whether in cash or in kind.
USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 427
Austerity Measures to Take Away Entitlement Benefits
Could Spark a Vicious Cycle
Less Revenue for
Corporations &
Small Businesses
Higher
Unemployment
Lower Consumption
Lower
Government Tax
Receipts
Less Investor
Confidence
Lower Productivity
Higher Tax Rates
Social Unrest
More Austerity
Measures
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USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 428
Social Unrest Can Shake Investor Confidence
And Contagion Can Spread
10%
10-Year Sovereign Yield Spread (over German Bonds) for Greece / Portugal /
Spain / Ireland, April 1 – May 10, 2010
10-Year Treasury Yield Spread (Over German Bond) (%)
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
4/22 – Greek civil servants
stage a 24-hour strike
5/6 – Greek parliament
formally approves austerity
package agreed w/ EU & IMF
5/5 – Violent protests in
Athens against proposed
austerity measures
4/1 4/4 4/7 4/10 4/13 4/16 4/19 4/22 4/25 4/28 5/1 5/4 5/7
Greece
Portugal
Spain
Ireland
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Source: FactSet.
USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction
429
Government Deficits and Changes in Sovereign Credit Default Swap Rates
= Positively Correlated
Change in CDS Premia Between 26 Oct 2009 and 27
May 2010, bps
Cumulative Government Deficits as % of GDP vs. Change in Sovereign CDS
between 2007 and 2011E
600
Greece
500
400
300
Portugal
R 2 = 0.1996
200
Italy
Spain
Ireland
100
0
0%
Germany
Japan
Netherlands
Austria
10% 20%
France
USA
30% 40%
UK
50% 60%
-100
Cumulative Government Deficits as % of GDP for 2007-2011 (10-11 Projections)
www.kpcb.com
Sources: OECD; Markit; National Data
USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 430
When Corporations Like General Motors Run Out of Cash,
Eventually They File for Bankruptcy
$200
$150
General Motors Balance Sheet, 2000 – CQ1:09
$27B
Cash*
6/09 – 3 rd Largest
Bankruptcy
Filing in USA
History
Assets / Liabilities / Net Worth ($B)
$100
$50
$
-$50
-$100
-$150
$12B
Cash*
Cash & Marketable
Securities
Assets (ex. Cash)
Accrued Pension +
OPEB Liabilities
Liabilities (ex. Pension
& OPEB)
Net Worth
(Shareholders' Equity)
-$200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
$23B
Short-term Debt**
2008
CQ1:09
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Note: *Includes cash & equivalents, as well as marketable securities; **short-term debt also includes current portion of longterm
debt. Source: General Motors.
USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction
431
General Motors –
Entitlement Spending Became Too Onerous for this Great American Company
1908 – Founded in Flint, Michigan to manufacture automobiles
1954 – Shipped 50 millionth automobile
1988 – Free cash flow peaked at $6.3B
1999 – Reached a peak market capitalization of $61B
2006 – Revenue peaked at $207B
2009 – Filed for bankruptcy
� Why did GM file for bankruptcy?
Products became increasingly uncompetitive. In addition, pension plans to
support 650,000 retirees and their dependents (compared with 80,000 active
employees in N. America as of 2010) rose to 4.8% of GM’s annual expenses and
$4,679 in annual pension payments per worker to former workers.
Source: General Motors, FactSet, DataStream, History News Network.
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USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 432
Comparing GM & USA, Inc…
USA
2010
General
Motors
2008
Gross Debt as % of GDP 93% 82% Gross Debt as % of Revenue 1
Federal Spending as % of GDP 24 114 Total Cost as % of Revenue
Federal Budget Surplus as % of GDP -9 -21 Net Income as % of Revenue
Interest Payments as % of GDP 1 2 Interest Payments as % of Revenue
% of Citizens Receiving Government
Subsidy or on Government Payroll
36 75
% of Total GM Population 2
Dependent on the company
www.kpcb.com
Note: 1) Gross debt of GM calculated as total liabilities – future OPEB & pension liabilities, as these liabilities are not
reflected in USA gross debt. 2) % of total GM population dependent on the company = all living retirees / (living retirees +
current workers). Source: White House Office of Management and Budget, OECD, Heritage Foundation, General Motors.
USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction
433
…Good News for GM Is It Has ‘Taken Its Medicine’ and Has
Begun to Implement a Successful Turnaround
Basic Framework of GM Turnaround:
� Focus on Expenses
� Eliminated some of the legacy entitlements - swapped employee
healthcare for equity ownership.
� Significantly changed operating efficiency - took out costs so that GM
was able to operate at breakeven at bottom of the cycle and turn cash
flow positive during other parts of its business cycle.
� Focus on Revenue
� Changed business model to move away from lowering cost to
improving vehicle quality, engineering and styling.
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USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 436
Summary
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USA Inc. | Summary
437
Highlights from F2010 USA Inc. Financials
� Summary – USA Inc. has challenges.
� Cash Flow – While recession depressed F2008-F2010 results, cash flow has been negative
for 9 consecutive years ($4.8 trillion, cumulative), with no end to losses in sight. Negative
cash flow implies that USA Inc. can't afford the services it is providing to 'customers,' many
of whom are people with few alternatives.
� Balance Sheet – Net worth is negative and deteriorating.
� Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities – Off-balance sheet liabilities of at least $31 trillion (primarily
unfunded Medicare and Social Security obligations) amount to nearly $3 for every $1 of debt
on the books. Just as unfunded corporate pensions and other post-employment benefits
(OPEB) weigh on public corporations, unfunded entitlements, over time, may increase USA
Inc.’s cost of capital. And today’s off-balance sheet liabilities will be tomorrow’s on-balance
sheet debt.
� Conclusion – Publicly traded companies with similar financial trends would be pressed by
shareholders to pursue a turnaround. The good news: USA Inc.’s underlying asset base and
entrepreneurial culture are strong. The financial trends can shift toward a positive direction,
but both ‘management’ and ‘shareholders’ will need collective focus, willpower, commitment,
and sacrifice.
Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September; Cash flow = total revenue – total spending on a cash basis; net worth includes
unfunded future liabilities from Social Security and Medicare on an accrual basis over the next 75 years. Source: cash flow per
White House Office of Management and Budget; net worth per Dept. of Treasury, “2010 Financial Report of the U.S.
www.kpcb.com
Government,” adjusted to include unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare.
USA Inc. | Summary 438
Drilldown on USA Inc. Financials…
� To analysts looking at USA Inc. as a public corporation, the financials are challenged
�
Excluding Medicare / Medicaid spending and one-time charges, USA Inc. has supported a 4% average net
margin 1 over 15 years, but cash flow is deep in the red by negative $1.3 trillion last year (or
-$11,000 per household), and net worth 2 is negative $44 trillion (or -$371,000 per household).
� The main culprits: entitlement programs, mounting debt, and one-time charges
�
�
�
Since the Great Depression, USA Inc. has steadily added “business lines” and, with the best of intentions,
created various entitlement programs. Some of these serve the nation’s poorest, whose struggles have
been made worse by the financial crisis. Apart from Social Security and unemployment insurance,
however, funding for these programs has been woefully inadequate – and getting worse.
