File 022346
Email Chain About Oil Options and Geopolitical Risk Analysis (File 022346)
Email correspondence between Paul Morris, Jeffrey Epstein, Vinit Sahni, Nay Gupta, and Tazia Smith discussing oil options trading strategies in response to geopolitical tensions over Ukraine and Crimea in March 2014.
Summary
Nay Gupta provides detailed analysis of geopolitical risks related to the Ukraine crisis, including potential market impacts and sanctions implications. He recommends specific oil options trading strategies on WTI crude, discussing both short-dated (5-day) and longer-dated (35-day) expiry options with various strike prices. The correspondence includes technical trading recommendations and references to Bloomberg data for pricing. Tazia Smith is noted as a potential source for additional street liquidity on these options positions.
From:Sent:To:Subject:Attachments:Paul Morris [1111111111111111110111114111111111114]3/14/2014 10:27:39 PMJeffrey Epstein [jeeyacation@gmail.com]Re: Oil options [C]graycol.gifImportance: HighClassification: ConfidentialI do want to talk to u about this, they spent too much thinking about options here, let me know when u have couple minutes.Vinit Sahni-----Original Message-----From: Vinit SahniSent: 03/13/2014 09:47 PM EDTTo: jeevacation@gmail.comCc: Paul MorrisSubject: Fw: Oil optionsClassification: External CommunicationJeffrey - apologise if this long to execute next time well be much quicker.Nay GuptaOriginal Message-----From: Nay GuptaSent: 03/12/2014 09:35 PM GDTTo: njeevacation@gmail.com" <jeevacation@gmail.com>Cc: Tazia Smith; Paul Morris/db/Subject: Oil optionsJeffreyVinit Sahni/db/IIIIIIIIIIIIJust got off the phone with Vinit.DB stopped marketmaking OTC oil options - for short dated Pd go for exch traded - better liquidity and lower transaction costs in andout.My central scenario - Kerry Lavrov meeting Friday will be a bust and the Crimea referendum this weekend will result in "yes" giventhe 59pct ethic Russian makeup. Sunday/ Monday sanction rhetoric from ranging from g8 expulsion to Iran-style bank embargo israised a notch. Russia follows with more threats of counter-sanctions. My sense is the Obama 5m of 696m SPR release is to showMerkel and co he will step in. He needs to because there are 8 small European and Baltic countries that rec 70%+ of their gas fromRussia. Germany gets 30%.Cross asset correlations outside of the US are increasing past few days - eg copper and the Turkish lira hourly charts are on top of eachother past 4 days. I'm worried there is a 30-40pct(?) chance of a hard risk off move in markets in first half of next week - more focusedon European equities, copper, EM FX (Turkey, ZAR, Ruble etc) than SPX. In that scenario oil is way up.Exchange WTI calls - there are 2 options (as of 3pm est):5day expiry 17march 2014 underlying clj4 97.92and35d expiry 16apri12014 underlying clk4 97.59** The 5 day options are a bit short - one possibility is sell a 3usd out of the money put (95.5 strike) for 20cents and buy a 2usd OTM100 call for 25. Net pay Scents. But 5d is a bit short for me.**For 35d expiry You could look at selling 91.50 (6usd OTM put) for 56cents and buying 103c (5.5usd OTM) for 58cents or the 102c(4.5usd OTM) for 76cents.CL1 <comdty> OMON on Bloomberg has live strikes and bid/ask.HOUSE OVERSIGHT 022346If 5d is too short and 35d is too long / not enough gamma, Tazia may be able to source liquidity from the street. Am Cc'ing her for anylive pricing or additional commentBestNayThis communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information.If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communicationin error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy thiscommunication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of thematerial in this communication is strictly forbidden.Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the informationcontained in this communication should not be regarded as such.HOUSE OVERSIGHT 022347