Entitlement expenses (adjusted for inflation) rose 70% over the last 15 years, and USA Inc. entitlement
spending now equals $16,600 per household per year; annual spending exceeds dedicated funding by
more than $1 trillion (and rising). Net debt levels are approaching warning levels, and one-time charges
only compound the problem.
Some consider defense spending a major cause of USA Inc.’s financial dilemma. Re-setting priorities and
streamlining could yield savings – $788 billion by 2018, according to one recent study 3 – perhaps without
damaging security. But entitlement spending has a bigger impact on USA Inc. financials. Although
defense nearly doubled in the last decade, to 5% of GDP, it is still below its 7% share of GDP from 1948 to
2000. It accounted for 20% of the budget in 2010, but 41% of all government spending between 1789 and
1930.
www.kpcb.com
Note: 1) Net margin defined as net income divided by total revenue; 2) net worth defined as assets (ex. stewardship assets like national
parks and heritage assets like the Washington Monument) minus liabilities minus the net present value of unfunded entitlements (such as
Social Security and Medicare), data per Treasury Dept.'s “2010 Annual Report on the U.S. Government”; 3) Gordon Adams and Matthew
Leatherman, “A Leaner and Meaner National Defense,” Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2011)
USA Inc. | Summary 439
…Drilldown on USA Inc. Financials…
� Medicare and Medicaid, largely underfunded (based on ‘dedicated’ revenue) and
growing rapidly, accounted for 21% (or $724B) of USA Inc.’s total expenses in F2010,
up from 5% forty years ago
� Together, these two programs represent 35% of all (annual) US healthcare spending; Federal Medicaid
spending has doubled in real terms over the last decade, to $273 billion annually.
� Total government healthcare spending consumes 8.2% of GDP compared with just
1.3% fifty years ago; the new health reform law could increase USA Inc.’s budget
deficit
� As government healthcare spending expands, USA Inc.’s red ink will get much worse if healthcare costs
continue growing 2 percentage points faster than per capita income (as they have for 40 years).
� Unemployment Insurance and Social Security are adequately funded...for now. The
future, not so bright
� Demographic trends have exacerbated the funding problems for Medicare and Social Security – of the
102 million increased enrollment between 1965 and 2009, 42 million (or 41%) is due to an aging
population. With a 26% longer life expectancy but a 3% increase in retirement age (since Social
Security was created in 1935), deficits from Social Security could add $11.6 trillion (or 140%) to the
public debt by 2037E, per Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
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USA Inc. | Summary 440
…Drilldown on USA Inc. Financials
� If entitlement programs are not reformed, USA Inc.’s balance sheet will go from bad to
worse
� Public debt has doubled over the last 30 years, to 62% of GDP. This ratio is expected to surpass the
90% threshold* – above which real GDP growth could slow considerably – in 10 years and could near
150% of GDP in 20 years if entitlement expenses continue to soar, per CBO.
� As government healthcare spending expands, USA Inc.’s red ink will get much worse if healthcare costs
continue growing 2 percentage points faster than per capita income (as they have for 40 years).
� The turning point: Within 15 years (by 2025), entitlements plus net interest expenses
will absorb all – yes, all – of USA Inc.’s annual revenue, per CBO
� That would require USA Inc. to borrow funds for defense, education, infrastructure, and R&D spending,
which today account for 32% of USA Inc. spending (excluding one-time items), down dramatically from
69% forty years ago.
� It’s notable that CBO’s projection from 10 years ago (in 1999) showed Federal revenue sufficient to
support entitlement spending + interest payments until 2060E – 35 years later than current projection.
www.kpcb.com
Note: *Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff observed from 3,700 historical annual data points from 44 countries that the
relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 percent of GDP.
Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. We note that while
Reinhart and Rogoff’s observations are based on ‘gross debt’ data, in the U.S., debt held by the public is closer to the European
countries’ definition of government gross debt. For more information, see Reinhart and Rogoff, “Growth in a Time of Debt,” 1/10.
USA Inc. | Summary
441
How Might One Think About Turning Around USA Inc.?...
� Key focus areas would likely be reducing USA Inc.’s budget deficit and improving /
restructuring the ‘business model’…
� One would likely drill down on USA Inc.’s key revenue and expense drivers, then develop a
basic analytical framework for ‘normal’ revenue / expenses, then compare options.
�
�
Looking at history…
Annual growth in revenue of 3% has been roughly in line with GDP for 40 years* while
corporate income taxes grew at 2%. Social insurance taxes (for Social Security / Medicare)
grew 5% annually and now represent 37% of USA Inc. revenue, compared with 19% in 1965.
Annual growth in expenses of 3% has been roughly in line with revenue, but entitlements are
up 5% per annum - and now absorb 51% of all USA Inc.’s expense - more than twice their
share in 1965; defense and other discretionary spending growth has been just 1-2%.
�
One might ask…
Should expense and revenue levels be re-thought and re-set so USA Inc. operates near
break-even and expense growth (with needed puts and takes) matches GDP growth, thus
adopting a ‘don’t spend more than you earn’ approach to managing USA Inc.’s financials?
Note: *We chose a 40-year period from 1965 to 2005 to examine ‘normal’ levels of revenue and expenses. We did not choose the most recent
40-year period (1969 to 2009) as USA was in deep recession in 2008 / 2009 and underwent significant tax policy fluctuations in 1968 /1969, so
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many metrics (like individual income and corporate profit) varied significantly from ‘normal’ levels.
USA Inc. | Summary 442
…How Might One Think About Turning Around USA Inc.?
One might consider…
�
�
�
Options for reducing expenses by focusing on entitlement reform and operating efficiency
�
�
Formula changes could help Social Security’s underfunding, but look too draconian for Medicare/Medicaid;
the underlying healthcare cost dilemma requires business process restructuring and realigned incentives.
Resuming the 20-year trend line for lower Federal civilian employment, plus more flexible compensation
systems and selective local outsourcing, could help streamline USA Inc.’s operations.
Options for increasing revenue by focusing on driving long-term GDP growth and changing tax
policies
� USA Inc. should examine ways to invest in growth that provides a high return (ROI) via new investment in
technology, education, and infrastructure and could stimulate productivity gains and employment growth.
�
Reducing tax subsidies (like exemptions on mortgage interest payments or healthcare benefits) and
changing the tax system in other ways could increase USA Inc.’s revenue without raising income taxes to
punitive – and self-defeating – levels. Such tax policy changes could help re-balance USA’s economy
between consumption and savings and re-orient business lines towards investment-led growth, though
there are potential risks and drawbacks.
History suggests the long-term consequences of inaction could be severe
�
USA Inc. has many assets, but it must start addressing its spending/debt challenges now.
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USA Inc. | Summary
443
Sizing Costs Related to USA Inc.’s Key Financial Challenges
& Potential AND / OR Solutions
� To create frameworks for discussion, the next slide summarizes USA Inc.’s various
financial challenges and the projected future cost of each main expense driver.
� The estimated future cost is calculated as the net present value of expected
‘dedicated’ future income (such as payroll taxes) minus expected future expenses
(such as benefits paid) over the next 75 years.
� Then we ask the question: ‘What can we do to solve these financial challenges?’
�
The potential solutions include a range of simple mathematical illustrations (such as
changing program characteristics or increasing tax rates) and/or program-specific
policy solutions proposed or considered by lawmakers and agencies like the CBO
(such as indexing Social Security initial benefits to growth in cost of living).
� These mathematical illustrations are only a mechanical answer to key financial
challenges and not realistic solutions. In reality, a combination of detailed policy
changes will likely be required to bridge the future funding gap.
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USA Inc. | Summary 444
Overview of USA Inc.’s Key Financial Challenges
& Potential and/or Solutions
Rank
Financial
Challenge
Net Present Cost 1
($T / % of 2010 GDP)
1 Medicaid $35 Trillion 3 / 239%
2 Medicare $23 Trillion / 156%
3
4
Social
Security
Slow GDP /
USA
Revenue
Growth
$8 Trillion / 54%
--
Mathematical Illustrations
and/or Potential Policy Solutions 2
• Isolate and address the drivers of medical cost inflation
• Improve efficiency / productivity of healthcare system
• Reduce coverage for optional benefits & optional enrollees
• Reduce benefits
• Increase Medicare tax rate
• Isolate and address the drivers of medical cost inflation
• Improve efficiency / productivity of healthcare system
• Raise retirement age
• Reduce benefits
• Increase Social Security tax rate
• Reduce future initial benefits by indexing to cost of living growth rather
than wage growth
• Subject benefits to means test to determine eligibility
• Invest in technology / infrastructure / education
• Remove tax & regulatory uncertainties to stimulate employment growth
• Reduce subsidies and tax expenditures & broaden tax base
5
Government
Inefficiencies
--
• Resume the 20-year trend line for lower Federal civilian employment
• Implement more flexible compensation systems
• Consolidate / selectively local outsource certain functions
Note: 1) Net Present Cost is calculated as the present value of expected future net liabilities (expected revenue minus expected costs) for each program / issue over the
next 75 years, Medicare estimate per Dept. of Treasury, “2010 Financial Report of the U.S. Government,” Social Security estimate per Social Security Trustees’ Report
(8/10). 2) For more details on potential solutions, see slides 252-410 or full USA Inc. presentation. 3) Medicaid does not have dedicated revenue source and its $35T net
present cost excludes funding from general tax revenue, NPV analysis based on 3% discount rate applied to CBO’s projection for annual inflation-adjusted expenses.
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USA Inc. | Summary 445
The Essence of America’s Financial Conundrum
& Math Problem?
While a hefty 80% of Americans indicate balancing the budget should
be one of the country’s top priorities, per a Peter G. Peterson
Foundation survey in 11/09…
…only 12% of Americans support cutting spending on Medicare or
Social Security, per a Pew Research Center survey, 2/11.
Some might call this ‘having your cake and eating it too…’
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USA Inc. | Summary 446
The Challenge Before Us
Policymakers, businesses and citizens need to share responsibility for
past failures and develop a plan for future successes.
Past generations of Americans have responded to major challenges
with collective sacrifice and hard work.
Will ours also rise to the occasion?
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USA Inc. | Summary
447
Current Observations About America…
• On many fronts, USA Inc. is in great shape, but it has one big problem –
USA Inc. spends too much and, in effect, is maxing out its credit card. USA
Inc. must address the problem.
• In 2009, 64% of America’s revenue went to Social Security, Medicare &
Medicaid, compared with 31% in 1980 and 20% in 1970.
• Using current projections, 100% of America’s revenue in 2025 will go to Social
Security, Medicare, Medicaid and Net Interest Expense.
• This raises the question, ‘How will America pay for the likes of education,
national defense, homeland security, infrastructure improvement, R&D, law
enforcement, postal service, etc.?’
• USA Inc.’s fundamental tradeoff is that it must balance its FUTURE
(education) with its PRESENT (national defense & homeland security) and
its PAST (Social Security & Medicare & Medicaid).
Source: 2009 data per White House OMB, 2025 forecast per CBO’s Alternative Fiscal Scenario.
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USA Inc. | Summary 448
…Current Observations About America
• It’s Time to Rise to the Occasion, It’s America’s
Tradition…
• The essence of the ‘American dream’ is about the
underdog succeeding / the turnaround story…every
generation or so has an opportunity to rise to an occasion
(and sacrifice) and show why America (and its democratic
form of government) are great. For this generation, the
biggest challenge may be staving off financial hardship.
• Collective Sacrifice and Hard Work are the Two Inter-
Related Ways out of USA Inc.’s Problems…
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USA Inc. | Summary 452
Appendix
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USA Inc. | Appendix
453
Appendix
Additional Datapoints on Federal Debt
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USA Inc. | Appendix 454
Federal Debt Held by the Public vs. Gross Debt
� Federal Debt Held by the Public ($9 Trillion Outstanding, 62% of GDP in 2010)
�
�
�
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Value of all federal securities sold to the public that are still outstanding.
Represents the cumulative effect of past federal borrowing on today’s economy and on the
current federal budget.
Net interest payments represent a burden on current taxpayers.
� Gross Debt ($14 Trillion Outstanding, 94% of GDP in 2010)
�
�
Public debt + intragovernmental debt (related to entities including the Social Security Trust
Fund and federal employee / veterans’ pension fund) + net liability of GSEs (related to likes
of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac).
Represents a claim on both current and future resources.
� We Focus on Public Debt Levels
�
�
�
Public debt is the base for calculating net interest payments.
Gross debt level could be misleading (to take an extreme example, simply eliminating all
trust funds without changing promised benefits for the associated programs would
dramatically reduce gross debt from 94% of GDP to 62% of GDP without improving longterm
fiscal outlook at all*).
In the future, when intragovernmental debt + net liability of GSEs begin demanding
repayments, it is likely financed via material increases in public debt levels.
Note: *for more details, see James R. Horney, “Recommendation That President’s Fiscal Commission Focus on Gross Debt is
Misguided,” 5/27/10. Data source: White House OMB, CBO.
USA Inc. | Appendix 455
Public Debt = Gross Debt – Intra-Governmental Holdings –
Net Liabilities of Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs)
Other
Intragovernmental
Holdings
Social Security
Trust Fund
1960
Real Gross Debt
Outstanding =
$2.0 Trillion
6%
9%
Public Debt
$1.7T
Debt Held By
the Public
85%
Other
Intragovernmental
Holdings
Social Security
Trust Fund
Net Liabilities
of GSEs*
20%
2010
Real Gross Debt
Outstanding =
$13.5 Trillion
16%
2%
Debt Held By
the Public
62%
Public Debt
$9.0T
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Note: Data are inflation adjusted.* Net liabilities of GSEs assumes 50% loss ratio on $250B delinquent loans held by Fannie
Mae / Freddie Mac. Data source: Dept. of Treasury, White House Office of Management and Budget.
USA Inc. | Appendix 456
Gross Debt Level =
Approaching 100% of GDP
120%
USA Gross Federal Debt as % of GDP, 1940 – 2010
100%
Gross Debt As % of GDP
80%
60%
40%
Debt Held By
the Public
2010 Gross Federal Debt = 94% of GDP
20%
Intragovernment
Debt
0%
Net GSE Liabilities
1940 1946 1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006
Source: White House OMB.
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USA Inc. | Appendix
457
Gross Debt Level =
Would Exceed Current Statutory Limit of $1.43T* Within One Year
16,000
USA Gross Federal Debt vs. Statutory Debt Ceiling, 1990 – 2011E
14,000
USA Inc. Gross Debt
Statutory Debt Limit
12,000
Gross Debt ($B)
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010E
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Note: * As of 1/11. Source: White House OMB.
USA Inc. | Appendix 458
‘Top 75’ Countries Ranked by Net Debt as % of GDP…
Rank
Country
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2009 Net Debt
Outstanding ($B)
Y/Y
As % of Net Debt as % of GDP As % of 2009 Budget As % of 2009
World
05-09 2009 GDP World Surplus / World Gross Unemployment
Total 2009 2005 Change ($B) Y/Y Total Deficit ($B) Deficit
Rate
1 Zimbabwe $7 13% 0% 190% -- -- $4 4% 0% -$1 0% -- --
2 Japan 9,149 12 26 181 162 19 5,049 -5 9 -960 33 5% +1
3 Italy 2,434 0 7 116 106 11 2,090 -5 4 -0 -- 8 +1
4 Singapore 186 3 1 114 99 15 163 -2 0 -5 0 3 +1
5 Greece 374 8 1 111 99 12 338 -2 1 -27 1 9 +2
6 Egypt 198 16 1 105 -- -- 188 5 0 -27 1 -- --
7 Belgium 454 0 1 98 92 6 461 -3 1 -1 0 8 +1
8 Sudan 53 -6 0 97 -- -- 54 5 0 4 -- -- --
9 Hungary 104 -8 0 84 62 22 124 -6 0 9 -- -- --
10 Cote d'Ivoire 19 -3 0 81 -- -- 23 -- 0 0 -- -- --
11 France 2,028 5 6 77 66 11 2,635 -2 5 -105 4 9 +2
12 Portugal 167 3 0 76 63 13 220 -3 0 -6 0 9 +2
13 Germany 2,423 1 7 75 68 7 3,235 -5 6 -16 1 7 0
14 Austria 263 2 1 70 64 6 374 -4 1 -5 0 5 +1
15 India 854 -3 2 69 80 -12 1,243 6 2 31 -- -- --
16 Uruguay 21 -2 0 67 67 0 32 3 0 0 -- -- --
17 UK 1,444 3 4 66 42 24 2,198 -5 4 -49 2 7 +2
18 Canada 870 -5 3 66 70 -4 1,319 -3 2 44 -- 8 +2
19 Netherlands 503 -1 1 64 52 12 790 -4 1 4 -- 4 +1
20 Morocco 58 2 0 64 -- -- 91 5 0 -1 0 -- --
21 Ireland 140 19 0 62 27 34 227 -7 0 -23 1 12 +6
22 Albania 7 -3 0 60 57 3 12 3 0 0 -- -- --
23 Argentina 178 -7 1 59 59 0 301 1 1 14 -- -- --
24 Philippines 93 -2 0 59 71 -13 159 1 0 2 -- -- --
25 USA 7,811 23 23 55 37 17 14,266 -2 25 -1,438 50 9 +3
Top 1-25 $29,836 1% 86% 75% 67% 8% $35,595 -2% 61% $2,662 92% 8% 1
Global 34,632 8 100 68 66 2 57,937 -2 100 2,886 100 7 2
Source: IMF, Business Intelligence Monitor .
USA Inc. | Appendix
Y/Y
(pps)
459
…‘Top 75’ Countries Ranked by Net Debt as % of GDP…
Rank
Country
2009 Net Debt
Outstanding ($B)
Y/Y
As % of Net Debt as % of GDP As % of 2009 Budget As % of 2009
World
05-09 2009 GDP World Surplus / World Gross Unemployment
Total 2009 2005 Change ($B) Y/Y Total Deficit ($B) Deficit
Rate
26 Tunisia $22 -3% 0% 55% 55 0 $40 3% 0% 1 0 -- --
27 Ethiopia 18 29 0 55 -- -- 34 10 0 -4 0 -- --
28 Colombia 123 -5 0 54 54 0 229 0 0 7 -- -- --
29 Cyprus 12 2 0 54 68 -14 23 -2 0 -0 -- 5 +2
30 Poland 223 -11 1 53 47 6 423 2 1 26 -- -- --
31 Spain 757 20 2 53 43 10 1,438 -4 2 -125 4 18 +7
32 Kenya 15 2 0 51 -- -- 30 2 0 -0 0 -- --
33 Norway 187 -17 1 51 45 6 369 -2 1 38 -- 3 +1
34 Ghana 7 -11 0 48 -- -- 15 4 0 1 -- -- --
35 Bolivia 8 6 0 46 46 0 18 3 0 -0 -- -- --
36 Sweden 175 -5 1 44 51 -7 398 -4 1 9 -- 8 +2
37 Brazil 650 -6 2 44 44 0 1,482 0 3 40 -- -- --
38 Switzerland 212 5 1 44 53 -9 484 -1 1 -10 0 4 +1
39 Latvia 10 56 0 43 12 30 24 -18 0 -4 0 -- --
40 Malawi 2 15 0 42 -- -- 5 8 0 -0 0 -- --
41 Malaysia 84 0 0 41 44 -3 207 -2 0 0 -- -- --
42 Denmark 125 7 0 40 38 3 308 -5 1 -8 0 3 +2
43 Gabon 4 -25 0 38 -- -- 11 -1 0 1 -- -- --
44 Finland 91 -2 0 37 42 -4 242 -8 0 2 -- 8 +2
45 Turkey 219 -14 1 37 52 -15 594 -5 1 36 -- -- --
46 Czech Republic 68 6 0 36 30 6 190 -4 0 -4 0 7 +2
47 Slovenia 17 43 0 35 27 8 50 -7 0 -5 0 6 +2
48 Slovakia 30 10 0 34 44 -10 88 -5 0 -3 0 -- --
49 Croatia 21 -5 0 34 38 -5 62 -6 0 1 -- -- --
50 Australia 309 -3 1 34 36 -3 920 1 2 8 -- 6 +1
Top 26-50 $3,392 0% 10% 44% 44% 0% $7,682 -2% 13% $164 6% 6% 2
Global 34,632 8 100 68 66 2 57,937 -2 100 2,886 100 7 2
Y/Y
(pps)
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Source: IMF, Business Intelligence Monitor.
USA Inc. | Appendix 460
…‘Top 75’ Countries Ranked by Net Debt as % of GDP
Rank
Country
2009 Net Debt
Outstanding ($B)
Y/Y
As % of Net Debt as % of GDP As % of 2009 Budget As % of 2009
World
05-09 2009 GDP World Surplus / World Gross Unemployment
Total 2009 2005 Change ($B) Y/Y Total Deficit ($B) Deficit
Rate
51 Zambia $4 -16% 0% 32% 32 -- $12 6% 0% 1 -- -- --
52 Macedonia 3 1 0 31 47 -16 9 -- 0 -0 0 -- --
53 Ecuador 17 2 0 30 30 0 56 0 0 -0 0 -- --
54 Lithuania 11 45 0 30 18 11 36 -15 0 -3 0 -- --
55 Peru 37 0 0 29 29 0 127 1 0 0 -- -- --
56 South Africa 78 0 0 28 -- -- 277 -2 0 -0 0 -- --
57 Paraguay 4 -15 0 27 27 0 14 -5 0 1 -- -- --
58 Venezuela 95 11 0 27 27 0 353 -3 1 -9 0 -- --
59 New Zealand 29 -10 0 26 27 -1 110 -2 0 3 -- 6 +2
60 Thailand 64 1 0 24 26 -2 266 -2 0 -0 0 -- --
61 Namibia 2 2 0 24 -- -- 9 -1 0 -0 -- -- --
62 Tanzania 5 7 0 24 -- -- 22 5 0 -0 0 -- --
63 Senegal 3 -6 0 23 -- -- 13 2 0 0 -- -- --
64 Mozambique 2 -2 0 22 -- -- 10 6 0 0 -- -- --
65 Romania 35 29 0 22 16 6 161 -7 0 -8 0 -- --
66 Uganda 3 8 0 21 -- -- 16 7 0 -0 0 -- --
67 Bulgaria 7 -4 0 15 29 -14 45 -5 0 0 -- -- --
68 Nigeria 24 -20 0 15 -- -- 165 6 0 6 -- -- --
69 Angola 10 -18 0 15 -- -- 70 0 0 2 -- -- --
70 Cameroon 3 -8 0 14 -- -- 22 2 0 0 -- -- --
71 China 609 7 2 13 18 -5 4,758 9 8 -38 1 -- --
72 Kazakhstan 11 3 0 11 -- -- 107 1 0 -0 0 -- --
73 Algeria 13 -16 0 10 -- -- 135 2 0 2 -- -- --
74 Russia 92 -15 0 7 14 -7 1,255 -8 2 17 -- -- --
75 Estonia 1 15 0 7 5 2 18 -14 0 -0 0 -- --
Top 51-75 $1,163 0% 3% 23% 27% -4% $8,064 0% 14% $60 2% 6% 2
Global 34,632 8 100 68 66 2 57,937 -2 100 2,886 100 7 2
Y/Y
(pps)
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Note: China’s net debt may be under-reported as it excludes potential liabilities from bad loans of state-owned banks.
Source: IMF, Business Intelligence Monitor.
USA Inc. | Appendix
461
OECD Countries Ranked by Gross Debt as % of GDP
Rank
Country
2009 Gross Debt
Outstanding ($B)
Y/Y
Gross Debt as % of GDP
As % of
OECD Total 2009 2005
05-09
Change
2009 GDP
($B)
Note: Data for Slovenia and Estonia not available. Data may differ from Eurostat / national government figures. Gross debt data are not always comparable across
countries due to different definitions or treatment of debt components. Notably, USA and Australia gross debt include the funded portion of government employee
pension liabilities, which overstates their debt levels relative to other countries. Source: OECD.
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USA Inc. | Appendix 462
Y/Y
As % of
OECD Total
1 Japan $974 14% 27% 193% 175% 18% $5,049 -5% 13%
2 Italy 269 1 7 129 120 9 2,090 -5 5
3 Iceland 1 -8 0 123 53 70 12 -28 0
4 Greece 40 8 1 119 114 5 338 -2 1
5 Belgium 47 -1 1 101 96 5 461 -3 1
6 Portugal 19 4 1 87 74 13 220 -3 1
7 France 227 5 6 86 76 11 2,635 -2 7
8 Hungary 10 -13 0 84 69 16 124 -6 0
9 USA 1,184 17 32 83 61 22 14,266 -2 36
10 Canada 109 4 3 82 72 11 1,319 -3 3
11 Germany 247 -2 7 76 71 5 3,235 -5 8
12 UK 159 4 4 72 46 26 2,198 -5 6
13 Austria 26 -4 1 70 71 -1 374 -4 1
14 Ireland 16 23 0 70 33 38 227 -7 1
15 Netherlands 54 -6 1 69 61 7 790 -4 2
16 Spain 90 18 2 63 51 12 1,438 -4 4
17 Poland 25 -14 1 58 55 4 423 2 1
18 Finland 13 15 0 53 48 4 242 -8 1
19 Denmark 16 11 0 52 46 6 308 -5 1
20 Sweden 21 -8 1 52 60 -8 398 -4 1
21 Norway 18 -28 0 49 49 0 369 -2 1
22 Czech Republic 8 2 0 42 34 8 190 -4 0
23 Switzerland 20 -5 1 42 56 -15 484 -1 1
24 Slovakia 3 17 0 39 38 1 88 -5 0
25 New Zealand 4 3 0 35 27 8 110 -2 0
26 Korea 29 -3 1 35 27 8 833 -11 2
27 Australia 18 28 0 19 16 3 920 1 2
28 Luxembourg 1 -5 0 18 8 11 52 -11 0
OECD Total $3,648 9% 100% 90% 76% 14% $39,261 -4% 100%
Total Government + Private Debt in USA –
At Historic High of 360% of GDP
USA Total Credit Market Debt Outstanding as % of GDP, 1929 – 2009
350%
300%
U.S. Credit Market Debt / GDP (%)
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
Government
Corporates
GSE
Financials
Households
0%
1929 1934 1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Households Corporates Financials GSE Government
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Source: Dept. of Treasury, Federal Reserve.
USA Inc. | Appendix
463
Appendix
Useful Links
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USA Inc. | Appendix 464
Appendix – Useful Links
� Congressional Budget Office, “The Long-Term Budget Outlook,” 6/2010
http://cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=11579
� Congressional Budget Office, “Budget and Economic Outlook, Fiscal Years 2011 Through 2021,” 1/2011
http://cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=12039
�
Department of Health & Human Services, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, “The 2010 Annual
Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical
Insurance Trust Funds,” 8/5/2010 https://www.cms.gov/ReportsTrustFunds/downloads/tr2010.pdf
� Department of the Treasury, “2010 Financial Report of the United States Government,” 12/2010
http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/10frusg/10frusg.pdf
�
�
�
National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, “The Moment of Truth: Report of the National
Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform,” 12/1/2010
http://www.fiscalcommission.gov/sites/fiscalcommission.gov/files/documents/TheMomentofTruth12_1_20
10.pdf
Social Security Administration, “The 2010 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age
and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds,” 8/9/2010
http://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2010/tr2010.pdf
White House Office of Management and Budget, “Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year
2012,” 2/2011 http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Overview/
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USA Inc. | Appendix
465
Disclaimer
This report has been compiled by Mary Meeker and her co-contributors (collectively referred to below as
the “Contributors”) for informational purposes only. It is not intended to serve as the basis for investment,
legal, political, tax or any other advice. Furthermore, this report is not to be construed as a solicitation or an
offer to buy or sell securities in any entity, including any entity that is associated with the Contributors.
The information contained in this report has been compiled from public sources that the Contributors
believe to be reliable. While the Contributors find no reason to believe that the data relied upon and
presented in this report are factually incorrect, they have made no separate investigation or otherwise
independently verified the accuracy of such data. As such, the Contributors cannot guarantee the accuracy
of any of the data (raw or interpreted) and accordingly the Contributors make no warranties (express,
implied or statutory) as to the information in this report.
This report summarizes a significant amount of publicly available data, and is not intended to be allinclusive.
The Contributors have complied this report based on selected sources that they believe to be
most pertinent to the presented subject matter. Furthermore, the graphic illustrations are based on
generalized calculations and are provided for illustrative purposes. Readers are encouraged to conduct
their own analysis of the data underlying this report, as well as data from other sources, so as to come to
their own conclusions.
The information presented in this report represents the view of the Contributors, and does not necessarily
reflect the views of Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers or any of its associated management personnel,
investment vehicles, investors, portfolio companies or any affiliates or associates of the foregoing.
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USA Inc. | Appendix 468
Glossary
Accountable Care Organization (ACO) -
A health system model with the ability to
provide, and manage with patients, the
continuum of care across different
institutional settings, including at least
ambulatory (outpatient) and inpatient
hospital care and possibly post acute care.
ACOs have the capability of planning
budgets and resources and are of sufficient
size to support comprehensive, valid, and
reliable performance measurement. The
ACO model is one of the latest designs for
managing healthcare costs and especially
Medicare costs, and is gaining traction
among policymakers desperate to control
costs and boost quality in healthcare.
Accrual accounting - A system of
accounting in which revenues are recorded
when they are earned and outlays are
recorded when goods are received or
services are performed, even though the
actual receipt of revenues and payment for
goods or services may occur, in whole or in
part, at a different time. Compare with cash
accounting.
Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) - All income
that is subject to taxation under the
individual income tax after "above-the-line"
deductions for such things as alimony
payments and certain contributions to
individual retirement accounts. Personal
exemptions and the standard or itemized
deductions are subtracted from AGI to
determine taxable income
Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) - A tax
intended to limit the extent to which higherincome
people can reduce their tax liability
(the amount they owe) through the use of
preferences in the tax code. Taxpayers
subject to the AMT are required to
recalculate their tax liability on the basis of a
more limited set of exemptions, deductions,
and tax credits than would normally apply.
The amount by which a taxpayer’s AMT
calculation exceeds his or her regular tax
calculation is that person’s AMT liability.
American Recovery and Reinvestment
Act of 2009 (ARRA) - This act provided
appropriations for several federal programs
and increased or extended some benefits
payable under Medicaid, unemployment
compensation, and nutrition assistance,
among others. ARRA also reduced
individual and corporate income taxes and
made other changes to tax laws.
Asset-Backed Security - Security backed
by real estate or another type of asset; a
claim on an income flow, such as expected
interest payments on loans, payments on
leases, royalty payments, or receivables; a
claim on the principal of a loan; or a claim on
the expected appreciation of an asset.
Automatic Stabilizers - Taxes that
decrease and expenditures that increase
when the economy goes into a recession
(and vice-versa when the economy booms)
without requiring any action on the part of
the government. Stabilizers tend to reduce
the depth of recessions and dampen booms.
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xix
Bundled Payment (Healthcare) - Also
known as episode-based payment, defined
as the reimbursement of health care
providers (such as hospitals and physicians)
on the basis of expected costs for clinicallydefined
episodes of care. It has been
described as "a middle ground" between
fee-for-service reimbursement (in which
providers are paid for each service rendered
to a patient) and capitation (in which
providers are paid a "lump sum" per patient
regardless of how many services the patient
receives).
Business Cycle - Fluctuations in overall
business activity accompanied by swings in
the unemployment rate, interest rates, and
corporate profits. Over a business cycle, real
(inflation-adjusted) activity rises to a peak
(its highest level during the cycle) and then
falls until it reaches a trough (its lowest level
following the peak), whereupon it starts to
rise again, defining a new cycle. Business
cycles are irregular, varying in frequency,
magnitude, and duration. (NBER) See real
and unemployment rate.
Cash Accounting - A system of accounting
in which revenues are recorded when they
are actually received and outlays are
recorded when payment is made. Compare
with accrual accounting.
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid
Services (CMS) – US federal agency which
administers Medicare, Medicaid, and the
Children's Health Insurance Program.
Copayment – A flat amount paid out of
pocket per medical service, e.g., $5 per
office visit.
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) – A
non-partisan federal agency within the
legislative branch of the U.S. government,
charged with reviewing congressional
budgets and other legislative initiatives with
budgetary implications.
Conservatorship - The legal process by
which an external entity (in the case of
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the federal
government) establishes control and
oversight of a company to put it in a sound
and solvent condition.
Consumption - In principle, the value of
goods and services purchased and used up
during a given period by households and
governments. In practice, the Bureau of
Economic Analysis counts purchases of
many long-lasting goods (such as cars and
clothes) as consumption even though the
goods are not used up. Consumption by
households alone is also called consumer
spending. See national income and product
accounts.
Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) - An
annual increase in Social Security and other
entitlement payments to reflect price
inflation.
Current-Account Balance - A summary
measure of a country’s current transactions
with the rest of the world, including net
exports, net unilateral transfers, and net
factor income (primarily the capital income
from foreign property received by residents
of a country offset by the capital income from
property in that country flowing to residents
of foreign countries).
Cyclical Deficit or Surplus - The part of the
federal budget deficit or surplus that results
from the business cycle. The cyclical
component reflects the way in which the
deficit or surplus automatically increases or
decreases during economic expansions or
recessions.
Cyclically Adjusted Budget Deficit or
Surplus - The federal budget deficit or
surplus that would occur under current law if
the influence of the business cycle was
removed—that is, if the economy operated
at potential gross domestic product.
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Debt - In the case of the federal
government, the total value of outstanding
bills, notes, bonds, and other debt
instruments issued by the Treasury and
other federal agencies. That debt is referred
to as federal debt or gross debt. It has two
components - debt held by the public (
federal debt held by nonfederal investors,
including the Federal Reserve System) and
debt held by government accounts (federal
debt held by federal government trust funds,
deposit insurance funds, and other federal
accounts). Debt subject to limit is federal
debt that is subject to a statutory limit on the
total amount issued. The limit applies to
gross federal debt except for a small portion
of the debt issued by the Treasury and the
small amount of debt issued by other federal
agencies (primarily the Tennessee Valley
Authority and the Postal Service).
Deductible (Medical Insurance) - A fixed
amount, usually expressed in dollars in the
form of an annual fee, that the beneficiary of
a health insurance plan must pay directly to
the health care provider before a health
insurance plan begins to pay for any costs
associated with the insured medical service.
Deficit - The amount by which the federal
government’s total outlays exceed its total
revenues in a given period, typically a fiscal
year. The primary deficit is that total deficit
excluding net interest.
Defined Benefit Pension Plan – Retirees
receive predetermined monthly retirement
benefits from employers despite the funding
status / investment returns of their pension
funds.
Defined Contribution Pension Plan –
Retirees contribute specified amount to their
pension funds and receive variable monthly
retirement benefits depending on investment
returns. Examples include Individual
Retirement Accounts (IRAs) and 401(k)
plans.
Disposable Personal Income - Personal
income—the income that people receive,
including transfer payments—minus the
taxes and fees that people pay to
governments.
Economic Stimulus - Federal fiscal or
monetary policies aimed at promoting
economic activity, used primarily during
recessions. Such policies include reductions
in taxes, increases in federal spending,
reductions in interest rates, and other
support for financial markets and institutions.
Entitlement - A legal obligation of the
federal government to make payments to a
person, group of people, business, unit of
government, or similar entity that meets the
eligibility criteria set in law and for which the
budget authority is not provided in advance
in an appropriation act. Spending for
entitlement programs is controlled through
those programs’ eligibility criteria and benefit
or payment rules. The best-known
entitlements are the government’s major
benefit programs, such as Social Security
and Medicare.
Excise Tax - A tax levied on the purchase of
a specific type of good or service, such as
tobacco products or air transportation
services.
Federal Poverty Level (FPL) - Income
amounts set each February by the U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services
used to determine an individual's or family's
eligibility for various public programs,
including Medicaid and the State Children's
Health Insurance Program.
Federal Reserve System - The central
bank of the United States. The Federal
Reserve is responsible for setting the
nation’s monetary policy and overseeing
credit conditions. See central bank and
monetary policy.
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Fiscal Policy - The government’s tax and
spending policies, which influence the
amount and maturity of government debt as
well as the level, composition, and
distribution of national output and income.
See debt.
Fiscal Year - A yearly accounting period.
The federal government’s fiscal year begins
October 1 and ends September 30. Fiscal
years are designated by the calendar years
in which they end—for example, fiscal year
2011 will begin on October 1, 2010, and end
on September 30, 2011.
GDP price index - A summary measure of
the prices of all goods and services that
make up gross domestic product. The
change in the GDP price index is used as a
measure of inflation in the overall economy.
General Fund - One category of federal
funds in the government’s accounting
structure. The general fund records all
revenues and offsetting receipts not
earmarked by law for a specific purpose and
all spending financed by those revenues and
receipts.
Government-Sponsored Enterprise (GSE)
- A financial institution created by federal
law, generally though a federal charter, to
carry out activities such as increasing credit
availability for borrowers, reducing borrowing
costs, or enhancing liquidity in particular
sectors of the economy, notably agriculture
and housing. Two housing GSEs (Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac) were taken into
federal conservatorship in 2008.
Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) - A
managed care plan that combines the
function of insurer and provider to give
members comprehensive health care from a
network of affiliated providers. Enrollees
typically pay limited copayments and are
usually required to select a primary care
physician through whom all care must be
coordinated. HMOs generally will not
reimburse all costs for services obtained
from a non-network provider or without a
primary care physician's referral. HMOs
often emphasize prevention and careful
assessment of medical necessity.
Independent Payment Advisory Board
(IPAB) - A 15-member Independent
Payment Advisory Board created under
PPACA with significant authority with
respect to Medicare payment rates.
Beginning in 2014, in any year in which the
Medicare per capita growth rate exceeded a
target growth rate, the IPAB would be
required to recommend Medicare spending
reductions. The recommendations would
become law unless Congress passed an
alternative proposal that achieved the same
level of budgetary savings. Subject to some
limitations—hospitals, for example, would be
exempt until 2020—the IPAB could
recommend spending reductions affecting
Medicare providers and suppliers, as well as
Medicare Advantage and Prescription Drug
Plans.
Labor Force - The number of people age 16
or older in the civilian non-institutional
population who have jobs or who are
available for work and are actively seeking
jobs. (The civilian non-institutional
population excludes members of the armed
forces on active duty and people in penal or
mental institutions or in homes for the elderly
or infirm.) The labor force participation rate
is the labor force as a percentage of the
civilian non-institutional population age 16 or
older.
Marginal Tax Rate - The tax rate that would
apply to an additional dollar of a taxpayer’s
income. Compare with effective tax rate and
statutory tax rate.
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Medicaid - Public health insurance program
that provides coverage for low-income
persons for acute and long-term care. It is
financed jointly by state and federal funds
(the federal government pays at least 50
percent of the total cost in each state) and is
administered by states within broad federal
guidelines.
Medicare - Federal health insurance
program for virtually all persons age 65 and
older, and permanently disabled persons
under age 65, who qualify by receiving
Social Security Disability Insurance.
Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBSs) -
Securities issued by financial institutions to
investors with the payments of interest and
principal backed by the payments on a
package of mortgages. MBSs are structured
by their sponsors to create multiple classes
of claims, or tranches, of different seniority,
based on the cash flows from the underlying
mortgages. Investors holding securities in
the safest, or most senior, tranche stand first
in line to receive payments from borrowers
and require the lowest contractual interest
rate of all the tranches. Investors holding the
least senior securities stand last in line to
receive payments, after all more senior
claims have been paid. Hence, they are first
in line to absorb losses on the underlying
mortgages. In return for assuming that risk,
holders of the least senior tranche require
the highest contractual interest rate of all the
tranches.
National Commission on Fiscal
Responsibility and Reform - A bipartisan
commission created by President Obama to
address the nation's fiscal challenges. The
Commission is charged with identifying
policies to improve the fiscal situation in the
medium term and to achieve fiscal
sustainability over the long run. Specifically,
the Commission shall propose
recommendations designed to balance the
budget, excluding interest payments on the
debt, by 2015. In addition, the Commission
shall propose recommendations that
meaningfully improve the long-run fiscal
outlook, including changes to address the
growth of entitlement spending and the gap
between the projected revenues and
expenditures of the Federal Government.
Net Interest - In the federal budget, net
interest comprises the government’s interest
payments on debt held by the public (as
recorded in budget function 900), offset by
interest income that the government
receives on loans and cash balances and by
earnings of the National Railroad Retirement
Investment Trust. See budget function and
debt.
Office of Management and Budget (OMB)
– White House office responsible for
devising and submitting the president’s
annual budget proposal to Congress.
Organization for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD) – An
international organization of 31 developed
and emerging countries (see list on slide
354) with a shared commitment to
democracy and the market economy.
Other Post-Employment Benefits (OPEB)
– An accounting concept created by the
Governmental Accounting Standards Board
(GASB) by pronouncements designed to
address expenses that entities may or may
not be legally bound to pay, but pay as a
moral obligation (such as retirees’
healthcare costs).
Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) - Procedures
established in House and Senate rules that
are intended to ensure that laws that affect
direct spending or revenues are budget
neutral. The Senate and the House have
had such rules in place since 1993 and
2007, respectively.
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PEP / Pease (Tax Policy) - PEP is Personal
Exemption Phase-out designed to eliminate
personal income exemptions for high
earners; 3) Pease is a similar phase-out, but
instead of applying to personal exemption, it
applies to most of the itemized deductions of
a taxpayer’s claims (mortgage interest,
charitable gifts, state & local taxes paid,
etc.); Pease is named after Representative
Donald Pease (D-OH) who pushed for its
enactment in 1990.
Present Value - A single number that
expresses a flow of current and future
income (or payments) in terms of an
equivalent lump sum received (or paid)
today. The present value depends on the
rate of interest used (the discount rate). For
example, if $100 is invested on January 1 at
an annual interest rate of 5 percent, it will
grow to $105 by January 1 of the next year.
Hence, at an annual 5 percent interest rate,
the present value of $105 payable a year
from today is $100.
Patient Protection and Affordable Care
Act (PPACA) – A federal statute as the
result of the healthcare reform. Signed into
law on 3/23/10, the PPACA aims to expand
Medicaid eligibility, incentivize businesses to
provide health care benefits, prohibit denial
of coverage/claims based on pre-existing
conditions, establish health insurance
exchanges, and support for medical
research. The costs of these provisions are
offset by a variety of taxes, fees, and costsaving
measures, such as new Medicare
taxes for high-income brackets, taxes on
indoor tanning, improved fairness in the
Medicare Advantage program relative to
traditional Medicare, and fees on medical
devices and pharmaceutical companies.
Productivity - Average real output per unit
of input. Labor productivity is average real
output per hour of labor. The growth of labor
productivity is defined as the growth of real
output that is not explained by the growth of
labor input alone. Total factor productivity is
average real output per unit of combined
labor and capital services. The growth of
total factor productivity is defined as the
growth of real output that is not explained by
the growth of labor and capital. Labor
productivity and total factor productivity differ
in that increases in capital per worker raise
labor productivity but not total factor
productivity.
Tax Expenditures - Losses to the U.S.
treasury from granting certain deductions,
exemptions, or credits to specific categories
of taxpayers. Tax breaks are one method
Congress uses to promote certain policy
objectives. For example, deductions for
mortgages encourage home ownership,
while credits for childcare expenses allow
single parents to work. Tax expenditures are
an alternative to direct government spending
on policy programs.
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) -
A program that permits the Secretary of the
Treasury to purchase or insure troubled
financial assets. Authority for the program
was initially set by the Emergency Economic
Stabilization Act of 2008 at $700 billion in
assets outstanding at any one time and
remains in effect until October 3, 2010. The
TARP’s activities have included the
purchase of preferred stock from financial
institutions, support to automakers and
related businesses, a program to avert
housing foreclosures, and partnerships with
the private sector.
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Trust Funds - In the federal accounting
structure, accounts designated by law as
trust funds (regardless of any other meaning
of that term). Trust funds record the
revenues, offsetting receipts, or offsetting
collections earmarked for the purpose of the
fund, as well as budget authority and outlays
of the fund that are financed by those
revenues or receipts. The federal
government has more than 200 trust funds.
The largest and best known finance major
benefit programs (including Social Security
and Medicare) and infrastructure spending
(such as the Highway Trust Fund and the
Airport and Airway Trust Fund).
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Index
Accounting, Government, 31
ARRA, 200-203
Balance Sheet, 209-217
Budgeting, Government, 32
Business Lines, 38-43
CBO (Congressional Budget Office)
Entitlement Spending, 77
Forecasts, 11
Healthcare, 313
Long Term Outlook, 174, 175, 270
Policy Options, 262-264, 324-326
Tort Reform Proposals, 313, 314
Cash Flow, 14, 15, 26, 27, 33
Competitiveness, 390-394
Consequences of Inaction, 413-434
Austerity Measures, 426
Credit Rating, 419
Credit / Debt Crisis, 422-430
Deficits / Swap Rate Correlation, 430
Public Debt, Net Worth vs. Peers, 416-417
Short Term / Long Term, 415
Social Unrest, CDS, 429
Costs & Headcount, 345-348
Debt
Composition, 168-172
Crisis, 422-447
Level, 145-160, 247
Defense Spending, 38-41, 63-70
by % GDP, 65, 68
by Country, Rank 67
by Number of Troops, 69, 70
by Type, 64
Deficit 35, 36, 54, 56
Deficit Commission, 256, 265, 326-328, 352,
353, 410, 465
Disability Insurance, 39
Economist vs. Investor Language, 36
Education, 377-382
Employment, 383-388
Entitlement + Interest vs. Revenue, 174, 175
Entitlement
Covered Population, 86
Expanded Eligibility, 87
History, 74, 75
Income per Beneficiary, 89
Income vs Personal Savings, 90
Inflation Indexed, 250
Not Contracts, 251
Programs, 15, 17, 37, 43
Social Security % of income, 92
Spending, 72-82
Spending, "Unfunded", 82, 83
Spending Breakdown, 80, 81
Spending Deficit, 75
Spending per Household, 74
Trust Funds, 76, 77
Unfunded, 247
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac, 182-187, 194-199
Federal Wages & Benefits, 335-337
Financial Challenges, 20, 21, 37, 49
GDP, 44, 356-368, 392, 405, 408
General Motors, 431-434
Growth, Sustainable Economic, 356-368
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Headcount, 346-348
Healthcare, 16, 39
Costs 118-120, 279
Indicators, 112, 307
Performance, Life Expectancy, 111
Reform (PPACA), 114-120
Spend, 105-120
Spend vs. OECD countries, 108-112
Spend by funding source, 106
Spend per capita vs. OECD countries, 109
Spend vs. Education, 105
Income Statement, 54, 54-60
India GDP, 44
Infrastructure, 373-376
Interest Rates, 161-167
Medicaid, 16, 95-99, 280-328
Enrollment, Payments Up, 97
Underfunded, 96
State Budgets, 99
Medicare, 16, 43, 101-107, 280-328
Enrollment, Payments Up, 103
Medicare, Medicaid Beneficiaries, 86
Medicare, Medicaid per Beneficiary, 85
Medicare, Medicaid Underfunded, 84
Underfunded, 102
Medicare & Medicaid Restructure, 280-328
CBO Policy Options, 323-325
Deficit Commission Options, 326-328
Economic Factors, 292-310
Growing and Aging Population, 283-286
Improve Efficiency / Productivity, 315-318
Legal Factors, 311-314
Possible Solutions, 290, 291
Reduce Services, Medicaid, 319-322
Social Forces, 282-328
Unhealthy Lifestyles, 287-279
National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility
and Reform, see Deficit Commission
Net Debt/EBITDA, 34
Net Income, 54
Net Interest Payments, 17
Net Margin, 15, 54, 56
Net Worth, 27, 30
Non-Core 'Business' Out-Sourcing, 350-351
Off Balance Sheet Liabilities, 14, 212, 438
One Time Charges, 177-205
Operating Loss, 35
Out-Sourcing, 350-351
Pensions, 339-341
P&L, 56, 58
Real Estate, 182-187
Retirement, 42, 257
Social Security, 16, 130-141, 255-267
Solutions, 21
Summary, 13-23, 437-449
Surplus, 54, 56
TARP, 188-192
Tax Policies, 395-410
Tax Rates, 396-399
Tax Subsidies / Expenditures / Broaden Base,
401-410
Technology, 369-372
Tech / Infrastructure / Education, 366-382
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Turnaround, 18, 19, 221-410
Competitiveness, 390-394
Constraints, 235
Costs & Headcount, 345-348
Drive Sustainable Growth 355-365
Expense Drivers, 231, 232
Expense Growth, 229, 230
Expenses, 252-353
Federal Wages & Benefits, 325-337
Imperatives, 234
Increase Employment, 383-388
Invest in Education, 377-382
Invest in Infrastructure, 373-376
Invest in Technology, 366-372
Unemployment
Benefits, 122-128
Insurance, 16
Rates, 267, 346
Unions, 342-344
USA Inc. Data Points, 47
USA Inc .Trends, 48
Wages, 336-337
War in Iraq, Afghanistan, Terror, 66
Invest in Tech / Infrastructure / Education, 366-
382
Japan Experience, 246
Non-Core 'Business' Out-Sourcing, 350-351
Operating Efficiency, 329-353
Pensions, 338-341
Principles, 244
Questions, 240-243
Reform Entitlements, 253-328
Restructure Medicare & Medicaid, 268-328
Restructure Social Security, 255-267
Revenue Drivers, 227, 228
Revenue Expense Correlation, 222
Revenue Growth, 225, 226
Sensitive, 245
Tax Policies, 395-410
Tax Rates, 396-399
Tax Subsidies / Expenditures / Broaden Base,
401-410
Unions, 342-344
Weak Economy, 236
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USA Inc. – A Basic Summary of America’s Financial Statements USA Inc.